By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
Current leader
80.2%
80%
2 outcomes
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 19.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 22.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 23% → 20%
-3.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 19.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 22.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 22.5% to 19.5% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T00:00:32.867Z to 2026-10-18T00:32:18.533Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 22.5% → 19.5%
Probability moved from 22.5% to 19.5% (-3 percentage points). Observations were 31 minutes 46 seconds apart: 2026-10-18 00:00:32 UTC to 2026-10-18 00:32:18 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g.,.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — probability falls to 19.5%
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