Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2026.
- Current leader
- No 81%
- Leader 24h
- +1%
- Volume
- 101.6K
- Liquidity
- 1.2K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
81%
+1% 24h
Yes
19%
-1% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2026.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at and respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.
The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT. This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Living timeline · 11 significant updates
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 81%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 9 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Yes moved lower from 42.5% to 37.5% (-5.0 points) between 2026-07-06T01:00:05.480Z and 2026-07-06T01:35:05.393Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Yes" outcome in "Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?" made a sharp move from 42.5% to 37.5% between 2026-07-06T01:00:05.480Z and 2026-07-06T01:35:05.393Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -5.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.