US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET.
- Current leader
- No 96%
- Leader 24h
- 0%
- 24h volume
- 2.3
- Liquidity
- 34.4K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
96%
0% 24h
Yes
4%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 96%.
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Source trail
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Living timeline