Economy & Rates

there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting

68%

the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting

31%

the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting

1%

Yes

56%

No

44%

no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026

88%

1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026

10%

2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026

3%

make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting

57%

decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting

37%

decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting

5%

0.2% in August

37%

0.3% in August

37%

0.1% in August

13%

upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027

13%

lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027

11%

upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027

4%

4.5% in 2026

13%

5% in 2026

7%

6% in 2026

6%

No

97%

Yes

3%

No

92%

Yes

8%

between 1.5% and 2.0%

36%

between 2.0% and 2.5%

34%

greater than 2.5%

18%

3.9% before 2027

10%

3.6% before 2027

5%

2.0% before 2027

3%

4.8% before 2027

65%

5.0% before 2027

17%

5.2% before 2027

9%

NVIDIA

76%

Apple

15%

Alphabet

10%

between 0% and 1.0%

76%

between 1.0% and 2.0%

20%

less than 0%

3%

No

98%

Yes

2%

in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%

53%

in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%

42%

be less than 20%

2%

No

64%

Yes

36%

at least 3.1%

66%

between 2.8% and 3.0%

21%

between 2.5% and 2.7%

6%

between 2.5% and 2.9%

24%

between 3.5% and 3.9%

23%

between 4.0% and 4.4%

11%

No

83%

Yes

18%

5.0% in 2026

12%

6.0% in 2026

7%

5.5% in 2026

6%

between 2.5% and 2.9%

33%

between 3.0% and 3.4%

18%

between 3.5% and 3.9%

13%

December 2026 meeting

12%

October 2026 meeting

5%

September 2026 meeting

1%

between 4.7% and 5.0% in 2026

27%

between 4.4% and 4.7% in 2026

22%

greater than 5.0% in 2026

19%

3.1% in 2026

29%

3.0% in 2026

28%

≤2.9% in 2026

20%

between 5.00% and 5.49%

48%

between 4.50% and 4.99%

26%

between 5.50% and 5.99%

24%

1600.00 or higher at the end of December 2026

66%

between 1500.00 and 1549.99 at the end of December 2026

12%

between 1400.00 and 1449.99 at the end of December 2026

12%

between 1% and 2%

74%

below 0%

11%

between 0% and 1%

9%

between 800B and 900B

43%

between 700B and 800B

27%

between 900B and 1T

15%

No

74%

Yes

26%

between 3.50% and 3.99%

34%

between 4.00% and 4.49%

24%

between 3.00% and 3.49%

21%

at least 4.50%

90%

between 3.75% and 4.49%

7%

less than 0.75%

2%

between 2.7% and 2.9%

33%

at least 3.0%

28%

between 2.4% and 2.6%

25%

No

92%

Yes

8%

be in a soft landing at the end of 2026

62%

be overheating at the end of 2026

32%

be in stagflation at the end of 2026

4%

No

79%

Yes

21%

$7 per pound in 2026

52%

$8 per pound in 2026

45%

$9 per pound in 2026

32%

October 2026 Meeting

45%

September 2026 Meeting

34%

No

69%

Yes

32%

No

80%

Yes

21%

Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)

68%

decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)

32%

Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)

1%

between 0.3% and 0.5%

64%

between 0.0% and 0.2%

21%

between 0.6% and 0.8%

8%

hold at the August 2026 meeting

79%

cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting

21%

cut by 50 bps or more at the August 2026 meeting

0%

between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30

37%

between $340,000 and $345,000 on September 30

32%

at least $345,000 on September 30

15%

between $512,000 and $518,000 on September 30

33%

between $518,000 and $524,000 on September 30

32%

less than $512,000 on September 30

16%

less than $1,176,000 on September 30

89%

between $1,198,000 and $1,220,000 on September 30

7%

between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30

4%

less than $446,000 on September 30

89%

between $446,000 and $454,000 on September 30

4%

between $454,000 and $462,000 on September 30

3%

at least $689,000 on September 30

57%

between $663,000 and $689,000 on September 30

22%

between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30

6%

less than $419,000 on September 30

57%

between $419,000 and $426,000 on September 30

29%

between $426,000 and $433,000 on September 30

13%

less than $1,137,000 on September 30

49%

between $1,137,000 and $1,153,000 on September 30

39%

between $1,153,000 and $1,169,000 on September 30

4%

between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30

47%

between $1,053,000 and $1,089,000 on September 30

24%

between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30

10%

make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting

81%

increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting

7%

increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the September meeting

6%

No change in Bank of Mexico's interest rates after September 2026 meeting

94%

Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting

6%

Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting

1%

No change in Bank of England's interest rates after September 2026 meeting

92%

Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting

9%

Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting

1%

no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026

44%

1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026

39%

2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026

16%

between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026

77%

less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026

20%

between 3.0 and 3.4% in 2026

1%

less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026

49%

between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026

49%

between 3.0 and 3.4% in 2026

5%

Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)

50%

decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)

44%

Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)

2%

there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting

72%

the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting

24%

the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting

4%

decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting

94%

make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting

5%

decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting

0%

a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting

98%

no change at the September 2026 meeting

2%

a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting

0%

December 31

55%

October 31

27%

August 31

7%

make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement

88%

increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement

8%

decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement

4%

Hike

51%

Cut

50%

between 3.0% and 3.4%

34%

between 2.5% and 2.9%

31%

between 3.5% and 3.9%

14%

increase the repo rate after the September meeting

56%

make no change to the repo rate after the September meeting

40%

decrease the repo rate after the September meeting

30%

no change at the October 2026 meeting

89%

a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting

10%

a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting

0%

June 30, 2027

11%

December 31, 2026

5%

there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting

61%

the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting

22%

the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting

14%

two people dissent the December Fed decision

24%

three people dissent the December Fed decision

23%

four or more people dissent the December Fed decision

22%

there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting

60%

the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting

32%

the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting

8%

No change in Bank of England's interest rates after November 2026 meeting

77%

Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting

14%

Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting

1%

greater than 3.0%

32%

between 2.0% and 2.5%

25%

between 2.5% and 3.0%

24%

three people dissent the January Fed decision

25%

two people dissent the January Fed decision

20%

one person dissent the January Fed decision

20%

between 2.0% and 2.5%

30%

between 1.5% and 2.0%

22%

between 2.5% and 3.0%

13%

between 0.8% and 1.1%

48%

between 0.4% and 0.7%

17%

between 0.0% and 0.3%

9%

between 1.0% and 1.2%

37%

between 0.7% and 0.9%

34%

between 0.4% and 0.6%

25%

between 7.3M and 7.4M in July

20%

below 7.1M in July

19%

between 7.4M and 7.5M in July

16%

between 55.0 and 55.9 in August

26%

between 54.0 and 54.9 in August

21%

between 53.0 and 53.9 in August

14%

between 49.0 and 51.9 in August

64%

below 49.0 in August

15%

between 52.0 and 54.9 in August

12%

between 0.2% and 0.3%

54%

between 0.0% and 0.1%

22%

between 0.4% and 0.5%

17%

No change in Bank of Mexico's interest rates after November 2026 meeting

86%

Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting

10%

Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting

3%

between 53.0 and 53.9 in August

31%

between 55.0 and 55.9 in August

29%

between 54.0 and 54.9 in August

24%

No

72%

Yes

28%

add between 50k and 100k jobs in August

25%

add between 100k and 150k jobs in August

14%

lose between 0 and 50k jobs in August

12%

4.2%

36%

4.1%

35%

4.3%

16%

December 31

7%

November 30

7%

October 31

2%

between 0.5% and 0.6% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026

38%

between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026

32%

at least 0.9% over the 12 month period ending in August 2026

19%

between $2.20–$2.30 in August

26%

between $2.30–$2.40 in August

24%

between $2.10–$2.20 in August

19%

2.4% in August

40%

2.3% in August

34%

2.5% in August

21%

0.2% in August

43%

0.3% in August

26%

0.1% in August

20%

3.4% in August

42%

3.3% in August

29%

3.5% in August

17%

increase by 0.4% in August

43%

increase by 0.3% in August

27%

increase by 0.5% or more in August

23%

5.1% or more in August

57%

5.0% in August

17%

4.9% in August

14%

between 0.2% and 0.3%

30%

between 0.4% and 0.5%

26%

negative

18%

between 1.8% and 2.0%

51%

between 1.5% and 1.7%

36%

between 2.1% and 2.3%

4%

between -2.4% and -1.6%

21%

between -0.8% and 0.0%

18%

between 3.2% and 4.0%

14%

Warsh say "Productivity" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28

80%

Warsh say "Challenge" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28

67%

Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28

63%

No

93%

Yes

7%

No

82%

Yes

19%