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Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?

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Current leader
No 100%
Leader 24h
0%
Volume
670.8K
Liquidity
27.8K

Top outcomes

2 outcomes

No

100%

0% 24h

Yes

0%

0% 24h

Odds chart

Probability over time

Story so far

Needs a refresh

The market for Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026 has moved lower: the Yes probability fell from 11.5% to 7.5% over July 4-5, 2026. The draft entry suggests a news item quoting Dmitry Gordon may have reinforced the decline, but that link is not firmly established from the provided inputs.

No major update has changed the story in 54 days.

Latest update

No updates yet

The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • CLOB price history shows the Yes probability fell 4.0 points over about 24 hours.
  • A Google News RSS item quoting Dmitry Gordon may have reinforced the downward move, based on the draft entry.

Unresolved questions

  • Whether the price drop was driven mainly by the news item or by broader market positioning.
  • Whether any additional news or polling around July 4-5, 2026 also contributed.
  • Whether the reported view about elections waiting until the war ends is durable or just a short-term headline effect.

People and institutions to watch

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026Dmitry GordonGoogle News RSS

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

No timeline entries match the current filters.

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