activeGeopoliticsDecember 31 +5% 24h

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

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Current leader
December 31 21%
Largest 24h move
December 31 +5%
24h volume
10.5K
Liquidity
47.1K

Top candidates

2 outcomes

December 31

21%

+5% 24h

June 30

0%

0% 24h

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.

Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify.

Read the complete resolution rules

Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

Living timeline · 17 significant updates

Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Odds chart showing latest December 31 probability of 25%.

Story so far

Needs a refresh

No event-level story summary has been written yet.

No major update has changed the story in 8 days.

Latest update

Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

Yes moved higher from 13.5% to 29.5% (+16.0 points) between 2026-07-05T19:52:01.877Z and 2026-07-06T19:52:01.877Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

  • No open questions have been logged yet.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The "Yes" outcome in "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?" made a sharp move from 13.5% to 29.5% between 2026-07-05T19:52:01.877Z and 2026-07-06T19:52:01.877Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.

    What changed

    The market repriced by +16.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.

    What to watch next

    Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.