Brazil Presidential Election
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- Current leader
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 62%
- Largest 24h move
- Flávio Bolsonaro +5%
- 24h volume
- 2.2M
- Liquidity
- 13.4M
Top candidates
19 outcomes
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
62%
-2% 24h
Flávio Bolsonaro
35%
+5% 24h
Renan Santos
3%
+1% 24h
Augusto Cury
2%
-0% 24h
Ronaldo Caiado
0%
+0% 24h
Show all outcomes
Jair Bolsonaro
0%
0%
Romeu Zema
0%
0%
Tarcisio de Freitas
0%
0%
Fernando Haddad
0%
0%
Michelle Bolsonaro
0%
0%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
0%
0%
Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior
0%
0%
Camilo Santana
0%
0%
Geraldo Alckmin
0%
0%
Eduardo Leite
0%
0%
Aldo Rebelo
0%
0%
Tereza Cristina
0%
0%
Helder Barbalho
0%
0%
Pablo Marçal
0%
0%
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Story so far
Needs a refreshLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 2026 Brazil presidential market has moved higher, with the Yes side rising from 63.5% to 66.5% over the 24 hours ending August 16, 2026. The draft attribution says recent election coverage and polling updates kept him in focus, but no deeper causal claim is established in the provided memory.
No major update has changed the story in 13 days.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- Recent election coverage appears to have kept Lula in focus.
- Polling updates may have contributed to the move, based on the draft entry.
Unresolved questions
- Whether the price move reflects a durable shift or short-lived attention.
- Which specific polls or coverage items drove the 24-hour surge.
- How much of the move is noise versus new information.
People and institutions to watch
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
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