Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- No 88%
- Leader 24h
- -4%
- 24h volume
- 85.6
- Liquidity
- 21.5K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
88%
-4% 24h
Yes
12%
+4% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 83%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
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Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline