Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.
- Current leader
- December 31, 2026 94%
- Largest 24h move
- July 19 -12%
- 24h volume
- 79.3K
- Liquidity
- 284K
Top candidates
6 outcomes
December 31, 2026
94%
-1% 24h
September 30
87%
-3% 24h
August 31
70%
-4% 24h
July 31
37%
-5% 24h
July 19
6%
-12% 24h
Show all outcomes
June 30
0%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.
Living timeline · 43 significant updates
Kostyantynivka July 19 capture odds plunge from 21% to 6% in 24 hours
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest December 31, 2026 probability of 94%.
Story so far
Up to dateKostyantynivka capture odds have been volatile. The latest move was a sharp Polymarket plunge in the July 19 Russia capture market: Yes fell from about 21% to 6% over roughly 24 hours on July 14-15, 2026. A Google News-linked item mentioned a possible resolution-map disagreement, but the driver is not confirmed.
This story reflects the latest meaningful update PolySays has published.
Latest update
Kostyantynivka July 19 capture odds plunge from 21% to 6% in 24 hours
Polymarket’s Yes price for Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19 fell from 21% to 6% between July 14 and July 15, 2026. A Google News item noted a resolution-map disagreement, but the driver of the move is not confirmed.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- Polymarket CLOB history shows Yes for Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19 fell from 21% to 6% between July 14 and July 15, 2026.
- The move was a 15-point decline over about 24 hours.
- A Google News-linked item mentioned a resolution-map disagreement, but causation is not confirmed.
- Earlier Kostyantynivka swings were observed, but their drivers were also unconfirmed.
Unresolved questions
- Whether the plunge was driven by battlefield news, trader positioning, or broader market flow remains unclear.
- Whether the resolution-map disagreement affected this market is uncertain.
- Whether earlier Kostyantynivka swings and the latest plunge share the same underlying driver is unknown.
People and institutions to watch
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
Polymarket CLOB history shows the Yes side on Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19 sliding sharply over roughly 24 hours, from 0.21 to 0.06. That is a 15-point drop, and the move finished by 2026-07-15T17:30:04.945Z after starting at 2026-07-14T17:00:18.000Z. A linked Google News item referenced a resolution-map disagreement with Polymarket, which may be relevant context, but it does not establish causation. Based on the supplied context, the safest read is that trader sentiment turned materially more bearish on a July 19 capture, while the underlying reason remains unconfirmed.
What changed
Yes odds for Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19 fell 15 points, from 21% to 6%, over about 24 hours.
What to watch next
Watch for fresh battlefield reporting, any further resolution-map clarification, and whether nearby-dated Kostyantynivka markets continue to move in the same direction.
Sources
- Will Russia Capture Kostyantynivka? Resolution Map Disagrees with Polymarket - Action Networksearchrelevance 75%· Google News RSS
Will Russia Capture Kostyantynivka? Resolution Map Disagrees with Polymarket Action Network