Weather markets, explained
Weather
Weather market movers, recent explanations, and context for forecasts, storms, temperature records, hurricanes, and wildfire risk.
Moving now
Biggest recent shifts
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 28?
15°C on August 28 49%
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 28?
between 58-59°F on August 28 32%
Lowest temperature in Zhengzhou on August 28?
21°C on August 28 50%
Lowest temperature in Jinan on August 28?
22°C or higher on August 28 49%
Why these markets move
Weather markets can reprice quickly when model runs, official advisories, or observed conditions change. PolySays highlights whether a move is tied to official forecasts or still just volume.
Signals to watch
- Official forecast and advisory updates
- Model run shifts and observed conditions
- Settlement criteria and reporting stations
What changed recently
Recent market explanations
No recent explanations are available for this topic yet.
Weather
Latest movement explanations
Showing 100 of 100 matched markets.
Highest temperature during Burning Man 2026?
87°F or 88°F
45%
91°F or 92°F
45%
95°F or 96°F
44%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Houston on August 28?
between 94-95°F on August 28
36%
between 92-93°F on August 28
28%
between 90-91°F on August 28
12%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Austin on August 28?
between 100-101°F on August 28
45%
between 98-99°F on August 28
35%
between 102-103°F on August 28
12%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Houston on August 28?
between 76-77°F on August 28
27%
between 78-79°F on August 28
27%
between 74-75°F on August 28
26%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Denver on August 28?
between 66-67°F on August 28
35%
between 64-65°F on August 28
30%
between 68-69°F on August 28
28%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Austin on August 28?
69°F or below on August 28
36%
between 74-75°F on August 28
28%
between 72-73°F on August 28
27%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 28?
between 62-63°F on August 28
36%
between 64-65°F on August 28
34%
between 60-61°F on August 28
28%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Miami on August 28?
between 78-79°F on August 28
37%
between 80-81°F on August 28
35%
between 82-83°F on August 28
18%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Atlanta on August 28?
between 72-73°F on August 28
33%
between 70-71°F on August 28
29%
between 74-75°F on August 28
26%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Dallas on August 28?
between 78-79°F on August 28
34%
between 80-81°F on August 28
33%
between 76-77°F on August 28
24%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 28?
between 72-73°F on August 28
36%
between 70-71°F on August 28
24%
between 68-69°F on August 28
24%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Seattle on August 28?
between 58-59°F on August 28
36%
between 56-57°F on August 28
33%
between 60-61°F on August 28
24%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Toronto on August 28?
15°C on August 28
30%
14°C on August 28
28%
16°C on August 28
27%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on August 28?
9°C on August 28
31%
8°C on August 28
27%
4°C or below on August 28
26%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 28?
20°C or higher on August 28
41%
10°C or below on August 28
40%
19°C on August 28
37%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 28?
between 82-83°F on August 28
54%
between 84-85°F on August 28
23%
between 80-81°F on August 28
17%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Miami on August 28?
between 92-93°F on August 28
47%
between 90-91°F on August 28
45%
between 88-89°F on August 28
6%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 28?
between 88-89°F on August 28
35%
between 90-91°F on August 28
30%
between 86-87°F on August 28
20%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Dallas on August 28?
between 98-99°F on August 28
52%
between 100-101°F on August 28
31%
between 96-97°F on August 28
9%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in NYC on August 28?
between 84-85°F on August 28
36%
between 82-83°F on August 28
34%
between 86-87°F on August 28
13%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Seattle on August 28?
between 72-73°F on August 28
40%
between 70-71°F on August 28
29%
between 68-69°F on August 28
16%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Toronto on August 28?
24°C on August 28
36%
23°C on August 28
31%
25°C on August 28
15%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on August 28?
19°C on August 28
39%
20°C on August 28
35%
21°C on August 28
12%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 28?
32°C on August 28
36%
31°C on August 28
22%
33°C on August 28
19%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 28?
15°C on August 28
49%
13°C on August 28
49%
14°C on August 28
49%
Largest 24h move
15°C on August 28 0%
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 28?
between 58-59°F on August 28
32%
between 56-57°F on August 28
28%
between 60-61°F on August 28
28%
Largest 24h move
between 50-51°F on August 28 0%
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Zhengzhou on August 28?
21°C on August 28
50%
19°C on August 28
49%
23°C on August 28
49%
Largest 24h move
21°C on August 28 0%
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Jinan on August 28?
22°C or higher on August 28
49%
21°C on August 28
26%
19°C on August 28
25%
Largest 24h move
22°C or higher on August 28 0%
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 29?
17°C or higher on August 29
30%
12°C on August 29
27%
13°C on August 29
27%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Jeddah on August 29?
24°C or below on August 29
29%
31°C on August 29
27%
30°C on August 29
26%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 29?
31°C or higher on August 29
30%
21°C or below on August 29
28%
26°C on August 29
26%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on August 29?
10°C or below on August 29
34%
13°C on August 29
26%
14°C on August 29
26%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on August 29?
16°C on August 29
30%
17°C on August 29
27%
15°C on August 29
26%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Busan on August 29?
22°C or below on August 29
49%
32°C or higher on August 29
30%
25°C on August 29
26%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on August 29?
25°C or higher on August 29
30%
21°C on August 29
26%
20°C on August 29
26%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Moscow on August 29?
13°C or higher on August 29
48%
3°C or below on August 29
47%
8°C on August 29
26%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on August 29?
27°C on August 29
48%
26°C on August 29
46%
28°C on August 29
44%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on August 29?
24°C on August 29
47%
23°C on August 29
46%
25°C on August 29
44%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Wuhan on August 29?
26°C on August 29
46%
25°C on August 29
44%
24°C on August 29
43%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Beijing on August 29?
18°C on August 29
51%
19°C on August 29
48%
20°C on August 29
40%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Chongqing on August 29?
19°C or below on August 29
47%
24°C on August 29
45%
21°C on August 29
44%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Taipei on August 29?
27°C on August 29
35%
26°C on August 29
31%
28°C on August 29
25%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 29?
11°C or below on August 29
47%
21°C or higher on August 29
47%
15°C on August 29
44%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
11°C or below on August 29
41%
13°C on August 29
31%
12°C on August 29
29%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Milan on August 29?
23°C or higher on August 29
30%
13°C or below on August 29
28%
18°C on August 29
27%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Singapore on August 29?
29°C on August 29
38%
28°C on August 29
34%
27°C on August 29
32%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 29?
27°C on August 29
52%
28°C on August 29
36%
26°C on August 29
17%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 29?
27°C on August 29
45%
26°C on August 29
31%
25°C on August 29
23%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 29?
22°C on August 29
26%
23°C on August 29
26%
21°C on August 29
23%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 29?
28°C or higher on August 29
30%
25°C on August 29
26%
24°C on August 29
25%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Munich on August 29?
10°C or below on August 29
28%
14°C on August 29
28%
13°C on August 29
27%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Lucknow on August 29?
27°C on August 29
38%
26°C on August 29
31%
22°C or below on August 29
27%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 29?
10°C on August 29
31%
11°C on August 29
31%
6°C or below on August 29
28%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Ankara on August 29?
9°C or below on August 29
48%
19°C or higher on August 29
30%
13°C on August 29
26%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 29?
24°C on August 29
39%
25°C on August 29
32%
23°C on August 29
25%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 29?
16°C on August 29
41%
17°C on August 29
26%
15°C on August 29
21%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in London on August 29?
17°C on August 29
46%
18°C on August 29
29%
19°C on August 29
25%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 29?
34°C on August 29
43%
33°C on August 29
29%
35°C on August 29
13%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Helsinki on August 29?
20°C on August 29
40%
19°C on August 29
25%
21°C on August 29
18%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 29?
22°C on August 29
41%
23°C on August 29
26%
21°C on August 29
20%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Busan on August 29?
32°C on August 29
40%
33°C on August 29
31%
31°C on August 29
12%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 29?
25°C on August 29
37%
24°C on August 29
33%
26°C on August 29
10%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 29?
19°C on August 29
23%
20°C on August 29
23%
21°C on August 29
20%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 29?
34°C on August 29
27%
33°C on August 29
26%
35°C on August 29
18%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 29?
29°C on August 29
23%
28°C on August 29
20%
30°C on August 29
14%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 29?
33°C on August 29
27%
32°C on August 29
24%
31°C on August 29
14%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 29?
31°C on August 29
32%
30°C on August 29
26%
32°C on August 29
22%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 29?
29°C on August 29
24%
30°C on August 29
22%
28°C on August 29
19%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Taipei on August 29?
35°C on August 29
30%
34°C on August 29
27%
36°C on August 29
20%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 29?
21°C on August 29
26%
20°C on August 29
20%
22°C on August 29
20%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 29?
30°C on August 29
44%
31°C on August 29
41%
29°C on August 29
13%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Milan on August 29?
29°C on August 29
44%
30°C on August 29
44%
28°C on August 29
14%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Singapore on August 29?
33°C on August 29
50%
32°C on August 29
28%
34°C on August 29
23%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 29?
32°C on August 29
49%
33°C on August 29
24%
31°C on August 29
19%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 29?
33°C on August 29
27%
32°C on August 29
24%
31°C on August 29
18%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 29?
28°C on August 29
31%
27°C on August 29
30%
29°C on August 29
23%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 29?
33°C on August 29
70%
32°C on August 29
20%
34°C on August 29
17%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Munich on August 29?
25°C on August 29
41%
24°C on August 29
28%
23°C on August 29
19%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Lucknow on August 29?
33°C on August 29
41%
32°C on August 29
40%
34°C on August 29
17%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 29?
15°C on August 29
64%
14°C on August 29
18%
16°C on August 29
18%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Ankara on August 29?
24°C on August 29
40%
23°C on August 29
37%
25°C on August 29
18%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 29?
29°C on August 29
30%
30°C on August 29
22%
28°C on August 29
18%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Paris on August 29?
23°C on August 29
42%
24°C on August 29
38%
22°C on August 29
28%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in London on August 29?
21°C on August 29
32%
20°C on August 29
27%
22°C on August 29
21%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Zhengzhou on August 28?
27°C on August 28
36%
28°C on August 28
36%
29°C on August 28
25%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Jinan on August 28?
26°C or higher on August 28
54%
25°C on August 28
26%
24°C on August 28
5%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Manila on August 29?
21°C or below on August 29
28%
25°C on August 29
26%
26°C on August 29
26%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Karachi on August 29?
31°C or higher on August 29
30%
21°C or below on August 29
28%
26°C on August 29
26%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on August 29?
20°C or below on August 29
47%
23°C on August 29
26%
24°C on August 29
26%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 29?
26°C on August 29
26%
27°C on August 29
26%
24°C on August 29
25%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 29?
37°C on August 29
25%
36°C on August 29
24%
38°C on August 29
17%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers
34%
between 4.6m & 4.8m square kilometers
28%
between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers
18%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026
44%
exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026
21%
exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
No
89%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026
45%
between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026
35%
between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026
13%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Natural Disaster in 2026?
No
79%
Yes
22%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
No
84%
Yes
16%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
No
91%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026
99%
3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026
95%
4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026
86%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest temperature in Manila on August 29?
28°C on August 29
21%
29°C on August 29
21%
27°C on August 29
19%
Largest 24h move
28°C on August 29 0%
Volume
0