Economy and rates hub
Economy & Rates
Current economy and rates movers, recent explanations, and context for inflation, Fed decisions, jobs data, growth, and policy calendars.
← Trending marketsPolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Last 24 hours
Biggest recent shifts
Economy
Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?
78.5%
79%
Largest mover: an outcome
Economy
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?
78.5%
79%
62% → 79% in 24h
Economy
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
68.5%
69%
Largest mover: an outcome
Economy
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
30.4%
30%
41% → 30% in 24h
Context
Why these markets move
Economy and rates markets usually cluster around scheduled releases: CPI, jobs, GDP, FOMC decisions, speeches, and revisions. Durable context starts with the calendar, then checks whether market moves match official data.
Signals to watch
- CPI, jobs, GDP, and revision calendars
- FOMC statements and speeches
- Treasury, dollar, and risk-asset confirmation signals
What changed recently
Recent reporting
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate anno… — probability falls to 68.5%
The tracked probability fell to 68.5%, down 3.1 percentage points from 71.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability falls to 53.5%
The tracked probability fell to 53.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 57% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability rises to 57%
The tracked probability rose to 57%, up 11.0 percentage points from 46% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability falls to 43.5%
The tracked probability fell to 43.5%, down 4.0 percentage points from 47.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability falls to 48%
The tracked probability fell to 48%, down 3.5 percentage points from 51.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability rises to 51.5%
The tracked probability rose to 51.5%, up 9.0 percentage points from 42.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Newly eligible
New economy & rates markets
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?
68.5% 68.5% · Data ready
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
68.5% 68.5% · Data ready
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
30.4% 30.4% · Data ready
Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026
67.3% 67.3% · Data ready
Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?
28.4% 28.4% · Data ready
Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?
67.3% 67.3% · Data ready
Economy
Markets worth watching
Showing 10 of 10 matched markets.
The filter applies to this curated selection.
Search all coverage →Economy
Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?
79%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$894.2
Latest: Probability moved from 71% to 79% (+8 percentage points). Observations were 3 hours 19 minutes 59 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 17:31:56 UTC to 2026-10-20 20:51:55 UTC.
Economy
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?
Yes
79%
No
22%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$894.2
Economy
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?
69%
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
30%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$40.9K
Latest: Probability moved from 71.65% to 68.5% (-3.15 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Economy
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
Yes
30%
No
70%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$23.4K
Economy
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?
Yes
69%
No
32%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$17.4K
Economy
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October?
54%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$271.1
Latest: Probability moved from 57% to 53.5% (-3.5 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Economy
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October?
Yes
54%
No
47%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$271.1
Economy
Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026
Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?
67%
Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?
28%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$1.8K
Latest: Probability moved from 70.05% to 66.5% (-3.55 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 2 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 17:17:53 UTC to 2026-10-20 17:31:56 UTC.
Economy
Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?
Yes
28%
No
72%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$466.2
Economy
Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?
Yes
67%
No
33%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.3K