Canada's population Up or Down this year?
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
- Current leader
- Down 78%
- Leader 24h
- -6%
- Volume
- 1.6K
- Liquidity
- 1.1K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
Down
78%
-6% 24h
Up
22%
+6% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (.
Read the complete resolution rules
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest Down probability of 66%.
Story so far
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There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
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The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline