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Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.

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Current leader
No 93%
Leader 24h
-1%
24h volume
6.5K
Liquidity
57.1K

Top outcomes

2 outcomes

No

93%

-1% 24h

Yes

8%

+1% 24h

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.

Resolves No

If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map ( by the resolution date. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.

If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

Read the complete resolution rules

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap ( may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

Reference images

Visual locations supplied in the market’s official description.

Sumy train stationExternal image · polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.comOpen original imageSumy locationExternal image · polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.comOpen original image

Living timeline · 1 significant update

Russia attack in Sumy coincides with a 3-point Yes odds drop

Odds chart

Probability over time

Odds chart showing latest No probability of 92%.

Story so far

Up to date

No story summary has been written yet.

This story reflects the latest meaningful update PolySays has published.

Latest update

Russia attack in Sumy coincides with a 3-point Yes odds drop

The Yes side on Russia capturing Sumy by March 31, 2027 fell from 10.5% to 7.5% between July 8 and July 14, 2026. BBC reported overnight Russian strikes in Sumy on July 15, but the article does not establish a direct link to the market move.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

  • No open questions have been logged yet.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The market’s Yes probability dropped 3.0 points, from 0.105 to 0.075, over the July 8, 2026 16:30 UTC to July 14, 2026 13:22 UTC window. A BBC report published July 15, 2026 said Russia attacked sites in Odesa and Sumy overnight, while Ukraine struck Russian vessels in the Black Sea. That news shows continued fighting around Sumy, but it does not confirm why the market moved or prove the drop was caused by this specific report. The safest read is that fresh combat headlines may have reinforced an already weaker Yes case, without establishing causation.

    What changed

    Yes odds fell 3.0 points, from 10.5% to 7.5%, across July 8, 2026 16:30 UTC to July 14, 2026 13:22 UTC.

    What to watch next

    Watch for verified battlefield reporting around Sumy, any territorial-control updates, and whether additional frontline or diplomatic news changes expectations again.

    Sources