Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- December 31, 2026 12%
- Largest 24h move
- December 31, 2026 +2%
- 24h volume
- 2.6K
- Liquidity
- 60.8K
Top candidates
2 outcomes
December 31, 2026
12%
+2% 24h
June 30, 2026
2%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest December 31, 2026 probability of 10%.
Story so far
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Latest update
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Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline