Israeli parliament dissolved by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 3 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- July 17 88%
- Largest 24h move
- July 16 +26%
- 24h volume
- 97.7K
- Liquidity
- 73.6K
Top candidates
5 outcomes
July 17
88%
+12% 24h
July 31
82%
+1% 24h
July 16
72%
+26% 24h
July 15
16%
-1% 24h
June 30
8%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 3 and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest July 17 probability of 93%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15 moved higher from 38.0% to 51.5% (+13.5 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:10.078Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:10.078Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15" outcome in "Israeli parliament dissolved by...?" made a sharp move from 38.0% to 51.5% between 2026-06-23T19:22:10.078Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:10.078Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by +13.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.