Finance markets, explained
Finance
Finance market movers, recent explanations, and context for earnings, listings, commodities, deal events, and macro-linked catalysts.
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Last 24 hours
Biggest recent shifts
Finance
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?
98.9%
99%
Largest mover: an outcome
Finance
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?
98.9%
99%
33% → 99% in 24h
Finance
What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit Week of October 19 2026?
13.5%
14%
Largest mover: an outcome
Finance
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $142.50 Week of October 19 2026?
13.5%
14%
76% → 14% in 24h
Context
Why these markets move
Finance markets are most useful when linked to filings, earnings calendars, commodity data, macro releases, or official company statements. Weak sourcing should stay clearly labeled.
Signals to watch
- Earnings and SEC filing calendars
- Company and regulator statements
- Commodity and macro data releases
What changed recently
Recent reporting
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability falls to 10%
The tracked probability fell to 10%, down 3.0 percentage points from 13% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above $1.35B? — probability rises to 27.5%
The tracked probability rose to 27.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 24.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability falls to 52.5%
The tracked probability fell to 52.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 55.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.6B? — probability rises to 85%
The tracked probability rose to 85%, up 9.5 percentage points from 75.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will [link omitted], Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $268 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 50.5%
The tracked probability fell to 50.5%, down 4.0 percentage points from 54.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 in October? — probability falls to 44.5%
The tracked probability fell to 44.5%, down 10.5 percentage points from 55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Newly eligible
New finance markets
What will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit Week of October 19 2026?
11.5% 11.5% · Data ready
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $72.50 Week of October 19 2026?
11.5% 11.5% · Data ready
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?
98.9% 98.9% · Data ready
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?
98.9% 98.9% · Data ready
What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit Week of October 19 2026?
67% 67.0% · Data ready
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of October 19 2026?
67% 67.0% · Data ready
Finance
Markets worth watching
Showing 57 of 57 matched markets.
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How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?
99%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$6.1K
Latest: Probability moved from 93.05% to 97.15% (+4.1 percentage points). Observations were 28 minutes 54 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 16:01:42 UTC to 2026-10-20 16:30:36 UTC.
Finance
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?
Yes
99%
No
1%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$6.1K
Finance
What will SK hynix (SKHY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $132 Week of October 19 2026?
12%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 13.5% to 10% (-3.5 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 6 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:19:22 UTC to 2026-10-21 06:32:28 UTC.
Finance
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $132 Week of October 19 2026?
Yes
12%
No
88%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$184
Finance
What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit Week of October 19 2026?
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of October 19 2026?
67%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 57.5% to 67% (+9.5 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Finance
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of October 19 2026?
Yes
67%
No
33%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$182.2
Finance
What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $68 in October?
46%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $44 in October?
20%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $32 in October?
4%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$288.5
Latest: Probability moved from 37% to 45.5% (+8.5 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Finance
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $68 in October?
Yes
46%
No
55%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$1.2K
Finance
What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $170 in October?
37%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 in October?
24%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $178 in October?
20%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$180
Latest: Probability moved from 13% to 10% (-3 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Finance
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $178 in October?
Yes
20%
No
80%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$60
Finance
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 in October?
Yes
24%
No
76%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$1.7K
Finance
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $188 in October?
Yes
8%
No
93%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$1.8K
Finance
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 28, 2026?
82%
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 30, 2026?
26%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$216.5
Latest: Probability moved from 84% to 80% (-4 percentage points). Observations were 3 hours 50 minutes 9 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 17:01:46 UTC to 2026-10-20 20:51:55 UTC.
Finance
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 30, 2026?
Yes
26%
No
75%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$176.5
Finance
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October?
Yes
10%
No
91%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$80
Finance
What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $204 in October?
51%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 in October?
45%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$72.8
Latest: Probability moved from 55% to 44.5% (-10.5 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Finance
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 in October?
Yes
45%
No
56%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$32.8
Finance
Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above __?
Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $5.5B?
58%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$144.9
Latest: Probability moved from 46% to 60% (+14 percentage points). Observations were 18 minutes 19 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:01:02 UTC to 2026-10-21 06:19:22 UTC.
Finance
Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $5.5B?
Yes
58%
No
42%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$144.9
Finance
What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit Week of October 19 2026?
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $268 Week of October 19 2026?
51%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 Week of October 19 2026?
7%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$35.9
Latest: Probability moved from 54.5% to 50.5% (-4 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Finance
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $268 Week of October 19 2026?
Yes
51%
No
50%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$30
Finance
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $44 in October?
Yes
20%
No
81%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$288.5
Finance
Will CoStar Group (CSGP) beat quarterly earnings?
Will CoStar Group (CSGP) beat quarterly earnings?
13%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$7.9
Latest: Probability moved from 26.05% to 15.25% (-10.8 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 43 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 01:30:53 UTC to 2026-10-21 01:45:36 UTC.
Finance
Will CoStar Group (CSGP) beat quarterly earnings?
Yes
13%
No
87%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$7.9
Finance
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $204 in October?
Yes
51%
No
50%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$40
Finance
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $170 in October?
Yes
37%
No
64%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$1.8K
Finance
Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026?
53%
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026?
49%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$47
Latest: Probability moved from 55.5% to 52.5% (-3 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Finance
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026?
Yes
49%
No
51%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$47
Finance
Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis)?
Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5% to 9.5%?
5%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0.5
Latest: Probability moved from 7.7% to 11.15% (+3.45 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 35 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 16:30:36 UTC to 2026-10-20 16:45:11 UTC.
Finance
Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5% to 9.5%?
Yes
5%
No
95%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$0.5
Finance
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above __?
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.6B?
85%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$10
Latest: Probability moved from 75.5% to 85% (+9.5 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Finance
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.6B?
Yes
85%
No
15%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$10
Finance
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 28, 2026?
Yes
82%
No
18%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$40
Finance
Will Carvana (CVNA) beat quarterly earnings?
Will Carvana (CVNA) beat quarterly earnings?
9%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 3.05% to 6.1% (+3.05 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 27 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 04:30:42 UTC to 2026-10-20 04:45:09 UTC.
Finance
Will Carvana (CVNA) beat quarterly earnings?
Yes
9%
No
92%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$1.3K
Finance
CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR)?
CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 93.5%+?
9%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 4.3% to 10.2% (+5.9 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 45 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 04:02:56 UTC to 2026-10-21 04:20:41 UTC.
Finance
CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 93.5%+?
Yes
9%
No
91%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$953.9
Finance
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026?
Yes
53%
No
48%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$1.3K
Finance
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 Week of October 19 2026?
Yes
7%
No
93%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$5.9
Finance
Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above __?
Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above $1.35B?
28%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 24.5% to 27.5% (+3 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Finance
Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above $1.35B?
Yes
28%
No
73%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$520.2
Finance
Will KLA Corp (KLAC) Q1 total revenues be above __?
Will KLA Corp (KLAC) Q1 total revenues be above $3.95B?
95%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$61.4
Latest: Probability moved from 91.2% to 94.9% (+3.7 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 00:15:37 UTC to 2026-10-21 00:33:00 UTC.
Finance
Will KLA Corp (KLAC) Q1 total revenues be above $3.95B?
Yes
95%
No
5%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$61.4
Finance
Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) beat quarterly earnings?
Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) beat quarterly earnings?
16%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$43.5
Latest: Probability moved from 18.15% to 33.9% (+15.75 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 27 seconds apart: 2026-10-19 06:01:05 UTC to 2026-10-19 06:15:32 UTC.
Finance
Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) beat quarterly earnings?
Yes
16%
No
84%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$43.5
Finance
What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October?
49%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 44.25% to 49.95% (+5.7 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 57 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 06:32:28 UTC to 2026-10-21 06:50:25 UTC.
Finance
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October?
Yes
49%
No
51%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$1.3K
Finance
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $186 in October?
Yes
10%
No
91%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$2.6K
Finance
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $200 in October?
Yes
3%
No
97%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$1.4K
Finance
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October?
Yes
10%
No
90%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$40
Finance
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $32 in October?
Yes
4%
No
96%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$0
Finance
Will Colgate-Palmolive (CL) beat quarterly earnings?
Will Colgate-Palmolive (CL) beat quarterly earnings?
48%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 37% to 47.5% (+10.5 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 43 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 02:17:21 UTC to 2026-10-20 02:31:03 UTC.
Finance
Will Colgate-Palmolive (CL) beat quarterly earnings?
Yes
48%
No
53%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$2.1K
Finance
What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit Week of October 19 2026?
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $142.50 Week of October 19 2026?
14%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$50
Finance
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $142.50 Week of October 19 2026?
Yes
14%
No
87%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$50
Finance
What will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit Week of October 19 2026?
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $72.50 Week of October 19 2026?
12%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$1.8K
Finance
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $72.50 Week of October 19 2026?
Yes
12%
No
89%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.8K