NATO article 5 before 2027?
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Current leader
- No 93%
- Leader 24h
- -2%
- 24h volume
- 171.2
- Liquidity
- 25.6K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
93%
-2% 24h
Yes
8%
+2% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 92%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline