U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- No 88%
- Leader 24h
- +3%
- 24h volume
- 0.7
- Liquidity
- 13.4K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
88%
+3% 24h
Yes
12%
-4% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.
High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Odds chart showing latest No probability of 95%.
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