By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president.
Current leader
43.8%
44%
12 outcomes
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
0.0 pp
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2%
0.0 pp
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%
0.0 pp
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%
0.0 pp
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%
0.0 pp
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%
0.0 pp
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
0%
0.0 pp
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
VolumeMonitoring onlyProbability moved from 14.7% to 14.75%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $28,725.9555 to $93,983.5655. The cause is not established.
Yes: 15% → 15%
+0.1 ppStory so far
Recently updatedProbability moved from 14.7% to 14.75%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $28,725.9555 to $93,983.5655. The cause is not established.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 14.7% to 14.75% (+0.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T19:30:41.686Z to 2026-10-19T19:47:37.074Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 14.7% → 14.75%
Probability moved from 14.7% to 14.75% (+0.05 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 55 seconds apart: 2026-10-19 19:30:41 UTC to 2026-10-19 19:47:37 UTC. The move also met PolySays' high-volume-shock threshold. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $28,725.9555 to $93,983.5655.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 44.85% to 43.95% (-0.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T08:32:19.962Z to 2026-10-19T08:47:20.274Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 13.65% to 13.75% (+0.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T01:01:36.587Z to 2026-10-19T01:17:54.457Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability remained at 13.15% (0 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T23:01:39.038Z to 2026-10-18T23:17:19.620Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 2.45% to 3.4% (+0.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T21:45:55.501Z to 2026-10-18T22:01:04.360Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability remained at 3.1% (0 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T20:45:05.129Z to 2026-10-18T21:02:11.064Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability remained at 48.35% (0 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T00:30:29.870Z to 2026-10-16T00:45:28.055Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — probability rises to 14.75%
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