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Latest movement explanations
Showing 48 of 48 matched markets.
World Cup Winner
Latest: Argentina’s title probability moved from 19.75% to 41.65%, a +21.9 point change, over the July 15-16 UTC window.
Spain
58%
Argentina
42%
Norway
6%
Largest 24h move
France -39%
Volume
103.6M
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
Latest: The Yes price for Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31 fell 9.5 points, from 36.5% to 27.0%, over the reported 24-hour window.
December 31, 2026
93%
September 30
85%
August 31
70%
Largest 24h move
July 31 -8%
Volume
66.3K
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
Latest: Yes odds fell 3.0 points, from 10.5% to 7.5%, across July 8, 2026 16:30 UTC to July 14, 2026 13:22 UTC.
No
92%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
345K
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
Latest: The June 30, 2027 Yes price fell 3.0 points, from 19.5% to 16.5%, over the stated 24-hour window.
June 30, 2027
19%
December 31, 2026
10%
September 30, 2026
4%
Largest 24h move
June 30, 2027 +2%
Volume
134.3K
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Latest: The market repriced by +6.4 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
No
80%
Yes
20%
Leader 24h
+2%
Volume
59.8K
What will happen before GTA VI?
Latest: Yes odds for "New Rihanna Album before GTA VI" moved from 51.0% to 54.5%, a +3.5 point change over the 24 hours from 2026-07-07T00:30:04.991Z to 2026-07-08T00:30:04.991Z.
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI
52%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI
52%
Another pandemic before GTA VI
51%
Largest 24h move
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI -3%
Volume
51.4K
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Latest: The market price for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s 2028 Democratic nomination yes share rose from 13.65% to 16.75%, a +3.1 point move over the stated 24-hour window.
Gavin Newsom
20%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
14%
Jon Ossoff
12%
Largest 24h move
Kamala Harris +1%
Volume
2.7M
Netanyahu out by...?
Latest: The market repriced by -9.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
end of 2026
37%
July 31
2%
Largest 24h move
end of 2026 -10%
Volume
32.4K
Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?
Latest: The market repriced by -5.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
No
81%
Yes
19%
Leader 24h
+2%
Volume
101.6K
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
Latest: Yes odds for the December 31, 2026 market increased by 3.0 points, from 6.5% to 9.5%, over roughly two days.
No
95%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
16.5K
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?
Latest: The market repriced by -7.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
Yes
55%
No
45%
Leader 24h
-0%
Volume
149.5K
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
Latest: Yes odds for Ukraine election by December 31, 2026 moved down 4.0 points, from 0.115 to 0.075, over the July 4 to July 5 UTC window.
No
92%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
220.8K
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Latest: Democratic Senate-control odds increased from 0.415 to 0.445, a +0.030 move, during the period from 2026-07-02T00:00:11.000Z to 2026-07-03T08:35:05.339Z.
the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections
57%
the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections
45%
Largest 24h move
the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections 0%
Volume
223.5K
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Latest: J.D. Vance’s implied odds fell from 41.55% to 38.0%, a 3.55-point drop, over the stated 24-hour window.
J.D. Vance
42%
Marco Rubio
27%
Tucker Carlson
3%
Largest 24h move
Tucker Carlson +0%
Volume
1.4M
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Latest: Ossoff’s 2028 presidential Yes price climbed 3.25 points, from 5.6% to 8.85%, in the reported 24-hour period.
JD Vance
20%
Marco Rubio
14%
Gavin Newsom
12%
Largest 24h move
Marco Rubio +0%
Volume
2.1M
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?
Latest: The market repriced by -7.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
No
76%
Yes
24%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
545K
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Latest: The market repriced by +18.2 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026
86%
Mohammed bin Salman in 2026
72%
Vladimir Putin in 2026
44%
Largest 24h move
iShowSpeed in 2026 +18%
Volume
26.4K
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
2.8M
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
No
95%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
646.5K
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
No
95%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
533K
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
No
95%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
498.4K
Brazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
57%
Fernando Haddad
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Largest 24h move
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva +4%
Volume
395.8K
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
320.1K
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
No
78%
Yes
22%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
133.9K
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
No
99%
Yes
1%
Leader 24h
-0%
Volume
127.6K
NATO article 5 before 2027?
No
93%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
92.5K
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
No
88%
Yes
12%
Leader 24h
-4%
Volume
86.6K
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
No
89%
Yes
12%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
80.3K
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
74.8K
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
-0%
Volume
70K
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?
No
95%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
60.6K
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
D Senate, D House
43%
R Senate, D House
40%
R Senate, R House
13%
Largest 24h move
R Senate, R House -3%
Volume
55.1K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No
87%
Yes
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
35.6K
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
-0%
Volume
32.7K
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
31.1K
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
28.3K
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
No
95%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
26.8K
Which party will win the House in 2026?
the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections
84%
the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections
16%
Largest 24h move
the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections -1%
Volume
26.4K
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
+2%
Volume
26.3K
Will Trump resign before 2027?
No
98%
Yes
2%
Leader 24h
+2%
Volume
20.9K
Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?
No
90%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
18.6K
US congress stock trading ban before 2027?
No
89%
Yes
12%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
18.3K
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
No
91%
Yes
10%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
17.6K
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
No
93%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
15.9K
Trump out as President before 2027?
No
91%
Yes
10%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
15.6K
US defaults on debt by 2027?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
15.5K
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
No
85%
Yes
16%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
15.2K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
No
91%
Yes
10%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
14.3K