activeGeopolitics-1% 24h

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

View on Polymarket

PolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.

Get alerts for Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

We email only when PolySays publishes a meaningful update, not every price move.

Current leader
No 75%
Leader 24h
-1%
24h volume
596K
Liquidity
82.6K

Top outcomes

2 outcomes

No

75%

-1% 24h

Yes

26%

+0% 24h

Odds chart

Probability over time

Story so far

Needs a refresh

Yes odds for the Gaza deadline market moved higher again on August 1, rising from 63.5% to 67.0% over the latest half-hour snapshot after the earlier July 31 headlines about Hamas and disarmament language. The move still appears tied to the same news cluster, but the underlying commitment remains unclear and may still be conditional rather than final.

No major update has changed the story in 28 days.

Latest update

No updates yet

The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • Multiple July 31 reports described Hamas as agreeing, or saying it would agree under conditions, to disarm within a Trump-backed Gaza framework.
  • The latest Yes move may reflect traders extending the reaction to those headlines and the possibility that the reported language supports the referenced outcome.
  • The reporting remains mixed, so some of the move may still be driven by uncertainty over whether the commitment is final or only conditional.

Unresolved questions

  • Whether Hamas has made a final disarmament commitment or only a conditional one.
  • Whether later reporting will confirm, qualify, or contradict the July 31 headlines.
  • Whether the Yes price move will hold or reverse as the news cycle develops.

People and institutions to watch

HamasTrumpGaza frameworkPolymarketYes outcome

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

No timeline entries match the current filters.

Keep exploring

Recent market explanations

Ethereum’s Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026 level drops: Yes odds 40% → 29.5%

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

October 31, 2026 in NATO x Russia military clash by market jumps: Yes odds 12.5% → 39.5%

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

Guardians extra-innings market surged after Cleveland finished Giants game 5-2

San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians

Bitcoin’s Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026 level slips: Yes odds 19.5% → 13.5%

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?