Geopolitics markets, explained
Geopolitics
Geopolitical market movers, source trails, and context for diplomacy, conflict, sanctions, elections, and official state communications.
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Last 24 hours
Biggest recent shifts
Geopolitics
Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
75.1%
75%
Largest mover: an outcome
Geopolitics
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
75.1%
75%
59% → 75% in 24h
Geopolitics
Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner
88%
88%
Largest mover: an outcome
Geopolitics
Will Kevin Acton win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?
88%
88%
74% → 88% in 24h
Context
Why these markets move
Geopolitical markets are sensitive to official statements, state media, diplomatic calendars, troop movements, sanctions, and negotiation leaks. Rumor and confirmation should be visually separated.
Signals to watch
- Official government statements
- Diplomatic meetings and deadlines
- Independent reporting that confirms or weakens rumors
What changed recently
Recent reporting
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026? — probability falls to 76.5%
The tracked probability fell to 76.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 79.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability falls to 54.9%
The tracked probability fell to 54.9%, down 13.0 percentage points from 67.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will Kevin Acton win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election? — probability rises to 88%
The tracked probability rose to 88%, up 3.5 percentage points from 84.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6? — probability rises to 74%
The tracked probability rose to 74%, up 44.5 percentage points from 29.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability falls to 67.95%
The tracked probability fell to 67.95%, down 3.0 percentage points from 71% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 83.05%
The tracked probability rose to 83.05%, up 7.9 percentage points from 75.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Newly eligible
New geopolitics markets
Putin meets with Iranian officials by...?
83.5% 83.5% · Data ready
Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?
83.5% 83.5% · Data ready
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?
1.8% 1.8% · Data ready
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8?
75.5% 75.5% · Data ready
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 22, 2026?
92.5% 92.5% · Data ready
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?
5.5% 5.5% · Data ready
Geopolitics
Markets worth watching
Showing 38 of 38 matched markets.
The filter applies to this curated selection.
Search all coverage →Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8?
76%
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6?
74%
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?
55%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$128.1
Latest: Probability moved from 67.95% to 54.9% (-13.05 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 6?
Yes
74%
No
26%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$126.3
Geopolitics
Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
75%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 62.1% to 74.95% (+12.85 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 25 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:50:25 UTC to 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC.
Geopolitics
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
Yes
75%
No
25%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$12.7K
Geopolitics
Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Will Kevin Acton win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?
88%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$398.8
Latest: Probability moved from 84.5% to 88% (+3.5 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Geopolitics
Will Kevin Acton win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?
Yes
88%
No
12%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$398.8
Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4?
Yes
55%
No
45%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.8
Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26?
82%
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 27?
46%
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 20?
0%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$8.4K
Latest: Probability moved from 74% to 81.5% (+7.5 percentage points). Observations were 30 minutes 18 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 02:00:28 UTC to 2026-10-21 02:30:47 UTC.
Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 27?
Yes
46%
No
54%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$61
Geopolitics
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 21, 2026?
100%
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 22, 2026?
93%
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?
87%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$51.9K
Latest: Probability moved from 79.5% to 76.5% (-3 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Geopolitics
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 22, 2026?
Yes
93%
No
8%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$725
Geopolitics
Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
82%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 75.2% to 83.05% (+7.85 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 25 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:50:25 UTC to 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC.
Geopolitics
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
Yes
82%
No
18%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$3.9K
Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 26?
Yes
82%
No
19%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$65
Geopolitics
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?
Yes
5%
No
95%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$7.2K
Geopolitics
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 31, 2026?
Yes
84%
No
17%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$102.9
Geopolitics
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?
Yes
87%
No
14%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.5K
Geopolitics
Putin meets with Iranian officials by...?
Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?
84%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$1.8K
Latest: Probability moved from 86.5% to 82% (-4.5 percentage points). Observations were 12 minutes 41 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 00:49:58 UTC to 2026-10-21 01:02:39 UTC.
Geopolitics
Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?
Yes
84%
No
17%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.8K
Geopolitics
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?
16%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 19% to 16% (-3 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 57 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:32:28 UTC to 2026-10-21 06:50:25 UTC.
Geopolitics
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6?
Yes
16%
No
84%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$7.1K
Geopolitics
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
36%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
9%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$236.3K
Latest: Probability moved from 13.5% to 10.5% (-3 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 44 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 15:01:00 UTC to 2026-10-20 15:16:44 UTC.
Geopolitics
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Yes
36%
No
64%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$42.3K
Geopolitics
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
87%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
61%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
47%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$71.6K
Latest: Probability moved from 40.5% to 45.5% (+5 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 42 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 06:32:36 UTC to 2026-10-20 06:47:18 UTC.
Geopolitics
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Yes
47%
No
54%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$5.7K
Geopolitics
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?
Yes
83%
No
18%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$54.6
Geopolitics
Pakistan military action against Yemen by...?
Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?
5%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$766.6
Latest: Probability moved from 5.75% to 13% (+7.25 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 26 seconds apart: 2026-10-17 21:00:49 UTC to 2026-10-17 21:17:15 UTC. The move also met PolySays' high-volume-shock threshold. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $635.6345 to $1,646.6345.
Geopolitics
Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?
Yes
5%
No
95%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$766.6
Geopolitics
Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?
2%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$219.6
Latest: Probability moved from 13% to 3.65% (-9.35 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 24 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 16:01:42 UTC to 2026-10-20 16:17:06 UTC.
Geopolitics
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 19, 2026?
Yes
2%
No
98%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$219.6
Geopolitics
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
Yes
9%
No
92%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$194.1K
Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8?
Yes
76%
No
25%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$76.5K
Geopolitics
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Yes
61%
No
40%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$6.2K
Geopolitics
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 20?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$8.3K
Geopolitics
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 8?
94%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 91.7% to 94.75% (+3.05 percentage points). Observations were 12 minutes 11 seconds apart: 2026-10-19 05:18:01 UTC to 2026-10-19 05:30:12 UTC.
Geopolitics
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 8?
Yes
94%
No
6%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$1.3K
Geopolitics
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Yes
87%
No
14%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$59.7K
Geopolitics
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?
Yes
77%
No
24%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$168