By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
Current leader
20.1%
20%
12 outcomes
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
-0.1 pp
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
0.0 pp
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3%
0.0 pp
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
2%
+0.5 pp
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
-0.2 pp
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
+0.1 pp
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
0.0 pp
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
VolumeMonitoring onlyProbability moved from 1.45% to 2.1%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $178.3945 to $20,630.2177. The cause is not established.
Yes: 1% → 2%
+0.7 ppStory so far
Recently updatedProbability moved from 1.45% to 2.1%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $178.3945 to $20,630.2177. The cause is not established.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 1.45% to 2.1% (+0.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T21:47:40.010Z to 2026-10-20T22:02:18.709Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 1.45% → 2.1%
Probability moved from 1.45% to 2.1% (+0.65 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 39 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 21:47:40 UTC to 2026-10-20 22:02:18 UTC. The move also met PolySays' high-volume-shock threshold. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $178.3945 to $20,630.2177.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability remained at 20.05% (0 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T09:46:40.568Z to 2026-10-19T10:01:34.905Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability remained at 7.85% (0 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T19:32:27.756Z to 2026-10-17T20:00:09.081Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — probability rises to 2.1%
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