Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET.
- Current leader
- December 31, 2026 56%
- Largest 24h move
- December 31, 2026 0%
- 24h volume
- 144.2
- Liquidity
- 5.1K
Top candidates
2 outcomes
December 31, 2026
56%
0% 24h
June 30, 2026
1%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building located at 48.40731° N, 37.17956° E in Bilytske, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date ET.
Resolves No
If the area is not shaded red by the specified date ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
The building will be considered captured if any part of the building is shaded red under a below-specified layer on the ISW map ( by the resolution date. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
Read the complete resolution rules
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the building under the above-specified conditions, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Building Location: Building Location in Bilytske: Bilytske Location: The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap ( may be used.
If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Reference images
Visual locations supplied in the market’s official description.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest December 31, 2026 probability of 45%.
Story so far
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Latest update
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline