Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- before 2027 5%
- Largest 24h move
- by August 31 +0%
- 24h volume
- 417.1
- Liquidity
- 145.7K
Top candidates
3 outcomes
before 2027
5%
-0% 24h
by August 31
2%
+0% 24h
by June 30
0%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest before 2027 probability of 3%.
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Why this matters
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline