Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard ( by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- No 99%
- Leader 24h
- -0%
- 24h volume
- 434.1
- Liquidity
- 47.7K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
99%
-0% 24h
Yes
1%
+0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard ( by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at.
If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 100%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline