China Annual GDP Growth 2026
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
- Current leader
- between 4.0% and 5.0% 80%
- Largest 24h move
- between 4.0% and 5.0% -1%
- 24h volume
- 206.8
- Liquidity
- 146.6K
Top candidates
10 outcomes
between 4.0% and 5.0%
80%
-1% 24h
between 5.0% and 6.0%
16%
-0% 24h
between 6.0% and 7.0%
3%
0% 24h
between 3.0% and 4.0%
1%
+0% 24h
between 1.0% and 2.0%
0%
+0% 24h
Show all outcomes
between 2.0% and 3.0%
0%
+0%
below 1.0%
0%
0%
between 7.0% and 8.0%
0%
0%
between 8.0% and 9.0%
0%
0%
9% or higher
0%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Read the complete resolution rules
The GDP release will be made available here: If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
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See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest between 4.0% and 5.0% probability of 78%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline