activeGeopoliticsJune 30, 2027 -1% 24h

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method

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Current leader
June 30, 2027 14%
Largest 24h move
June 30, 2027 -1%
24h volume
205.9K
Liquidity
1.2M

Top candidates

4 outcomes

June 30, 2027

14%

-1% 24h

December 31, 2026

8%

0% 24h

September 30, 2026

2%

-0% 24h

August 31, 2026

0%

-0% 24h

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Story so far

Needs a refresh

The June 30, 2027 Putin-exit market moved lower over the latest 24-hour window, with the Yes price falling from 19.5% to 16.5%. Nearby-dated Putin-exit markets also appeared lower, suggesting softer near-term conviction, though the specific driver is not established from the provided inputs.

No major update has changed the story in 45 days.

Latest update

Putin-exit odds slip to 16.5% for June 30, 2027 market

Polymarket’s June 30, 2027 Putin exit contract fell from 19.5% to 16.5% over the 24-hour window from July 14 to July 15, 2026, while related nearby-dated Putin-exit markets also sat lower.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • Polymarket CLOB price history showed the Yes price for this contract moved down 3.0 points over 24 hours.

Unresolved questions

  • Whether the lower pricing reflects broader market sentiment or contract-specific flow.
  • Whether nearby-dated Putin-exit markets are falling for the same reason or for separate reasons.
  • Whether any concrete political or health developments exist behind the move, which are not provided here.

People and institutions to watch

PutinPolymarketJune 30, 2027 Putin exit marketnearby-dated Putin-exit markets

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The Yes side of the June 30, 2027 Putin-out market moved down 3.0 points, from 19.5% to 16.5%, between 2026-07-14T11:00:05.000Z and 2026-07-15T12:00:05.550Z. The provided source context does not confirm a single catalyst for the move. Related coverage during the same period described the broader Putin-exit complex as trading around 18% to 20% on substantial volume, but that is only contextual and does not prove a cause for this specific decline. The safest read is that the contract retraced after a prior uptick, with price action still clustered in the mid-to-high teens across adjacent expiries.

    What changed

    The June 30, 2027 Yes price fell 3.0 points, from 19.5% to 16.5%, over the stated 24-hour window.

    What to watch next

    Watch whether the June 30, 2027 contract reclaims the 18% area or stays below nearby Putin-exit expiries, and whether any new confirmed political or institutional developments change the broader curve.

    Sources

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