Brazil Presidential Election
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- Current leader
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 57%
- Largest 24h move
- Flávio Bolsonaro +1%
- 24h volume
- 843K
- Liquidity
- 9.2M
Top candidates
17 outcomes
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
57%
0% 24h
Flávio Bolsonaro
23%
+1% 24h
Renan Santos
13%
0% 24h
Fernando Haddad
2%
-0% 24h
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
-0% 24h
Show all outcomes
Camilo Santana
1%
-0%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
-1%
Romeu Zema
1%
0%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
0%
Geraldo Alckmin
0%
0%
Tereza Cristina
0%
+0%
Tarcisio de Freitas
0%
0%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
0%
0%
Aldo Rebelo
0%
0%
Helder Barbalho
0%
0%
Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior
0%
0%
Eduardo Leite
0%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g.,.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva probability of 61%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline