By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Current leader
5%
5%
1 outcome
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungePartly sourcedThe Yes price for a Ukraine election by December 31, 2026 fell from 11.5% to 7.5% over July 4-5, 2026. A Google News RSS item cited Dmitry Gordon saying Ukraine will not hold elections until the war ends, which may have reinforced the move.
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026: 12% → 8%
-4.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe Yes price for a Ukraine election by December 31, 2026 fell from 11.5% to 7.5% over July 4-5, 2026. A Google News RSS item cited Dmitry Gordon saying Ukraine will not hold elections until the war ends, which may have reinforced the move.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
Odds chart
Living timeline
The market’s Yes outcome for "Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026" dropped 4.0 points, from 11.5% to 7.5%, between 2026-07-04T00:00:07.000Z and 2026-07-05T02:00:05.538Z. The supplied source context includes a Google News RSS headline quoting Dmitry Gordon as saying Ukraine will not hold elections until the war ends. That note is consistent with the decline, but the data only supports correlation, not a confirmed causal link. The move also coincided with modest reported volume of 1,172.42161 on the outcome token. No broader confirmation was provided here on any policy change, election announcement, or legal shift.
The measured move
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026: 11.5% → 7.5%
Yes odds for Ukraine election by December 31, 2026 moved down 4.0 points, from 0.115 to 0.075, over the July 4 to July 5 UTC window.
Watch for any official Ukrainian election timetable, wartime legal changes, or additional reporting that confirms or contradicts the idea that elections will wait until the war ends.
Google News RSS
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Ukraine election market falls after report says elections may wait until war ends
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