Geopolitics markets, explained
Geopolitics
Geopolitical market movers, source trails, and context for diplomacy, conflict, sanctions, elections, and official state communications.
Moving now
Biggest recent shifts
Why these markets move
Geopolitical markets are sensitive to official statements, state media, diplomatic calendars, troop movements, sanctions, and negotiation leaks. Rumor and confirmation should be visually separated.
Signals to watch
- Official government statements
- Diplomatic meetings and deadlines
- Independent reporting that confirms or weakens rumors
What changed recently
Recent market explanations
Kostyantynivka July 19 capture odds plunge from 21% to 6% in 24 hours
Polymarket’s Yes price for Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19 fell from 21% to 6% between July 14 and July 15, 2026. A Google News item noted a resolution-map disagreement, but the driver of the move is not confirmed.
Kostyantynivka July 19 capture odds plunge after a 24-hour slide
Polymarket’s Yes price for Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19 fell sharply over roughly 24 hours, dropping from 42% to 6% between July 14 and July 15. A Google News-linked item mentioned a resolution-map disagreement, but that does not confirm what caused the move.
Kostyantynivka July 19 capture odds fall sharply over 24 hours
The Yes price for Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19 fell from 13% to 5.5% between July 14 and July 15, a 7.5-point drop. The only matched article mentions a resolution-map disagreement, but that does not confirm what drove the move.
Russia attack in Sumy coincides with a 3-point Yes odds drop
The Yes side on Russia capturing Sumy by March 31, 2027 fell from 10.5% to 7.5% between July 8 and July 14, 2026. BBC reported overnight Russian strikes in Sumy on July 15, but the article does not establish a direct link to the market move.
Putin-exit odds slip to 16.5% for June 30, 2027 market
Polymarket’s June 30, 2027 Putin exit contract fell from 19.5% to 16.5% over the 24-hour window from July 14 to July 15, 2026, while related nearby-dated Putin-exit markets also sat lower.
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Yes moved higher from 3.2% to 9.0% (+5.8 points) between 2026-07-14T10:00:04.789Z and 2026-07-15T10:00:04.789Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Geopolitics
Latest news for active markets
Showing 100 of 100 matched markets.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
Latest: Yes odds for Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19 fell 15 points, from 21% to 6%, over about 24 hours.
December 31, 2026
94%
September 30
87%
August 31
70%
Largest 24h move
July 19 -11%
Volume
79.3K
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
Latest: Yes odds fell 3.0 points, from 10.5% to 7.5%, across July 8, 2026 16:30 UTC to July 14, 2026 13:22 UTC.
No
93%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
+2%
Volume
6.5K
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
Latest: The June 30, 2027 Yes price fell 3.0 points, from 19.5% to 16.5%, over the stated 24-hour window.
June 30, 2027
17%
December 31, 2026
10%
September 30, 2026
4%
Largest 24h move
June 30, 2027 -3%
Volume
189.9K
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by...?
Latest: Yes odds fell 3.0 points over 24 hours, from 9.5% to 6.5%, while a NATO summit ended with Trump meeting Zelenskyy and discussing Patriot air defense licensing.
December 31, 2026
7%
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026
0%
Largest 24h move
December 31, 2026 +1%
Volume
24.6K
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
Latest: The market repriced by +16.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
December 31
21%
June 30
0%
Largest 24h move
December 31 -7%
Volume
10.5K
Netanyahu out by...?
Latest: The market repriced by -9.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
end of 2026
37%
July 31
2%
June 30
0%
Largest 24h move
end of 2026 -10%
Volume
46.3K
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
Latest: The market repriced by -13.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
December 31, 2026
57%
September 30, 2026
30%
June 30, 2026
1%
Largest 24h move
September 30, 2026 +8%
Volume
11.4K
US recognize Somaliland by June 30, 2026?
Latest: The market repriced by -5.2 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
No
99%
Yes
1%
Leader 24h
+4%
Volume
1.7K
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?
Latest: The market repriced by -7.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
December 31
60%
June 30
2%
Largest 24h move
December 31 +20%
Volume
367.6
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?
Latest: The market repriced by -5.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
December 31, 2026
28%
June 30, 2026
2%
Largest 24h move
December 31, 2026 -5%
Volume
14.7K
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
Latest: The market repriced by -5.6 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
8 countries in 2026
34%
9 countries in 2026
28%
10 countries in 2026
12%
Largest 24h move
8 countries in 2026 -6%
Volume
970.4
Israeli parliament dissolved by...?
Latest: The market repriced by -11.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
July 17
88%
July 31
82%
July 16
72%
Largest 24h move
June 30 -6%
Volume
97.7K
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Latest: The market repriced by -6.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
No
60%
Yes
41%
Leader 24h
+6%
Volume
14.5K
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
609.8K
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
No
95%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
533K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
No
100%
Yes
0%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
520.9K
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
No
93%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
192K
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
December 31, 2026
26%
September 30, 2026
9%
Largest 24h move
September 30, 2026 -1%
Volume
177.9K
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
No
86%
Yes
14%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
171.1K
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 31, 2026
12%
June 30, 2026
0%
Largest 24h move
December 31, 2026 +1%
Volume
162.3K
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
No
100%
Yes
0%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
142K
Maduro guilty of all counts?
No
80%
Yes
21%
Leader 24h
-1%
Volume
119K
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?
No
99%
Yes
1%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
107K
NATO article 5 before 2027?
No
93%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
92.5K
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
No
88%
Yes
12%
Leader 24h
-4%
Volume
86.6K
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?
No
98%
Yes
2%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
78.4K
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
No
93%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
69.2K
Xi Jinping out by June 30?
No
100%
Yes
0%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
47K
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?
December 31
36%
June 30
3%
Largest 24h move
December 31 +5%
Volume
44.1K
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 31
8%
June 30
0%
Largest 24h move
June 30 -0%
Volume
43.9K
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
No
100%
Yes
0%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
38.2K
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?
No
75%
Yes
25%
Leader 24h
+11%
Volume
36.4K
Ukraine election called by...?
December 31, 2026
18%
August 31, 2026
7%
June 30, 2026
1%
Largest 24h move
August 31, 2026 -1%
Volume
35.4K
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
-0%
Volume
32.7K
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
No
100%
Yes
0%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
25.8K
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
No
100%
Yes
0%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
24.6K
Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?
No
98%
Yes
2%
Leader 24h
+2%
Volume
22.2K
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
No
99%
Yes
1%
Leader 24h
-0%
Volume
21.6K
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?
No
91%
Yes
10%
Leader 24h
-1%
Volume
18.9K
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
No
94%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
-0%
Volume
18.8K
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31, 2026
15%
June 30, 2026
0%
Largest 24h move
June 30, 2026 -0%
Volume
18.1K
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No
91%
Yes
10%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
17.6K
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
No
95%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
17.2K
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?
December 31, 2026
4%
June 30, 2026
0%
Largest 24h move
December 31, 2026 -2%
Volume
16.1K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No
91%
Yes
10%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
14.3K
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?
December 31
10%
June 30
0%
Largest 24h move
June 30 -0%
Volume
12.2K
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
No
80%
Yes
20%
Leader 24h
-2%
Volume
8.4K
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Yes
84%
No
16%
Leader 24h
+2%
Volume
6.9K
Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)
96%
New People (NL)
2%
the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%
Largest 24h move
United Russia (ER) -0%
Volume
6.3K
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?
No
100%
Yes
0%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
5.4K
Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
Amal Movement
3%
Lebanese Forces
3%
Lana – Social Democratic Party
1%
Largest 24h move
Lana – Social Democratic Party +1%
Volume
4.9K
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
-1%
Volume
4.8K
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
before 2027
14%
by August 31, 2026
7%
Largest 24h move
by August 31, 2026 +1%
Volume
4.5K
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson
76%
Ulf Kristersson
23%
Jimmie Åkesson
2%
Largest 24h move
Magdalena Andersson +2%
Volume
4.1K
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
4 countries in 2026
53%
5 countries in 2026
31%
6 countries in 2026
3%
Largest 24h move
5 countries in 2026 -3%
Volume
3.3K
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
No
73%
Yes
28%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
3.3K
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
No
95%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
-1%
Volume
2.8K
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
December 31, 2026
12%
June 30, 2026
2%
Largest 24h move
June 30, 2026 -0%
Volume
2.6K
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
December 31
31%
June 30
1%
Largest 24h move
June 30 -0%
Volume
2.1K
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?
No
100%
Yes
0%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
2.1K
Canada's population Up or Down this year?
Down
78%
Up
22%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
1.6K
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Yes
100%
No
0%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
1.5K
EU debt downgrade before 2027?
No
79%
Yes
22%
Leader 24h
-6%
Volume
1.4K
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?
No
100%
Yes
0%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
1.3K
Which cities will Russia enter by June 30?
Dopropillia by June 30
2%
Druzkhivka by June 30
1%
Kramatorsk by June 30
0%
Largest 24h move
Druzkhivka by June 30 +1%
Volume
1.3K
Quebec General Election Winner
Parti Québécois
63%
Coalition Avenir Québec
19%
Parti libéral du Québec
19%
Largest 24h move
Parti libéral du Québec -2%
Volume
1.2K
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by...?
December 31
98%
June 30
1%
Largest 24h move
June 30 +0%
Volume
1.1K
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by...?
December 31
15%
June 30
0%
Largest 24h move
June 30 -0%
Volume
850.2
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?
December 31
30%
August 31
13%
Largest 24h move
December 31 -2%
Volume
841.7
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
No
100%
Yes
0%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
812.2
Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?
Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30
3%
Tunisia recognize Israel by June 30
1%
Qatar recognize Israel by June 30
1%
Largest 24h move
Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30 +1%
Volume
766.9
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?
No
99%
Yes
1%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
698.4
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
December 31
17%
June 30
0%
Largest 24h move
December 31 -1%
Volume
611.1
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?
No
100%
Yes
0%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
566.2
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
December 31, 2026
10%
June 30, 2026
1%
Largest 24h move
December 31, 2026 +1%
Volume
485.3
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by...?
December 31, 2026
14%
June 30, 2026
1%
Largest 24h move
June 30, 2026 -0%
Volume
451
Masoud Pezeshkian out by...?
December 31
18%
June 30
1%
Largest 24h move
December 31 +1%
Volume
442.2
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
No
99%
Yes
1%
Leader 24h
-0%
Volume
434.1
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
before 2027
5%
by August 31
2%
by June 30
0%
Largest 24h move
before 2027 0%
Volume
417.1
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
No
98%
Yes
2%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
409.2
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
No
90%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
378.8
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?
No
100%
Yes
0%
Leader 24h
-0%
Volume
331.8
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
No
87%
Yes
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
311.3
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
No
93%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
-1%
Volume
264.6
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30?
No
100%
Yes
0%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
259
NATO dissolves before 2027?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
247.7
Ukraine coup attempt by...?
December 31
16%
June 30
0%
Largest 24h move
June 30 -0%
Volume
210.7
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
No
88%
Yes
13%
Leader 24h
+3%
Volume
205.5
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
No
90%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
194.5
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
between 4.0% and 5.0%
80%
between 5.0% and 6.0%
16%
between 6.0% and 7.0%
3%
Largest 24h move
between 6.0% and 7.0% +2%
Volume
164.8
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?
December 31
26%
June 30
1%
Largest 24h move
December 31 +5%
Volume
153.7
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?
No
100%
Yes
0%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
146.3
Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?
December 31, 2026
56%
June 30, 2026
1%
Largest 24h move
June 30, 2026 -0%
Volume
144.2
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
No
100%
Yes
0%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
120.8
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
No
98%
Yes
2%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
117.1
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
No
94%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
-1%
Volume
109.5
US x China Military clash before 2027?
No
93%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
108.5
New pandemic in 2026?
No
91%
Yes
10%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
90.8
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
86
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
No
88%
Yes
12%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
85.6