Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- December 31 17%
- Largest 24h move
- December 31 0%
- 24h volume
- 611.1
- Liquidity
- 23.4K
Top candidates
2 outcomes
December 31
17%
0% 24h
June 30
0%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map ( by the resolution date. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Moskovka" with a darker grey line.
If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, but the shading does not precisely match up with the border, such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (, will not count towards the municipality.
Read the complete resolution rules
Once Russia captures Kupiansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Kupiansk Location: The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap ( may be used.
If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map.
An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Reference images
Visual locations supplied in the market’s official description.
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest December 31 probability of 14%.
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline