Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
- Current leader
- Amal Movement 3%
- Largest 24h move
- Amal Movement +0%
- 24h volume
- 4.9K
- Liquidity
- 356.4K
Top candidates
23 outcomes
Amal Movement
3%
+0% 24h
Lebanese Forces
3%
0% 24h
Lana – Social Democratic Party
1%
0% 24h
Hezbollah
1%
0% 24h
Free Patriotic Movement
0%
0% 24h
Show all outcomes
Union Party
0%
0%
National Dialogue Party
0%
0%
Mada Party
0%
0%
Taqaddom Party
0%
0%
Watani Alliance
0%
0%
Kataeb Party
0%
0%
Marada Movement
0%
0%
Islamic Group
0%
0%
Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party in Lebanon
0%
0%
Islamic Charitable Projects Association
0%
0%
National Liberal Party
0%
0%
ReLebanon
0%
0%
Popular Nasserist Organization
0%
0%
Khatt Ahmar
0%
0%
Progressive Socialist Party
0%
0%
Independence Movement
0%
0%
Dignity Movement
0%
0%
Armenian Revolutionary Federation
0%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament..
Read the complete resolution rules
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively.
If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively.
If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest Amal Movement probability of 2%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline