How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- 4 countries in 2026 53%
- Largest 24h move
- 4 countries in 2026 -7%
- 24h volume
- 3.3K
- Liquidity
- 334.1K
Top candidates
12 outcomes
4 countries in 2026
53%
-7% 24h
5 countries in 2026
31%
+3% 24h
6 countries in 2026
3%
-1% 24h
7 countries in 2026
3%
0% 24h
8 countries in 2026
1%
0% 24h
Show all outcomes
9 countries in 2026
1%
-0%
10 countries in 2026
1%
-0%
11 countries in 2026
0%
-0%
12 countries in 2026
0%
+0%
15 or more countries in 2026
0%
0%
13 countries in 2026
0%
+0%
14 countries in 2026
0%
+0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
Read the complete resolution rules
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest 4 countries in 2026 probability of 43%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
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Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline