Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
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- Current leader
- December 31, 2026 32%
- Largest 24h move
- September 30, 2026 -2%
- 24h volume
- 4.2K
- Liquidity
- 41.6K
Top candidates
2 outcomes
December 31, 2026
32%
0% 24h
September 30, 2026
8%
-2% 24h
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Story so far
Needs a refreshThe market for Russia capturing Lyman by December 31, 2026 drifted down over a 24-hour window, with Yes odds falling from 61.0% on July 13, 2026 to 57.5% on July 14, 2026. The move appears to reflect CLOB price history, while a July 14 ISW assessment may provide battlefield context but does not clearly establish a direct cause.
No major update has changed the story in 46 days.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- CLOB price history shows the Yes price moved down 3.5 points over about 24 hours.
- A July 14 ISW assessment may provide contextual battlefield background, but no direct causal link is confirmed.
Unresolved questions
- What specific battlefield developments, if any, drove the odds decline?
- Did traders react to any new reporting, and if so, which reports mattered most?
- Will the market continue to soften or stabilize after this move?
People and institutions to watch
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
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