Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- December 31, 2026 12%
- Largest 24h move
- December 31, 2026 0%
- 24h volume
- 162.3K
- Liquidity
- 188.4K
Top candidates
2 outcomes
December 31, 2026
12%
0% 24h
June 30, 2026
0%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map ( by the resolution date. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map.
Read the complete resolution rules
If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap ( may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest December 31, 2026 probability of 11%.
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Why this matters
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline