Weather markets, explained

Weather

Weather market movers, recent explanations, and context for forecasts, storms, temperature records, hurricanes, and wildfire risk.

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Moving now

Biggest recent shifts

+7% 24h4.3K volume

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 76%

+2% 24h1.3K volume

Megaquake by June 30?

No 98%

-2% 24h96.4 volume

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026 34%

+2% 24h10.9 volume

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

less than 4m square kilometers 49%

Why these markets move

Weather markets can reprice quickly when model runs, official advisories, or observed conditions change. PolySays highlights whether a move is tied to official forecasts or still just volume.

Signals to watch

  • Official forecast and advisory updates
  • Model run shifts and observed conditions
  • Settlement criteria and reporting stations

What changed recently

Recent market explanations

Unexplained Move

Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet

Yes moved lower from 35.0% to 29.5% (-5.5 points) between 2026-06-23T18:45:46.297Z and 2026-06-24T18:45:46.297Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.

Weather

Latest news for active markets

Showing 11 of 11 matched markets.

activeWeather

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026

76%

4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026

28%

5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026

19%

Largest 24h move

3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026 +7%

Volume

4.3K

activeWeather

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

No

96%

Yes

4%

Leader 24h

+0%

Volume

1.6K

activeWeather

Megaquake by June 30?

No

98%

Yes

2%

Leader 24h

+2%

Volume

1.3K

activeWeather

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

No

94%

Yes

6%

Leader 24h

-0%

Volume

750.9

activeWeather

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026

34%

between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026

31%

between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026

14%

Largest 24h move

between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026 -2%

Volume

96.4

activeWeather

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

No

93%

Yes

7%

Leader 24h

+0%

Volume

41.7

activeWeather

Natural Disaster in 2026?

No

78%

Yes

22%

Leader 24h

+1%

Volume

35.8

activeWeather

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

No

84%

Yes

16%

Leader 24h

+1%

Volume

12.6

activeWeather

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

less than 4m square kilometers

49%

between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers

22%

between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers

12%

Largest 24h move

at least 5m square kilometers +2%

Volume

10.9

activeWeather

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026

69%

exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026

23%

exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026

4%

Largest 24h move

exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026 -1%

Volume

9

activeWeather

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

No

67%

Yes

33%

Leader 24h

—

Volume

2.7