Economy and rates hub
Economy & Rates
Current economy and rates movers, recent explanations, and context for inflation, Fed decisions, jobs data, growth, and policy calendars.
Moving now
Biggest recent shifts
Why these markets move
Economy and rates markets usually cluster around scheduled releases: CPI, jobs, GDP, FOMC decisions, speeches, and revisions. Durable context starts with the calendar, then checks whether market moves match official data.
Signals to watch
- CPI, jobs, GDP, and revision calendars
- FOMC statements and speeches
- Treasury, dollar, and risk-asset confirmation signals
What changed recently
Recent market explanations
South Africa 2.6%-2.9% inflation range drops 11.1 points over 24 hours
The 2026 South Africa inflation range market for 2.6%-2.9% fell from 39.35% to 28.25% between June 23 and June 24. No confirmed driver is established from the supplied context.
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5% moved lower from 55.0% to 47.0% (-8.0 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:48.933Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0% moved higher from 21.0% to 30.0% (+9.0 points) between 2026-06-23T18:45:48.932Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:48.932Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 6.0% and 7.0% moved lower from 29.2% to 1.8% (-27.4 points) between 2026-06-23T18:45:50.191Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:50.191Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 3.0% and 4.0% moved lower from 10.9% to 1.9% (-9.0 points) between 2026-06-23T00:00:04.000Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:50.191Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1% moved lower from 48.5% to 38.0% (-10.5 points) between 2026-06-23T18:45:50.195Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:50.195Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Economy
Latest news for active markets
Showing 28 of 28 matched markets.
South Africa Annual Inflation 2026
Latest: The 2.6%-2.9% Yes probability fell from 0.3935 to 0.2825, a -0.111 move, during the supplied 24-hour window.
between 3.8% and 4.1% in 2026
37%
between 2.9% and 3.2% in 2026
37%
between 4.1% and 4.4% in 2026
37%
Largest 24h move
between 3.2% and 3.5% in 2026 -19%
Volume
9.6
China Annual Inflation 2026
Latest: The market repriced by -8.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
between 1.1% and 1.5%
47%
between 0.6% and 1.0%
30%
less than -1.0%
6%
Largest 24h move
between 0.6% and 1.0% +9%
Volume
17
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
Latest: The market repriced by -27.4 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
between 0% and 1.0%
39%
between 1.0% and 2.0%
32%
less than 0%
13%
Largest 24h move
between 6.0% and 7.0% -27%
Volume
39.9
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
Latest: The market repriced by -10.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
below 0%
46%
between 1% and 2%
41%
between 2% and 3%
41%
Largest 24h move
between 0% and 1% -11%
Volume
0
Canada Annual Inflation 2026
Latest: The market repriced by +10.7 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
between 3.5% and 3.9%
44%
between 3.0% and 3.4%
42%
between 1.5% and 1.9%
42%
Largest 24h move
between 3.0% and 3.4% +11%
Volume
0
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Latest: Yes odds moved from 5.25% to 9.15%, up 3.9 percentage points, during the supplied June 24 snapshot window.
upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027
32%
lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027
20%
upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027
9%
Largest 24h move
upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027 -4%
Volume
2.7K
Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026
Latest: The market repriced by +5.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
between 2.8% and 3.0%
42%
at least 3.1%
40%
less than 1.0%
36%
Largest 24h move
between 1.6% and 1.8% -36%
Volume
47
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Latest: The Yes price for the 4.0% end-2026 Fed-rate outcome rose from 0.2175 to 0.252, a 0.0345 move, over the supplied 24-hour period.
3.75% at the end of 2026
28%
4.0% at the end of 2026
25%
4.25% at the end of 2026
21%
Largest 24h move
4.0% at the end of 2026 +3%
Volume
2K
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Latest: The market repriced by -5.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
3.9% before 2027
31%
3.8% before 2027
26%
3.7% before 2027
24%
Largest 24h move
3.8% before 2027 -5%
Volume
434.2
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
82%
1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026
14%
2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
3%
Largest 24h move
no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 +1%
Volume
899.3K
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes
56%
No
45%
Leader 24h
-4%
Volume
114.3K
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
No
99%
Yes
2%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
42.3K
ECB rate cut in 2026?
No
88%
Yes
13%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
28.4K
Fed rate cut by...?
December 2026 meeting
19%
October 2026 meeting
11%
September 2026 meeting
6%
Largest 24h move
December 2026 meeting +2%
Volume
17.9K
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?
No
94%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
+2%
Volume
9.7K
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
No
98%
Yes
2%
Leader 24h
-0%
Volume
4.1K
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?
No
91%
Yes
10%
Leader 24h
+3%
Volume
3.7K
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30?
No
99%
Yes
1%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
3.4K
How high will inflation get in 2026?
4.5% in 2026
20%
5% in 2026
13%
6% in 2026
6%
Largest 24h move
5% in 2026 -1%
Volume
3.3K
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
5.0% in 2026
11%
5.5% in 2026
7%
6.0% in 2026
7%
Largest 24h move
6.0% in 2026 -3%
Volume
2.4K
Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
between 5.00% and 5.49%
37%
between 4.50% and 4.99%
30%
between 5.50% and 5.99%
16%
Largest 24h move
between 4.50% and 4.99% +21%
Volume
1.4K
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.8% before 2027
30%
5.0% before 2027
14%
5.2% before 2027
6%
Largest 24h move
5.5% before 2027 -1%
Volume
170.4
GDP growth in 2026
greater than 2.5%
52%
between 1.5% and 2.0%
13%
less than 0.5%
12%
Largest 24h move
between 2.0% and 2.5% -4%
Volume
153.4
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
No
62%
Yes
39%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
31.9
U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
between 4.0% and 4.4%
42%
at least 4.5%
31%
between 2.5% and 2.9%
14%
Largest 24h move
between 2.5% and 2.9% -15%
Volume
30.3
Argentina Annual Inflation 2026
in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%
28%
in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%
27%
be less than 20%
10%
Largest 24h move
in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9% -1%
Volume
7.2
2026 World GDP Growth
3.1% in 2026
31%
≤2.9% in 2026
17%
3.0% in 2026
9%
Largest 24h move
3.0% in 2026 -21%
Volume
5
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
No
88%
Yes
12%
Leader 24h
-1%
Volume
1.1