Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- December 31 36%
- Largest 24h move
- December 31 +5%
- 24h volume
- 44.1K
- Liquidity
- 27.1K
Top candidates
2 outcomes
December 31
36%
+5% 24h
June 30
3%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest December 31 probability of 25%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline