By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Current leader
13.5%
14%
4 outcomes
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?
Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeWell sourcedPolymarket’s June 30, 2027 Putin exit contract fell from 19.5% to 16.5% over the 24-hour window from July 14 to July 15, 2026, while related nearby-dated Putin-exit markets also sat lower.
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027: 20% → 17%
-3.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedPolymarket’s June 30, 2027 Putin exit contract fell from 19.5% to 16.5% over the 24-hour window from July 14 to July 15, 2026, while related nearby-dated Putin-exit markets also sat lower.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
Odds chart
Living timeline
The Yes side of the June 30, 2027 Putin-out market moved down 3.0 points, from 19.5% to 16.5%, between 2026-07-14T11:00:05.000Z and 2026-07-15T12:00:05.550Z. The provided source context does not confirm a single catalyst for the move. Related coverage during the same period described the broader Putin-exit complex as trading around 18% to 20% on substantial volume, but that is only contextual and does not prove a cause for this specific decline. The safest read is that the contract retraced after a prior uptick, with price action still clustered in the mid-to-high teens across adjacent expiries.
The measured move
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027: 19.5% → 16.5%
The June 30, 2027 Yes price fell 3.0 points, from 19.5% to 16.5%, over the stated 24-hour window.
Watch whether the June 30, 2027 contract reclaims the 18% area or stays below nearby Putin-exit expiries, and whether any new confirmed political or institutional developments change the broader curve.
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Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 3 significant updates
Putin-exit odds slip to 16.5% for June 30, 2027 market
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