Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dobropillia by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- December 31 60%
- Largest 24h move
- December 31 -4%
- 24h volume
- 367.6
- Liquidity
- 4.6K
Top candidates
2 outcomes
December 31
60%
-4% 24h
June 30
2%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dobropillia by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Dobropillia is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map ( by the resolution date. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Read the complete resolution rules
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify.
Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap ( may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest December 31 probability of 56%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 21 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31 moved higher from 40.0% to 60.0% (+20.0 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:12.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:20.881Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31" outcome in "Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?" made a sharp move from 40.0% to 60.0% between 2026-06-23T00:00:12.000Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:20.881Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by +20.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.