Geopolitics markets, explained
Geopolitics
Geopolitical market movers, source trails, and context for diplomacy, conflict, sanctions, elections, and official state communications.
Moving now
Biggest recent shifts
Why these markets move
Geopolitical markets are sensitive to official statements, state media, diplomatic calendars, troop movements, sanctions, and negotiation leaks. Rumor and confirmation should be visually separated.
Signals to watch
- Official government statements
- Diplomatic meetings and deadlines
- Independent reporting that confirms or weakens rumors
What changed recently
Recent market explanations
October 31, 2026 in NATO x Russia military clash by market jumps: Yes odds 12.5% → 39.5%
October 31, 2026 moved higher from 12.5% to 39.5% (+27.0 points) between 2026-08-19T20:03:05.713Z and 2026-08-20T20:03:05.713Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
August 31, 2026 in NATO x Russia military clash by market jumps: Yes odds 2.6% → 36.5%
August 31, 2026 moved higher from 2.6% to 36.5% (+33.9 points) between 2026-08-19T20:03:05.713Z and 2026-08-20T20:03:05.713Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
December 31, 2026 in NATO x Russia military clash by market jumps: Yes odds 23% → 47%
December 31, 2026 moved higher from 23.0% to 47.0% (+24.0 points) between 2026-08-19T20:03:05.713Z and 2026-08-20T20:03:05.713Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
August 31, 2026 in US announces end of Iranian blockade by market slips: Yes odds 21.5% → 15.5%
August 31, 2026 moved lower from 21.5% to 15.5% (-6.0 points) between 2026-08-15T21:00:15.000Z and 2026-08-16T21:33:05.308Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
U.S. report on Iranian port blockade talks coincides with August 31 contract jump
The August 31, 2026 Yes contract rose from 72.0% to 75.5% over the 24 hours from August 7 to August 8, 2026. The move came alongside a report that the U.S. was set to lift the Iranian port blockade amid Strait of Hormuz crisis talks, though the causal link is not confirmed.
Polymarket odds for August 31, 2026 surged after report of U.S. move on Iranian port blockade
The August 31, 2026 “Yes” contract rose from 67.5% to 74.5% over the 24 hours ending August 7, 2026. The move came after a Crypto Briefing report said the U.S. was set to lift the Iranian port blockade amid Strait of Hormuz crisis talks.
Newly eligible
New geopolitics markets
NATO x Russia military clash by...?: Odds, News &...
No 81.0% · Sourced timeline
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?: Odds,...
No 96.0% · Sourced timeline
Ukraine election held by...?: Odds, News & Timeline
No 94.5% · Sourced timeline
Ukraine election called by...?: Odds, News & Timeline
No 85.5% · Sourced timeline
Will Russia capture Sumy by...?: Odds, News & Timeline
No 92.0% · Sourced timeline
Putin out as President of Russia by...?: Odds,...
No 92.5% · Sourced timeline
Geopolitics
Latest movement explanations
Showing 100 of 100 matched markets.
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
Latest: The market repriced by +27.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
December 31, 2026
26%
October 31, 2026
14%
August 31, 2026
5%
Largest 24h move
August 31, 2026 -31%
Volume
989K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Latest: The market repriced by -6.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
December 31, 2026
75%
October 31, 2026
60%
September 30, 2026
38%
Largest 24h move
August 31, 2026 -3%
Volume
518.3K
Ukraine election called by...?
Latest: The market repriced by +5.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
December 31, 2026
14%
August 31, 2026
0%
Largest 24h move
August 31, 2026 +2%
Volume
689
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
Latest: Yes odds fell 3.0 points, from 10.5% to 7.5%, across July 8, 2026 16:30 UTC to July 14, 2026 13:22 UTC.
No
92%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
+2%
Volume
51.1K
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
Latest: The June 30, 2027 Yes price fell 3.0 points, from 19.5% to 16.5%, over the stated 24-hour window.
June 30, 2027
14%
December 31, 2026
8%
September 30, 2026
2%
Largest 24h move
June 30, 2027 -1%
Volume
205.9K
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
Latest: Yes odds fell 3.0 points over 24 hours, from 9.5% to 6.5%, while a NATO summit ended with Trump meeting Zelenskyy and discussing Patriot air defense licensing.
No
95%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
87.5K
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
Latest: Yes odds for Ukraine election by December 31, 2026 moved down 4.0 points, from 0.115 to 0.075, over the July 4 to July 5 UTC window.
No
95%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
223.8K
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
No
75%
Yes
26%
Leader 24h
+28%
Volume
596K
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026
81%
there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026
4%
Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026
3%
Largest 24h move
there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026 +1%
Volume
474.9K
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
362.9K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 31
98%
September 30
89%
October 31
81%
Largest 24h move
September 30 +5%
Volume
304K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
8%
September 30
2%
August 31
0%
Largest 24h move
December 31 +2%
Volume
158.1K
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026
69%
the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026
9%
the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026
6%
Largest 24h move
no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026 +2%
Volume
64.3K
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
No
51%
Yes
50%
Leader 24h
+10%
Volume
20.3K
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
December 31, 2026
32%
September 30, 2026
8%
Largest 24h move
September 30, 2026 +8%
Volume
4.2K
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
No
93%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
-2%
Volume
150.6
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
No
96%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?
No
95%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
USD x Iranian rials End of September?
at least 2.2M Iranian rials on September 30
26%
less than 1.7M Iranian rials on September 30
20%
between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on September 30
20%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
No
95%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
December 31, 2026
6%
September 30
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?
December 31
11%
August 31
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?
No
92%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
No
91%
Yes
10%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
No
92%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026?
No
57%
Yes
43%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
before 2027
10%
by August 31, 2026
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
8 countries in 2026
61%
9 countries in 2026
31%
10 countries in 2026
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
4 countries in 2026
84%
5 countries in 2026
9%
6 countries in 2026
5%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
No
90%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
U.S. nuclear test by...?
December 31 2026
5%
September 30 2026
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
No
91%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
No
92%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31?
No
77%
Yes
24%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
No
93%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
No
85%
Yes
15%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
before 2027
3%
by August 31
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?
No
93%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
No
75%
Yes
25%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by...?
December 31
10%
August 31
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
No
90%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
No
95%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
No
93%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
NATO article 5 before 2027?
No
94%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
No
88%
Yes
13%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
No
92%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?
No
94%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?
No
87%
Yes
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027
12%
December 31, 2026
6%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
between 4.0% and 5.0%
89%
between 5.0% and 6.0%
8%
between 3.0% and 4.0%
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?
December 31, 2026
85%
September 30, 2026
39%
August 31, 2026
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?
No
92%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?
No
91%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?
No
87%
Yes
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027?
Yes
91%
No
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
China Annual Inflation 2026
between 0.6% and 1.0%
60%
between 0.1% and 0.5%
18%
between 1.1% and 1.5%
11%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?
No
88%
Yes
12%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
NATO dissolves before 2027?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Iran coup attempt by December 31?
No
92%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will US annex any territory in 2026?
No
94%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?
No
86%
Yes
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
No
89%
Yes
12%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
No
91%
Yes
10%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
No
84%
Yes
17%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
No
96%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Yes
83%
No
18%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31?
No
95%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?
No
96%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?
December 31
6%
September 30
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?
No
89%
Yes
12%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?
December 31
89%
October 31
79%
September 30
55%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Canada's population Up or Down this year?
Down
89%
Up
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Argentina Official USD Exchange Rate end of 2026? (Higher Brackets)
less than 1600.00 at the end of December 2026
44%
between 1600.00 and 1699.99 at the end of December 2026
31%
between 1700.00 and 1799.99 at the end of December 2026
8%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by December 31, 2026?
No
91%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Iran hold a presidential election by December 31?
No
55%
Yes
46%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026
59%
Juan Reyes Mejía González be arrested in 2026
57%
Juan Pablo Ledezma be arrested in 2026
48%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?
No
83%
Yes
18%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?
before 2027
97%
by October 31
96%
by September 30
95%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
39%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
35%
Flávio Bolsonaro
7%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
45%
Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
38%
Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
13%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
AfD
88%
SPD
14%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026?
No
69%
Yes
31%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?
No
81%
Yes
20%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Russia capture Toretske by...?
October 31, 2026
67%
September 30, 2026
38%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
No
94%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?
December 31, 2026
5%
September 30, 2026
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Yes
86%
No
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
No
92%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?
No
96%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
No
94%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Next Secretary-General of the United Nations
Rebeca Grynspan
40%
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett
21%
Rafael Grossi
15%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
António Guterres out by December 31?
No
52%
Yes
48%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30?
No
78%
Yes
22%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Russia capture Myropillia by December 31?
No
82%
Yes
19%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 31, 2026
9%
September 30, 2026
2%
August 31, 2026
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Russia enter Moskovka by...?
October 31
53%
September 30
18%
August 31
5%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30?
No
88%
Yes
12%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?
No
69%
Yes
32%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a