Living market coverage

Prediction-market movement explanations

The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.

  1. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

    Ethereum’s Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026 level drops: Yes odds 40% → 29.5%

    Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026 moved lower from 40.0% to 29.5% (-10.5 points) between 2026-08-19T21:03:08.708Z and 2026-08-20T21:03:08.708Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  2. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

    Ethereum’s Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026 level slips: Yes odds 28.1% → 18.1%

    Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026 moved lower from 28.1% to 18.1% (-10.0 points) between 2026-08-19T19:18:05.817Z and 2026-08-20T19:18:05.817Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  3. Unexplained MoveNATO x Russia military clash by...?

    October 31, 2026 in NATO x Russia military clash by market jumps: Yes odds 12.5% → 39.5%

    October 31, 2026 moved higher from 12.5% to 39.5% (+27.0 points) between 2026-08-19T20:03:05.713Z and 2026-08-20T20:03:05.713Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  4. Unexplained MoveNATO x Russia military clash by...?

    August 31, 2026 in NATO x Russia military clash by market jumps: Yes odds 2.6% → 36.5%

    August 31, 2026 moved higher from 2.6% to 36.5% (+33.9 points) between 2026-08-19T20:03:05.713Z and 2026-08-20T20:03:05.713Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  5. Unexplained MoveNATO x Russia military clash by...?

    December 31, 2026 in NATO x Russia military clash by market jumps: Yes odds 23% → 47%

    December 31, 2026 moved higher from 23.0% to 47.0% (+24.0 points) between 2026-08-19T20:03:05.713Z and 2026-08-20T20:03:05.713Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  6. Odds SurgeSan Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians

    Guardians extra-innings market surged after Cleveland finished Giants game 5-2

    The Cleveland Guardians’ extra-innings market jumped from 0 to 0.9995 between August 14, 2026 and August 20, 2026 after Cleveland’s 5-2 win over San Francisco was reported. The move likely coincided with the game’s final result, which removed extra-innings uncertainty.

  7. Odds PlungeSan Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians

    Giants' 1-0 win over Guardians coincided with extra-innings Yes odds plunging

    After San Francisco's 1-0 win over Cleveland, the extra-innings Yes market for Giants-Guardians dropped from 15.5% to 0.5% over the next 24 hours. The move appears to have coincided with the completed low-scoring result, not a separate confirmed catalyst.

  8. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

    Bitcoin’s Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026 level slips: Yes odds 19.5% → 13.5%

    Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026 moved lower from 19.5% to 13.5% (-6.0 points) between 2026-08-19T19:03:05.429Z and 2026-08-20T19:03:05.429Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  9. Odds PlungeWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

    Polymarket odds for a $40K Bitcoin dip fall 7 points in 24 hours

    Polymarket’s Yes odds for Bitcoin dipping to $40,000 by December 31, 2026 dropped from 15.5% to 8.5% over the 24 hours ending August 20, 2026 19:03 UTC. The move appears to have coincided with broader bullish Bitcoin chatter, but the exact driver is unconfirmed.

  10. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

    Ethereum’s Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026 level drifts higher: Yes odds 52% → 60.5%

    Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026 moved higher from 52.0% to 60.5% (+8.5 points) between 2026-08-20T06:03:05.406Z and 2026-08-20T18:33:05.556Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  11. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

    Ethereum’s Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026 level jumps: Yes odds 36% → 60.5%

    Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026 moved higher from 36.0% to 60.5% (+24.5 points) between 2026-08-19T18:33:05.556Z and 2026-08-20T18:33:05.556Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  12. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

    Ethereum’s Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026 level drops: Yes odds 56.5% → 29.5%

    Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026 moved lower from 56.5% to 29.5% (-27.0 points) between 2026-08-19T18:48:05.426Z and 2026-08-20T18:48:05.426Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  13. Odds PlungeWhat price will Ethereum hit in August?

    Polymarket’s Ethereum $2,000 dip market plunged as ETH strength held above $2,000

    Polymarket’s Yes odds for Ethereum dipping to $2,000 in August fell from 32.0% to 9.5% over the last 24 hours. The move may have coincided with Ethereum trading above $2,000, but the catalyst is not confirmed.

  14. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

    Ethereum’s Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026 level jumps: Yes odds 22.5% → 41.5%

    Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026 moved higher from 22.5% to 41.5% (+19.0 points) between 2026-08-19T17:48:05.432Z and 2026-08-20T17:48:05.432Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  15. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

    Ethereum’s Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026 level jumps: Yes odds 36% → 57.5%

    Ethereum reach $2,750 by December 31, 2026 moved higher from 36.0% to 57.5% (+21.5 points) between 2026-08-19T17:48:05.432Z and 2026-08-20T17:48:05.432Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  16. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

    Ethereum’s Ethereum reach $2,500 by December 31, 2026 level jumps: Yes odds 55% → 83%

    Ethereum reach $2,500 by December 31, 2026 moved higher from 55.0% to 83.0% (+28.0 points) between 2026-08-19T17:48:05.432Z and 2026-08-20T17:48:05.432Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  17. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

    Ethereum’s Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026 level drops: Yes odds 55% → 31%

    Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026 moved lower from 55.0% to 31.0% (-24.0 points) between 2026-08-19T18:03:05.501Z and 2026-08-20T18:03:05.501Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  18. Odds SurgeWhat price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

    Ethereum $3,500 odds jump 11 points as ETH rallies on short-squeeze talk

    Polymarket odds for Ethereum reaching $3,500 by December 31, 2026 rose from 10.5% to 21.5% over 24 hours ending August 20, 2026, while TradingNEWS reported ETH-USD up 18.6% amid a short squeeze. The move appears to have coincided with the price surge, not been proven by it.

  19. Sustained DriftWhat price will Ethereum hit in August?

    Ethereum $2,700 August Yes odds drift higher as ETH strength continues

    Polymarket’s August $2,700 Ethereum market rose from 7.35% to 19.25% between 2026-08-20 05:18 UTC and 17:03 UTC. The move appears consistent with broader ETH strength, though the exact catalyst is unconfirmed.

  20. Sustained DriftWhat price will Ethereum hit in August?

    Ethereum $2,600 August Yes odds drift up from 12.45% to 28.7%

    Polymarket’s August market for Ethereum reaching $2,600 rose from 12.45% to 28.7% between 2026-08-20 05:33 UTC and 17:03 UTC. The move coincided with broader ETH strength, but the exact catalyst is not confirmed.

  21. Sustained DriftWhat price will Ethereum hit in August?

    Ethereum $2,500 August Yes odds nearly doubled during a broad ETH rally

    Polymarket’s August $2,500 Yes market for Ethereum climbed from 24.2% to 47.25% between 2026-08-20 06:48 UTC and 17:03 UTC, alongside reports that ETH surged above $2,300 and traded as high as about $2,277-$2,300+. The exact driver is not confirmed.

  22. Odds SurgeWhat price will Ethereum hit in August?

    Ethereum $2,500 August Yes odds jump as ETH rallies above $2,300

    Polymarket’s August $2,500 Ethereum market surged from 5.6% to 47.25% over the 24 hours ending August 20, 2026. The move appears to have coincided with a broader ETH rally above $2,300 and a reported short squeeze, but the exact catalyst is not confirmed.

  23. Sustained DriftWhat price will Ethereum hit in August?

    ETH above $2,000 coincides with a sharp jump in August $2,400 odds

    Ethereum moved back above $2,000 on Aug. 20, and the August $2,400 Polymarket Yes market drifted sharply higher. The move may have coincided with broader crypto strength, but the source set does not prove a direct cause.

  24. Odds SurgeWhat price will Ethereum hit in August?

    Ethereum's $2,400 August market surged as ETH climbed above $2,300

    Ethereum moved back above $2,000 and, in the same 24-hour span, the August $2,400 Yes market jumped from 12.75% to 76.25% between 2026-08-19 17:00:16 UTC and 2026-08-20 17:03:05 UTC. The timing appears to coincide with broader ETH strength rather than proving a single catalyst.

  25. Unexplained MoveCA Temperley vs. CA Ferrocarril Midland - Exact Score

    Exact Score: Any Other Score slips: Yes odds 44.5% → 35.5%

    Yes moved lower from 44.5% to 35.5% (-9.0 points) between 2026-08-19T16:56:04.398Z and 2026-08-20T16:56:04.398Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  26. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

    Bitcoin’s Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026 level drops: Yes odds 47.5% → 37%

    Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026 moved lower from 47.5% to 37.0% (-10.5 points) between 2026-08-19T15:48:05.473Z and 2026-08-20T15:48:05.473Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  27. Odds SurgeWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

    Bitcoin $90K-by-2026 odds jumped after bullish BTC coverage

    Polymarket’s Yes contract for Bitcoin reaching $90,000 by December 31, 2026 rose 13.5 points over 24 hours, moving from 17.0% to 30.5%. The move coincided with fresh coverage of bullish year-end Bitcoin views from Anthony Scaramucci and Standard Chartered, though the exact driver is unconfirmed.

  28. Sustained DriftWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

    Bitcoin $80K 2026 contract rose after bullish crypto commentary

    Polymarket’s yes price for Bitcoin reaching $80,000 by December 31, 2026 climbed from 47.0% to 57.5% between August 20, 2026 05:33 UTC and 15:03 UTC, while fresh coverage highlighted bullish year-end Bitcoin views from Anthony Scaramucci and Standard Chartered.

  29. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

    Bitcoin’s Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026 level drifts higher: Yes odds 69% → 80.5%

    Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026 moved higher from 69.0% to 80.5% (+11.5 points) between 2026-08-20T04:18:05.615Z and 2026-08-20T15:03:05.802Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  30. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

    Bitcoin’s Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026 level jumps: Yes odds 49.5% → 80.5%

    Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026 moved higher from 49.5% to 80.5% (+31.0 points) between 2026-08-19T15:00:25.000Z and 2026-08-20T15:03:05.802Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  31. Unexplained MoveLoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

    Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2 drops: Over odds 50% → 0.1%

    Over moved lower from 50.0% to 0.1% (-50.0 points) between 2026-08-19T12:33:05.394Z and 2026-08-20T12:33:05.394Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  32. Unexplained MoveBitcoin above ___ on August 20?

    the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 20 in Bitcoin above ___ on August 20: Yes odds 5.3% → 99.8%

    the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 20 moved higher from 5.3% to 99.8% (+94.5 points) between 2026-08-19T12:00:22.000Z and 2026-08-20T12:48:05.407Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  33. Unexplained MoveLoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

    LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner jumps: Nongshim Red Force odds 53% → 100%

    Nongshim Red Force moved higher from 53.0% to 100.0% (+47.0 points) between 2026-08-19T12:00:22.000Z and 2026-08-20T12:03:05.593Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  34. Unexplained MoveLoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

    LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner jumps: Nongshim Red Force odds 55% → 96.5%

    Nongshim Red Force moved higher from 55.0% to 96.5% (+41.5 points) between 2026-08-19T12:03:05.593Z and 2026-08-20T12:03:05.593Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  35. Unexplained MoveAcademia Anzoategui FC vs. Trujillanos FC - Exact Score

    Exact Score: Academia Anzoategui FC 0 - 3 Trujillanos FC in Academia Anzoategui FC vs.: Yes odds 49.5% → 41%

    Exact Score: Academia Anzoategui FC 0 - 3 Trujillanos FC moved lower from 49.5% to 41.0% (-8.5 points) between 2026-08-19T23:03:02.795Z and 2026-08-20T11:56:05.507Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  36. Unexplained MoveLoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

    Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1 drops: Over odds 50% → 0.4%

    Over moved lower from 50.0% to 0.4% (-49.5 points) between 2026-08-19T11:03:05.410Z and 2026-08-20T11:03:05.410Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  37. Unexplained MoveLoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

    Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2 jumps: Under odds 50% → 99.6%

    Under moved higher from 50.0% to 99.6% (+49.6 points) between 2026-08-19T10:56:04.273Z and 2026-08-20T11:03:05.411Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  38. Unexplained MoveLoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

    Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2 drops: Over odds 50% → 0.4%

    Over moved lower from 50.0% to 0.4% (-49.5 points) between 2026-08-19T11:03:05.411Z and 2026-08-20T11:03:05.411Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  39. Unexplained MoveLoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

    Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2 jumps: Under odds 50% → 99.6%

    Under moved higher from 50.0% to 99.6% (+49.6 points) between 2026-08-19T10:56:04.273Z and 2026-08-20T11:03:05.411Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  40. Unexplained MoveLoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

    Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2 drops: Over odds 50% → 0.4%

    Over moved lower from 50.0% to 0.4% (-49.5 points) between 2026-08-19T11:03:05.411Z and 2026-08-20T11:03:05.411Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  41. Unexplained MoveLoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

    Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1 jumps: Under odds 50% → 100%

    Under moved higher from 50.0% to 100.0% (+50.0 points) between 2026-08-19T10:56:04.274Z and 2026-08-20T11:03:05.411Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  42. Unexplained MoveLoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

    Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1 drops: Over odds 50% → 0.1%

    Over moved lower from 50.0% to 0.1% (-50.0 points) between 2026-08-19T11:03:05.411Z and 2026-08-20T11:03:05.411Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  43. Odds SurgeWhat price will Ethereum hit in August?

    Ethereum tops $2,000 as August $3,000 odds jump from 0.15% to 3.2%

    Ethereum traded back above $2,000 on August 20, while Polymarket’s August $3,000 market surged over the prior 24 hours from 0.15% to 3.2%. The move appears consistent with the firmer ETH price tape, but no single catalyst is confirmed.

  44. Odds SurgeWhat price will Ethereum hit in August?

    Ethereum jumped above $2,000 as August $2,500 odds surged

    Ethereum traded above $2,000 on August 20, and Polymarket’s August $2,500 “Yes” market climbed sharply over the prior 24 hours. The move appears consistent with the stronger ETH price tape, though the exact driver of the odds swing is not confirmed.

  45. Odds PlungeWhat price will Ethereum hit in August?

    ETH surge above $2,000 coincides with a dip in Polymarket $2,400 odds

    Ethereum rose above $2,000 on August 20, and that move likely coincided with a modest slide in Polymarket Yes odds for Ethereum to reach $2,400 in August, from 56.25% to 52.05%.

  46. Odds SurgeWhat price will Ethereum hit in August?

    Ethereum rally coincides with a sharp jump in August $2,500 Polymarket odds

    Ethereum-related coverage on August 19-20 pointed to a fast rebound, and Polymarket’s August $2,500 Ethereum market surged in the same 24-hour window, rising from 0.95% to 27.2%.

  47. Sustained DriftWhat price will Ethereum hit in August?

    Ethereum tops $2,000 as Polymarket odds for $2,400 August hit 52.6%

    Ethereum traded back above $2,000 on August 20, and the Polymarket market for ETH reaching $2,400 in August climbed from 41.85% to 52.55% during a sustained drift from 05:18 UTC to 09:03 UTC.

  48. Odds SurgeWhat price will Ethereum hit in August?

    Ethereum’s August $2,400 market surges as ETH trades above $2,000

    Ethereum’s August $2,400 Polymarket market jumped sharply over the last 24 hours while ETH traded above $2,000 in reports from Aug. 19-20, 2026. The move coincided with a broader crypto rally, but the exact catalyst for the odds surge is not confirmed in the supplied sources.

  49. Unexplained MoveWhat price will Ethereum hit in August?

    Ethereum dip to $1,800 in August in What price will Ethereum hit in August market drops: Yes odds 32% → 3.5%

    Ethereum dip to $1,800 in August moved lower from 32.0% to 3.5% (-28.5 points) between 2026-08-19T09:00:14.000Z and 2026-08-20T09:03:05.386Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

  50. Odds PlungeWhat price will Ethereum hit in August?

    Ethereum $1,900 dip odds plunged over 24 hours as ETH stayed near that level

    Polymarket’s Yes side on Ethereum dipping to $1,900 in August fell sharply over the Aug. 19-Aug. 20 window, while coverage showed ETH trading above $1,900 around the same period. No single catalyst is confirmed, so the odds move appears to have coincided with broader price strength and event-driven headlines.