Finance markets, explained
Finance
Finance market movers, recent explanations, and context for earnings, listings, commodities, deal events, and macro-linked catalysts.
Moving now
Biggest recent shifts
Why these markets move
Finance markets are most useful when linked to filings, earnings calendars, commodity data, macro releases, or official company statements. Weak sourcing should stay clearly labeled.
Signals to watch
- Earnings and SEC filing calendars
- Company and regulator statements
- Commodity and macro data releases
What changed recently
Recent market explanations
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August in What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in: Yes odds 13.5% → 19%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August moved higher from 13.5% to 19.0% (+5.5 points) between 2026-08-17T08:03:05.394Z and 2026-08-18T08:03:05.394Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
WTI $65 August low odds plunge as crude weakens on demand concerns
The chance of WTI hitting $65 in August fell sharply from 7.0% to 1.85% between August 12 and August 18, 2026. Reuters reported oil settling down 2% on a weak demand outlook and a hefty U.S. crude build, which may have coincided with the move.
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August in What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in: Yes odds 39% → 20.5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August moved lower from 39.0% to 20.5% (-18.5 points) between 2026-08-17T08:00:14.000Z and 2026-08-18T08:03:05.395Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
WTI $70-low August odds fall as crude stays firm
The chance of WTI hitting the August $70-low threshold dropped from 18.5% to 5.95% between August 12, 2026 and August 18, 2026, as near-term crude reporting stayed firmer. The specific catalyst for the move was not confirmed.
WTI $70-low August market plunges after crude firms into the $85 range
The chance that WTI would dip to $70 in August fell sharply over the last 24 hours, with the market moving as NY crude climbed into the $85 range in late trading coverage. The specific catalyst for the drop is not confirmed, but it appears consistent with firmer crude sentiment.
WTI $110 August odds fell as crude commentary stayed mixed and no single catalyst was confirmed
Odds on WTI reaching $110 in August slipped from 5.35% to 2.25% between August 12 and August 18, 2026. The move coincided with broader oil coverage on firmer crude, weak-demand concerns, and Middle East supply risk, but no single confirmed trigger was identified for this specific market.
Newly eligible
New finance markets
Finance
Latest movement explanations
Showing 100 of 100 matched markets.
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
Latest: The market repriced by +5.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
(LOW) $80 in August
62%
(HIGH) $90 in August
42%
(HIGH) $85 in August
35%
Largest 24h move
(LOW) $75 in August -9%
Volume
272.6K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
No
95%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
821K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
No
99%
Yes
1%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
556.3K
Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?
280M by September 25, 2026
55%
270M by September 25, 2026
50%
260M by September 25, 2026
42%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will gas hit __ by end of September?
$4.00 (Low) by September 30
54%
$4.20 (High) by September 30
54%
$4.30 (High) by September 30
51%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026
48%
Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026
48%
France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026
47%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?
between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30
37%
fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30
33%
between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30
22%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
PayPal be acquired before 2027
45%
MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027
35%
Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027
22%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?
Workhorse announce bankruptcy before 2027
23%
Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027
14%
Lucid announce bankruptcy before 2027
12%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
AI bubble burst in 2026?
No
88%
Yes
12%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Which CEOs will be out before 2027?
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027
8%
Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027
8%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027
8%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
No
94%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Elon Musk be richest person on December 31
95%
Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31
1%
Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
IPOs before 2027?
SHEIN IPO before 2027
99%
Anthropic IPO before 2027
91%
Discord IPO before 2027
27%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
No
87%
Yes
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?
No
89%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
OpenAI IPO by...?
December 31 2026
16%
September 30 2026
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
US recession by end of 2026?
No
92%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
Yes
85%
No
15%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Strava IPO Closing Market Cap
Strava's market cap be between $7B and $10B at market close on IPO day
30%
Strava's market cap be between $2B and $3B at market close on IPO day
28%
Strava's market cap be at least $15B at market close on IPO day
20%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Hylo launch a token by ___?
December 31, 2027
48%
December 31, 2026
10%
September 30, 2026
6%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
1.2m barrels per day in 2026
69%
1.3m barrels per day in 2026
17%
1.4m barrels per day in 2026
8%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
>$8,000 in December
37%
$7,500-$8,000 in December
22%
$7,000-$7,500 in December
19%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?
$7,400 (LOW) in December
73%
$7,200 (LOW) in December
63%
$7,000 (LOW) in December
61%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Perplexity IPO Closing Market Cap
Perplexity not IPO by December 31, 2027
64%
Perplexity's market cap be less than $20B at market close on IPO day
8%
Perplexity's market cap be between $50B and $75B at market close on IPO day
7%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$500M one day after launch
57%
$1B one day after launch
53%
$2B one day after launch
39%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Tabi FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$250M one day after launch
7%
$100M one day after launch
6%
$500M one day after launch
6%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Ventuals FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$100M one day after launch
3%
$300M one day after launch
3%
$800M one day after launch
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Opensea launch a token by ___?
December 31, 2026
18%
September 30, 2026
2%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Dreamcash launch a token by ___?
December 31, 2026
9%
September 30, 2026
2%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Ledger IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
$2B
24%
$1B
23%
$3B
16%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will USD/CAD hit __ in 2026?
1.30 (Low) in 2026
48%
1.25 (Low) in 2026
47%
1.33 (Low) in 2026
45%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
OpenAI's market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027
48%
OpenAI's market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027
17%
OpenAI's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027
17%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will USD/KRW hit __ in 2026?
1350 (Low) in 2026
57%
1300 (Low) in 2026
49%
1200 (Low) in 2026
43%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will GBP/USD hit __ in 2026?
1.30 (Low) in 2026
50%
1.40 (High) in 2026
41%
1.45 (High) in 2026
32%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will USD/JPY hit __ in 2026?
165 (High) in 2026
43%
150 (Low) in 2026
23%
140 (Low) in 2026
19%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?
1.20 (High) in 2026
37%
1.22 (High) in 2026
31%
1.10 (Low) in 2026
29%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
6.75% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026
83%
7.25% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026
49%
7.00% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026
47%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026
59%
SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026
42%
OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
$800B
83%
$1T
76%
$1.2T
65%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December
63%
hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December
14%
dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December
8%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Hurupay FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$10M one day after launch
11%
$5M one day after launch
10%
$20M one day after launch
8%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Amazon 2026 capex above ___?
$180B
96%
$190B
94%
$170B
89%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?
Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026
4%
Wells Fargo fail by end of 2026
4%
KeyBank fail by end of 2026
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What level will the Dubai Real Estate Index hit in 2026?
dip to 10,000 in 2026
52%
hit 14,000 in 2026
27%
dip to 8,000 in 2026
10%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Multipli.fi FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$50M one day after launch
99%
$20M one day after launch
97%
$100M one day after launch
84%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
Yes
76%
No
24%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?
No
95%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will USD/BRL hit __ in 2026?
5.5 (High) in 2026
53%
5.75 (High) in 2026
50%
4.25 (Low) in 2026
50%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will Anthropic's public ticker be?
$ANTH
19%
$ANT
16%
$AAI
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Anthropic IPO by __?
December 31, 2026
92%
October 31, 2026
83%
October 15, 2026
56%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?
Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering
62%
Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering
36%
JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day
20%
Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day
19%
Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day
19%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Oura IPO Closing Market Cap
Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day
30%
Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day
26%
Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day
14%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
How much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?
less than $30B in its IPO
31%
between $40B and $50B in its IPO
26%
between $80B and $90B in its IPO
21%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
between $1.25T and $1.5T
22%
between $1.75T and $2.0T
19%
between $1.5T and $1.75T
18%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Lead Bank in OpenAI's IPO?
Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering
76%
Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering
25%
Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will OpenAI's public ticker be?
$OAI
69%
$OPAI
18%
$CGPT
12%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by...?
December 31, 2027
52%
June 30, 2027
50%
December 31, 2026
22%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?
Meta
83%
OpenAI
18%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?
69%
OpenAI + Anthropic
31%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?
Anthropic + OpenAI
63%
Microsoft
37%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Stripe vs American Express - higher valuation on December 31?
American Express
86%
Stripe
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Epic Games vs Roblox - higher valuation on December 31?
Roblox
88%
Epic Games
13%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Anduril vs Lockheed Martin - higher valuation on December 31?
Lockheed Martin
60%
Anduril
41%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Databricks vs Stripe — higher valuation on December 31?
Databricks
81%
Stripe
19%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
Anthropic
90%
OpenAI
10%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Lambda's valuation hit __ by December 31?
(HIGH) $9B by December 31
96%
(HIGH) $10B by December 31
96%
(HIGH) $12.5B by December 31
76%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Kraken's valuation hit __ by December 31?
(LOW) $9B by December 31
42%
(HIGH) $12.5B by December 31
36%
(LOW) $8B by December 31
25%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Epic Games' valuation hit __ by December 31?
(LOW) $11.5B by December 31
61%
(LOW) $10B by December 31
51%
(HIGH) $13.5B by December 31
48%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Canva’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
(LOW) $40B by December 31
91%
(LOW) $37.5B by December 31
56%
(HIGH) $42.5B by December 31
45%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Perplexity's valuation hit __ by December 31?
(HIGH) $20B by December 31
59%
(HIGH) $22.5B by December 31
51%
(HIGH) $25B by December 31
35%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Neuralink’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
(HIGH) $50B by December 31
68%
(HIGH) $60B by December 31
50%
(LOW) $35B by December 31
28%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Anduril's valuation hit __ by December 31?
(HIGH) $110B by December 31
85%
(HIGH) $125B by December 31
68%
(HIGH) $175B by December 31
19%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?
(HIGH) $200B by December 31
88%
(HIGH) $225B by December 31
74%
(HIGH) $250B by December 31
15%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by December 31?
(HIGH) $200B by December 31
53%
(LOW) $160B by December 31
45%
(HIGH) $190B by December 31
40%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
(HIGH) $1.0T by December 31
68%
(HIGH) $1.25T by December 31
42%
(LOW) $800B by December 31
30%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
(HIGH) $1.25T by December 31
99%
(HIGH) $1.5T by December 31
93%
(HIGH) $1.75T by December 31
87%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Arc FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$800M one day after launch
72%
$500M one day after launch
68%
$1B one day after launch
63%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?
JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31
8%
Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31
2%
American Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
No
94%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Crude Oil all time high by...?
December 31
13%
September 30
2%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Stripe IPO Closing Market Cap
less than $150B at market close on IPO day
43%
between $350B and $400B at market close on IPO day
43%
at least $500B at market close on IPO day
43%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by December 31?
Yes
83%
No
18%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Glean's valuation hit __ by December 31?
(HIGH) $7.5B by December 31
72%
(LOW) $6B by December 31
51%
(LOW) $5.5B by December 31
47%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will ByteDance's valuation hit __ by December 31?
(HIGH) $650B by December 31
41%
(LOW) $500B by December 31
31%
(HIGH) $700B by December 31
30%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Databricks IPO Closing Market Cap
Databricks not IPO by December 31, 2027
64%
Databricks's market cap be between $400B and $450B at market close on IPO day
40%
Databricks's market cap be between $200B and $250B at market close on IPO day
37%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027
21%
Discord's market cap be $20B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027
12%
Discord's market cap be between $5B and $8B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027
11%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Discord IPO by __?
December 31, 2026
27%
November 30, 2026
20%
October 31, 2026
12%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Linera launch a token by ___?
September 30, 2027
80%
December 31, 2027
80%
June 30, 2027
74%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?
No
88%
Yes
13%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
MPS x Intesa Sanpaolo merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
Yes
63%
No
38%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
USD/JPY: Close Price End of 2026
between 150 and 160
37%
between 160 and 170
31%
between 140 and 150
27%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Nikkei 225: Close Price End of 2026
between 55,000 and 60,000
32%
between 60,000 and 65,000
27%
between 65,000 and 70,000
24%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
at least 3.0%
66%
between 2.8% and 3.0%
29%
between 2.6% and 2.8%
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
not return to normal in 2026
67%
return to normal in December
11%
return to normal in September
8%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
September 30
38%
August 31
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Tarsier Pharma IPO Closing Market Cap
Tarsier Pharma not IPO before September 2026
97%
Tarsier Pharma's market cap be between $300M and $350M at market close on IPO day
1%
Tarsier Pharma's market cap be between $400M and $450M at market close on IPO day
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0