Weather markets, explained
Weather
Weather market movers, recent explanations, and context for forecasts, storms, temperature records, hurricanes, and wildfire risk.
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Last 24 hours
Biggest recent shifts
Weather
Highest temperature in Munich on October 20?
97%
97%
Largest mover: an outcome
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on October 20?
97%
97%
1% → 97% in 24h
Weather
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 20?
99.6%
100%
Largest mover: an outcome
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on October 20?
99.6%
100%
7% → 100% in 24h
Context
Why these markets move
Weather markets can reprice quickly when model runs, official advisories, or observed conditions change. PolySays highlights whether a move is tied to official forecasts or still just volume.
Signals to watch
- Official forecast and advisory updates
- Model run shifts and observed conditions
- Settlement criteria and reporting stations
What changed recently
Recent reporting
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 20? — probability falls to 71.6%
The tracked probability fell to 71.6%, down 28.2 percentage points from 99.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 20? — probability falls to 55.05%
The tracked probability fell to 55.05%, down 44.8 percentage points from 99.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21? — probability rises to 53.2%
The tracked probability rose to 53.2%, up 25.3 percentage points from 27.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 21? — probability rises to 96.45%
The tracked probability rose to 96.45%, up 3.7 percentage points from 92.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 21? — probability rises to 98.55%
The tracked probability rose to 98.55%, up 5.5 percentage points from 93% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 21? — probability rises to 98.95%
The tracked probability rose to 98.95%, up 6.5 percentage points from 92.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Newly eligible
New weather markets
Lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on October 21?
93.5% 93.5% · Data ready
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on October 21?
70% 70.0% · Data ready
Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on October 21?
98.8% 98.8% · Data ready
Highest temperature in Manila on October 21?
96.5% 96.5% · Data ready
Highest temperature in Karachi on October 21?
94.5% 94.5% · Data ready
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on October 21?
93.5% 93.5% · Data ready
Weather
Markets worth watching
Showing 100 of 100 matched markets.
The filter applies to this curated selection.
Search all coverage →Weather
Highest temperature in Munich on October 20?
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on October 20?
97%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$10.8K
Latest: Probability moved from 90.4% to 93.5% (+3.1 percentage points). Observations were 19 minutes 54 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 15:31:51 UTC to 2026-10-20 15:51:45 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on October 20?
Yes
97%
No
3%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$10.8K
Weather
Highest temperature in Shanghai on October 21?
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 21?
98%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$13.7K
Latest: Probability moved from 78.5% to 97% (+18.5 percentage points). Observations were 32 minutes 22 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:32:28 UTC to 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 21?
Yes
98%
No
2%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$13.7K
Weather
Highest temperature in Panama City on October 20?
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on October 20?
96%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$1K
Latest: Probability moved from 92.4% to 95.55% (+3.15 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 45 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 04:02:56 UTC to 2026-10-21 04:20:41 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on October 20?
Yes
96%
No
4%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1K
Weather
Lowest temperature in Beijing on October 21?
Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 0°C or below on October 21?
99%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$159.4
Latest: Probability moved from 89.5% to 98.5% (+9 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 43 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 01:30:53 UTC to 2026-10-21 01:45:36 UTC.
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Beijing be 0°C or below on October 21?
Yes
99%
No
2%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$159.4
Weather
Lowest temperature in Madrid on October 20?
Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 10°C on October 20?
98%
Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 11°C or higher on October 20?
1%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$373.1
Latest: Probability moved from 93.75% to 97% (+3.25 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 8 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 02:46:22 UTC to 2026-10-21 03:02:30 UTC.
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 11°C or higher on October 20?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$173.5
Weather
Highest temperature in Chengdu on October 21?
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 21?
99%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$5.1K
Latest: Probability moved from 91.8% to 95.6% (+3.8 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 45 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 04:02:56 UTC to 2026-10-21 04:20:41 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 21?
Yes
99%
No
1%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$5.1K
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 10°C on October 20?
Yes
98%
No
2%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$199.6
Weather
Highest temperature in Wuhan on October 21?
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 21?
96%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$1.8K
Latest: Probability moved from 85.5% to 94% (+8.5 percentage points). Observations were 32 minutes 22 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:32:28 UTC to 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 21?
Yes
96%
No
4%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.8K
Weather
Highest temperature in Singapore on October 21?
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 21?
99%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$5.5K
Latest: Probability moved from 92.5% to 98.95% (+6.45 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 21?
Yes
99%
No
1%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$5.5K
Weather
Highest temperature in Madrid on October 20?
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on October 20?
95%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$3.3K
Latest: Probability moved from 98.5% to 94.5% (-4 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 53 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 00:01:44 UTC to 2026-10-21 00:15:37 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on October 20?
Yes
95%
No
5%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$3.3K
Weather
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on October 21?
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 21?
99%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$4.2K
Latest: Probability moved from 93% to 98.55% (+5.55 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 21?
Yes
99%
No
1%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$4.2K
Weather
Highest temperature in Warsaw on October 20?
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 20?
99%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$2.4K
Latest: Probability moved from 96% to 99.85% (+3.85 percentage points). Observations were 18 minutes 19 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:01:02 UTC to 2026-10-21 06:19:22 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 20?
Yes
99%
No
1%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$2.4K
Weather
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 21?
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 21?
96%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$1.5K
Latest: Probability moved from 92.75% to 96.45% (+3.7 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 21?
Yes
96%
No
4%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.5K
Weather
Highest temperature in Wellington on October 21?
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 21?
99%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$4.5K
Latest: Probability moved from 96% to 99.2% (+3.2 percentage points). Observations were 32 minutes 22 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:32:28 UTC to 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 21?
Yes
99%
No
1%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$4.5K
Weather
Highest temperature in Istanbul on October 21?
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21?
53%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$21.8K
Latest: Probability moved from 27.9% to 53.2% (+25.3 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21?
Yes
53%
No
47%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$21.8K
Weather
Lowest temperature in Karachi on October 20?
Will the lowest temperature in Karachi be 23°C on October 20?
50%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$1
Latest: Probability moved from 88% to 53.05% (-34.95 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 7 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 17:01:46 UTC to 2026-10-20 17:17:53 UTC.
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Karachi be 23°C on October 20?
Yes
50%
No
50%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1
Weather
Highest temperature in Istanbul on October 20?
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?
72%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$20.9K
Latest: Probability moved from 67.5% to 73.35% (+5.85 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 3 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 05:17:25 UTC to 2026-10-21 05:30:29 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?
Yes
72%
No
28%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$20.9K
Weather
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on October 20?
Will the lowest temperature in Istanbul be 4°C or below on October 20?
62%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$1.1K
Latest: Probability moved from 53.05% to 59.85% (+6.8 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 57 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:32:28 UTC to 2026-10-21 06:50:25 UTC.
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Istanbul be 4°C or below on October 20?
Yes
62%
No
38%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.1K
Weather
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on October 20?
Will the lowest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on October 20?
50%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 93.5% to 50% (-43.5 percentage points). Observations were 27 minutes 7 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 13:32:57 UTC to 2026-10-20 14:00:04 UTC.
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on October 20?
Yes
50%
No
50%
Leader 24h
Total volume
—
Weather
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on October 20?
Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on October 20?
55%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$11.1
Latest: Probability moved from 85.5% to 54% (-31.5 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 15 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 14:30:30 UTC to 2026-10-20 14:45:45 UTC.
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 17°C on October 20?
Yes
55%
No
46%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$11.1
Weather
Lowest temperature in Ankara on October 20?
Will the lowest temperature in Ankara be 1°C on October 20?
54%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 82.5% to 54% (-28.5 percentage points). Observations were 9 minutes 57 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 15:51:45 UTC to 2026-10-20 16:01:42 UTC.
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Ankara be 1°C on October 20?
Yes
54%
No
46%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$20.6
Weather
Lowest temperature in Moscow on October 20?
Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on October 20?
50%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 56% to 50% (-6 percentage points). Observations were 12 minutes 39 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 20:51:55 UTC to 2026-10-20 21:04:34 UTC.
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on October 20?
Yes
50%
No
51%
Leader 24h
Total volume
—
Weather
Lowest temperature in Lucknow on October 20?
Will the lowest temperature in Lucknow be 19°C on October 20?
50%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$19.3
Latest: Probability moved from 55% to 50% (-5 percentage points). Observations were 3 hours 19 minutes 59 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 17:31:56 UTC to 2026-10-20 20:51:55 UTC.
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Lucknow be 19°C on October 20?
Yes
50%
No
50%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$19.3
Weather
What will the biggest earthquake be on October 20, 2026?
Will the biggest earthquake on October 20, 2026 be 6.1 or more?
98%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$98
Latest: Probability moved from 77.3% to 98.1% (+20.8 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 20 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 13:15:37 UTC to 2026-10-20 13:32:57 UTC.
Weather
Will the biggest earthquake on October 20, 2026 be 6.1 or more?
Yes
98%
No
2%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$98
Weather
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 20?
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 20?
55%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$349.1
Latest: Probability moved from 99.85% to 55.05% (-44.8 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 20?
Yes
55%
No
45%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$349.1
Weather
Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 20?
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 20?
72%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$366.8
Latest: Probability moved from 99.8% to 71.6% (-28.2 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 20?
Yes
72%
No
28%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$366.8
Weather
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on October 20?
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 20?
97%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$145.7
Latest: Probability moved from 49.75% to 95.85% (+46.1 percentage points). Observations were 27 minutes 57 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 05:02:32 UTC to 2026-10-21 05:30:29 UTC.
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on October 20?
Yes
97%
No
4%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$145.7
Weather
Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?
Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
97%
Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
97%
Will there be at least 4900 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
41%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$122.9
Latest: Probability moved from 99.5% to 96.45% (-3.05 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 28 seconds apart: 2026-10-17 18:02:12 UTC to 2026-10-17 18:15:40 UTC.
Weather
Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
Yes
97%
No
3%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$42.2
Weather
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on October 20?
Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be -3°C on October 20?
50%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$5
Latest: Probability moved from 99.45% to 50.95% (-48.5 percentage points). Observations were 12 minutes 39 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 20:51:55 UTC to 2026-10-20 21:04:34 UTC.
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be -3°C on October 20?
Yes
50%
No
50%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$5
Weather
Will there be at least 4900 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
Yes
41%
No
59%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$64.3
Weather
Highest temperature in Chengdu on October 20?
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on October 20?
97%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$2.5K
Latest: Probability moved from 89% to 93.5% (+4.5 percentage points). Observations were 30 minutes 38 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 08:30:12 UTC to 2026-10-20 09:00:50 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on October 20?
Yes
97%
No
3%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$2.5K
Weather
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on October 20?
Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 6°C on October 20?
50%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$25.2
Latest: Probability moved from 84% to 52.5% (-31.5 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 55 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 21:19:32 UTC to 2026-10-20 21:33:27 UTC.
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 6°C on October 20?
Yes
50%
No
51%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$25.2
Weather
Highest temperature in Shanghai on October 20?
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on October 20?
97%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$2.2K
Latest: Probability moved from 95.7% to 92.4% (-3.3 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 2 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 03:47:54 UTC to 2026-10-21 04:02:56 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on October 20?
Yes
97%
No
3%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$2.2K
Weather
Highest temperature in Tokyo on October 20?
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 20?
99%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$3.9K
Latest: Probability moved from 88.75% to 94.6% (+5.85 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 15 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 14:30:30 UTC to 2026-10-20 14:45:45 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 20?
Yes
99%
No
1%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$3.9K
Weather
Highest temperature in Manila on October 20?
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 20?
98%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$587.9
Latest: Probability moved from 94% to 97% (+3 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 53 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 06:47:18 UTC to 2026-10-20 07:01:11 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on October 20?
Yes
98%
No
2%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$587.9
Weather
Highest temperature in Singapore on October 20?
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 20?
98%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$1.1K
Latest: Probability moved from 89% to 96.5% (+7.5 percentage points). Observations were 28 minutes 35 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 06:32:36 UTC to 2026-10-20 07:01:11 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 20?
Yes
98%
No
2%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.1K
Weather
Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?
Yes
97%
No
3%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$16.4
Weather
Highest temperature in Busan on October 20?
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on October 20?
96%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$1.7K
Latest: Probability moved from 92.1% to 95.5% (+3.4 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 3 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 11:01:46 UTC to 2026-10-20 11:15:49 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on October 20?
Yes
96%
No
4%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.7K
Weather
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?
6%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$21
Latest: Probability moved from 13.7% to 10.5% (-3.2 percentage points). Observations were 10 minutes 4 seconds apart: 2026-10-15 15:30:28 UTC to 2026-10-15 15:40:32 UTC.
Weather
Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?
Yes
6%
No
94%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$21
Weather
Highest temperature in Beijing on October 20?
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 20?
96%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$2.8K
Latest: Probability moved from 96.5% to 92.75% (-3.75 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 53 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 01:45:36 UTC to 2026-10-21 02:00:28 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on October 20?
Yes
96%
No
4%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$2.8K
Weather
Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 18?
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?
96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?
2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on October 18?
1%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$5.8K
Latest: Probability moved from 0.05% to 3.5% (+3.45 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 41 seconds apart: 2026-10-18 23:01:39 UTC to 2026-10-18 23:17:19 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on October 18?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$672.5
Weather
Highest temperature in Wellington on October 20?
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 20?
99%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$3.4K
Latest: Probability moved from 99.35% to 94.85% (-4.5 percentage points). Observations were 3 hours 46 minutes 41 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 17:17:53 UTC to 2026-10-20 21:04:34 UTC.
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 20?
Yes
99%
No
1%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$3.4K
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?
Yes
96%
No
4%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$4K
Weather
Lowest temperature in Toronto on October 19?
Will the lowest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on October 19?
50%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 97.5% to 50.05% (-47.45 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 10 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 04:17:31 UTC to 2026-10-20 04:30:42 UTC.
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on October 19?
Yes
50%
No
50%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$45
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or higher on October 18?
Yes
2%
No
98%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1K
Weather
Lowest temperature in Wellington on October 20?
Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on October 20?
50%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$193
Latest: Probability moved from 96.45% to 50.05% (-46.4 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 25 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:50:25 UTC to 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC.
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on October 20?
Yes
50%
No
50%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$193
Weather
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 20?
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on October 20?
100%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$4K
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on October 20?
Yes
100%
No
0%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$4K
Weather
Highest temperature in Chongqing on October 21?
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 21?
96%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$1.6K
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on October 21?
Yes
96%
No
5%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.6K
Weather
Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 21?
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 21?
87%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$2.6K
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 21?
Yes
87%
No
13%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$2.6K
Weather
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on October 21?
Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be 2°C on October 21?
94%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$122.2
Weather
Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be 2°C on October 21?
Yes
94%
No
7%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$122.2
Weather
Highest temperature in Karachi on October 21?
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 21?
95%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$1.7K
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 21?
Yes
95%
No
6%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.7K
Weather
Highest temperature in Denver on October 20?
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on October 20?
100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on October 20?
0%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$4.7K
Weather
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on October 20?
Yes
100%
No
1%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$2.6K
Weather
Highest temperature in Manila on October 21?
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 21?
96%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$2.3K