activeGeopoliticsend of 2026 +1% 24h

Netanyahu out by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

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Current leader
end of 2026 37%
Largest 24h move
end of 2026 +1%
24h volume
46.3K
Liquidity
254.8K

Top candidates

3 outcomes

end of 2026

37%

+1% 24h

July 31

2%

-0% 24h

June 30

0%

0% 24h

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Living timeline · 4 significant updates

Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Odds chart showing latest end of 2026 probability of 37%.

Story so far

Needs a refresh

The June 30 "Netanyahu out" market stayed pinned near zero as it neared close, with odds unchanged at 0.15%. The current source set does not show a direct event that moved this contract; nearby Israeli security and government-plan headlines may provide context, but they do not clearly explain the child market's price.

No major update has changed the story in 16 days.

Latest update

Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

Netanyahu out by end of 2026 moved lower from 45.5% to 36.5% (-9.0 points) between 2026-07-05T00:00:07.000Z and 2026-07-06T10:35:05.351Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • No direct market-moving event is confirmed in the provided source set.
  • Recent Israeli security operations and Netanyahu government-plan headlines may be adjacent context, but the link to this market remains unconfirmed.

Unresolved questions

  • Whether any late political development before June 30 could still affect the contract.
  • Whether the referenced security and government headlines have any causal connection to the child market, which is not established here.
  • Whether the market's near-zero price mainly reflects time decay and low conviction rather than a fresh event.

People and institutions to watch

Benjamin NetanyahuIsraeli governmentIsraeli security operationsJune 30 Netanyahu-out market

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The "Netanyahu out by end of 2026" outcome in "Netanyahu out by...?" made a sharp move from 45.5% to 36.5% between 2026-07-05T00:00:07.000Z and 2026-07-06T10:35:05.351Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.

    What changed

    The market repriced by -9.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.

    What to watch next

    Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.