NATO dissolves before 2027?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- No 96%
- Leader 24h
- -0%
- 24h volume
- 247.7
- Liquidity
- 32.7K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
96%
-0% 24h
Yes
4%
+0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty. 3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Read the complete resolution rules
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 99%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline