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The odds move first and the explanations come later, if at all. PolySays tracks meaningful Polymarket moves, attaches the evidence, and tells you plainly when there isn’t any.
How to read a PolySays move
ExampleWill the central bank cut rates in March?
YES
47%
34% yesterday47% now
Observed
The move is measured in percentage points. That is a fact about the price.
Evidence
We attach public sources and say how well they support an explanation.
Unexplained
No catalyst found? We say so. A price move is not proof of its cause.
Observed move → sourced evidence → or honestly unexplained. How we report
Last 24 hours
Changes are in percentage points, not percent returns.
A price move is an observation, not proof of its cause.
Past seven days
Published updates keep the observed move and the sourced context distinct.
The tracked probability rose to 88%, up 4.0 percentage points from 84% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
SC-01 House Election Margin of Victory
Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club vs. Al Fayha Saudi Club - Halftime Result
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Showing 24 of 60 matched markets.
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Search all coverage →Sports
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: Boluspor 1st Half O/U 0.5
75%
Umraniyespor vs. Boluspor: 1st Half O/U 3.5
50%
Spread: Boluspor (-2.5)
50%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 60% to 75% (+15 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 38 seconds apart: 2026-11-06 23:06:56 UTC to 2026-11-06 23:21:34 UTC.
Sports
Yes
25%
No
75%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$2.3
Elections
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-33 House election by 55%-60%?
97%
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-33 House election by 40%-45%?
0%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 55.75% to 96.85% (+41.1 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 33 seconds apart: 2026-11-05 13:20:18 UTC to 2026-11-05 13:36:51 UTC.
Elections
Yes
97%
No
3%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$1.6K
Elections
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-06 House election by 5%-15%?
99%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$80
Latest: Probability moved from 50.9% to 96.6% (+45.7 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 57 seconds apart: 2026-11-05 10:50:22 UTC to 2026-11-05 11:08:19 UTC.
Elections
Yes
99%
No
1%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$80
Sports
Will Lillestrom finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential?
50%
Will Red Bull Salzburg finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential?
3%
Will Viktoria Plzen finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential?
3%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 3.1% to 49.8% (+46.7 percentage points). Observations were 31 minutes 5 seconds apart: 2026-11-07 15:51:01 UTC to 2026-11-07 16:22:06 UTC.
Sports
Yes
3%
No
97%
Leader 24h
Total volume
—
Elections
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-16 House election by 3%-6%?
96%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$248.6
Latest: Probability moved from 52.65% to 95.15% (+42.5 percentage points). Observations were 11 hours 31 minutes 28 seconds apart: 2026-11-06 09:35:24 UTC to 2026-11-06 21:06:52 UTC.
Elections
Yes
96%
No
4%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$248.6
Elections
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 RI-01 House election by 40%-45%?
93%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$109.7
Latest: Probability moved from 88% to 94% (+6 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 6 seconds apart: 2026-11-05 17:04:22 UTC to 2026-11-05 17:21:28 UTC.
Elections
Yes
93%
No
7%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$109.7
Elections
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-06 House election by 0%-3%?
52%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 66.7% to 55.65% (-11.05 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 14 seconds apart: 2026-11-07 16:04:58 UTC to 2026-11-07 16:21:12 UTC.
Elections
Yes
52%
No
48%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$1.7K
Sports
Abha Saudi Club vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: Neither team to score first?
98%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 90.8% to 97.65% (+6.85 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 5 seconds apart: 2026-11-06 06:21:09 UTC to 2026-11-06 06:36:15 UTC.
Sports
Yes
98%
No
2%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$2.4K
Sports
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season?
7%
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season?
3%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 48.05% to 6.05% (-42 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 55 seconds apart: 2026-11-06 04:51:19 UTC to 2026-11-06 05:06:14 UTC.
Sports
Yes
7%
No
93%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$88.2
Elections
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Delaware be between 375,000 and 400,000?
95%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 50.45% to 94.4% (+43.95 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 20 seconds apart: 2026-11-05 15:22:27 UTC to 2026-11-05 15:38:47 UTC.
Elections
Yes
95%
No
5%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$6.4K
Sports
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)?
100%
Will Ljungskile SK be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)?
25%
Will Norrby IF be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)?
25%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$50
Latest: Probability moved from 0.15% to 25% (+24.85 percentage points). Observations were 30 minutes 33 seconds apart: 2026-11-07 14:50:54 UTC to 2026-11-07 15:21:27 UTC.
Sports
Yes
25%
No
75%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$7.4
Elections
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-10 House election by 9%-12%?
85%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 50.2% to 85.15% (+34.95 percentage points). Observations were 11 hours 31 minutes 28 seconds apart: 2026-11-06 09:35:24 UTC to 2026-11-06 21:06:52 UTC.
Elections
Yes
85%
No
15%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$3.9K
Market prices reflect participants’ expectations, not certainty. PolySays is for information, not trading advice. Read our disclaimer.