activeGeopoliticsDecember 31, 2026 -1% 24h

Ukraine election held by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

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Current leader
December 31, 2026 9%
Largest 24h move
December 31, 2026 -1%
24h volume
54.1
Liquidity
38.8K

Top candidates

2 outcomes

December 31, 2026

9%

-1% 24h

June 30, 2026

0%

0% 24h

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Living timeline · 1 significant update

Ukraine election market falls after report says elections may wait until war ends

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Odds chart showing latest December 31, 2026 probability of 8%.

Story so far

Needs a refresh

The market for Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026 has moved lower: the Yes probability fell from 11.5% to 7.5% over July 4-5, 2026. The draft entry suggests a news item quoting Dmitry Gordon may have reinforced the decline, but that link is not firmly established from the provided inputs.

No major update has changed the story in 10 days.

Latest update

Ukraine election market falls after report says elections may wait until war ends

The Yes price for a Ukraine election by December 31, 2026 fell from 11.5% to 7.5% over July 4-5, 2026. A Google News RSS item cited Dmitry Gordon saying Ukraine will not hold elections until the war ends, which may have reinforced the move.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • CLOB price history shows the Yes probability fell 4.0 points over about 24 hours.
  • A Google News RSS item quoting Dmitry Gordon may have reinforced the downward move, based on the draft entry.

Unresolved questions

  • Whether the price drop was driven mainly by the news item or by broader market positioning.
  • Whether any additional news or polling around July 4-5, 2026 also contributed.
  • Whether the reported view about elections waiting until the war ends is durable or just a short-term headline effect.

People and institutions to watch

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026Dmitry GordonGoogle News RSS

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The market’s Yes outcome for "Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026" dropped 4.0 points, from 11.5% to 7.5%, between 2026-07-04T00:00:07.000Z and 2026-07-05T02:00:05.538Z. The supplied source context includes a Google News RSS headline quoting Dmitry Gordon as saying Ukraine will not hold elections until the war ends. That note is consistent with the decline, but the data only supports correlation, not a confirmed causal link. The move also coincided with modest reported volume of 1,172.42161 on the outcome token. No broader confirmation was provided here on any policy change, election announcement, or legal shift.

    What changed

    Yes odds for Ukraine election by December 31, 2026 moved down 4.0 points, from 0.115 to 0.075, over the July 4 to July 5 UTC window.

    What to watch next

    Watch for any official Ukrainian election timetable, wartime legal changes, or additional reporting that confirms or contradicts the idea that elections will wait until the war ends.

    Sources