Culture markets, explained
Culture
Culture market movers, recent explanations, and context for awards, entertainment, public figures, and attention-driven markets.
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Last 24 hours
Biggest recent shifts
Culture
Which KPop groups will release songs in 2026?
75.4%
75%
Largest mover: an outcome
Culture
Will Twice release a song in 2026?
75.4%
75%
55% → 75% in 24h
Culture
Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
52.5%
53%
Largest mover: an outcome
Culture
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?
52.5%
53%
34% → 53% in 24h
Context
Why these markets move
Culture markets can move on official nominations, release calendars, public appearances, social posts, and audience signals. PolySays flags when a move is social-driven rather than confirmed.
Signals to watch
- Official award and release calendars
- Verified public statements
- Audience, chart, and box-office signals
What changed recently
Recent reporting
Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? — probability rises to 42%
The tracked probability rose to 42%, up 10.0 percentage points from 32% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy… — probability rises to 52.5%
The tracked probability rose to 52.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 49% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy A… — probability rises to 49%
The tracked probability rose to 49%, up 5.0 percentage points from 44% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy A… — probability falls to 44%
The tracked probability fell to 44%, down 7.5 percentage points from 51.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy A… — probability rises to 49%
The tracked probability rose to 49%, up 5.0 percentage points from 44% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy A… — probability falls to 45%
The tracked probability fell to 45%, down 9.0 percentage points from 54% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Newly eligible
New culture markets
"Clayface" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
42% 42.0% · Data ready
Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
42% 42.0% · Data ready
# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? (Higher Brackets)
96.2% 96.2% · Data ready
Will MrBeast's next video get 200 million or more views on week 1?
0.1% 0.1% · Data ready
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 150 million views on week 1?
96.2% 96.2% · Data ready
Which KPop groups will release songs in 2026?
75.4% 75.4% · Data ready
Culture
Markets worth watching
Showing 33 of 33 matched markets.
The filter applies to this curated selection.
Search all coverage →Culture
Which KPop groups will release songs in 2026?
Will Twice release a song in 2026?
75%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$131.7
Latest: Probability moved from 63.8% to 75.45% (+11.65 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 44 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 15:01:00 UTC to 2026-10-20 15:16:44 UTC.
Culture
Will Twice release a song in 2026?
Yes
75%
No
25%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$131.7
Culture
Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?
53%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$100
Latest: Probability moved from 49% to 52.5% (+3.5 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Culture
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?
Yes
53%
No
48%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$100
Culture
Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 31
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?
77%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$2.5K
Latest: Probability moved from 80.5% to 77.5% (-3 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 02:00:28 UTC to 2026-10-21 02:17:52 UTC.
Culture
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?
Yes
77%
No
24%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$2.5K
Culture
Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?
61%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$168.6
Latest: Probability moved from 63.6% to 58.95% (-4.65 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 55 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 21:19:32 UTC to 2026-10-20 21:33:27 UTC.
Culture
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?
Yes
61%
No
39%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$168.6
Culture
Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
11%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$549.7
Latest: Probability moved from 20.3% to 16.1% (-4.2 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 20 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 13:15:37 UTC to 2026-10-20 13:32:57 UTC.
Culture
Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
Yes
11%
No
89%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$549.7
Culture
"Clayface" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
42%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$160.3
Latest: Probability moved from 32% to 42% (+10 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Culture
Will "Clayface" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
Yes
42%
No
58%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$160.3
Culture
Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?
53%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$80.7
Latest: Probability moved from 61% to 51% (-10 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 8 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 02:46:22 UTC to 2026-10-21 03:02:30 UTC.
Culture
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch?
Yes
53%
No
47%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$80.7
Culture
# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? (Higher Brackets)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 150 million views on week 1?
96%
Will MrBeast's next video get 200 million or more views on week 1?
0%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$13K
Latest: Probability moved from 89.5% to 92.95% (+3.45 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 46 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 22:15:54 UTC to 2026-10-20 22:30:39 UTC.
Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 150 million views on week 1?
Yes
96%
No
4%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$6.7K
Culture
Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations
Will Inde Navarrette be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
83%
Will Anne Hathaway be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
4%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$248.5
Latest: Probability moved from 71.5% to 77.5% (+6 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 25 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 08:30:12 UTC to 2026-10-20 08:45:38 UTC.
Culture
Will Inde Navarrette be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
Yes
83%
No
18%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$248.5
Culture
Oscars 2027: Best Animated Short Film Nominations
Will "Please" be nominated for Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
47%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$37.9
Latest: Probability moved from 52% to 45.5% (-6.5 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 18 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 05:32:51 UTC to 2026-10-20 05:47:09 UTC.
Culture
Will "Please" be nominated for Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
Yes
47%
No
53%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$37.9
Culture
Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
Will "Pragmata" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?
1%
Will "Valheim" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?
1%
Will "The Blood of Dawnwalker" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?
1%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$139.6
Latest: Probability moved from 10.55% to 0.55% (-10 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 35 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 02:30:47 UTC to 2026-10-21 02:46:22 UTC.
Culture
Will "Pragmata" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$46.5
Culture
Oscars 2027: Best International Feature Film Nominations
Will "All of a Sudden" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
96%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$13.7
Latest: Probability moved from 84% to 92% (+8 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 21 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 03:47:17 UTC to 2026-10-20 04:01:38 UTC.
Culture
Will "All of a Sudden" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
Yes
96%
No
4%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$13.7
Culture
# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 120 million views on week 1?
99%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$173
Latest: Probability moved from 95.5% to 98.9% (+3.4 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 40 seconds apart: 2026-10-18 02:45:22 UTC to 2026-10-18 03:01:03 UTC.
Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 120 million views on week 1?
Yes
99%
No
1%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$173
Culture
Will MrBeast's next video get 200 million or more views on week 1?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$6.2K
Culture
Taylor Swift monthly listeners hits __ by October 31?
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 107m by October 31?
3%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$20.1
Latest: Probability moved from 21.75% to 10.85% (-10.9 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 30 seconds apart: 2026-10-17 13:02:57 UTC to 2026-10-17 13:16:27 UTC.
Culture
Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 107m by October 31?
Yes
3%
No
97%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$20.1
Culture
Will Anne Hathaway be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
Yes
4%
No
96%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$958.2
Culture
Will "Valheim" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$46.5
Culture
Will "The Blood of Dawnwalker" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$46.5
Culture
Will "Onimusha: Way of the Sword" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards?
Yes
1%
No
100%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$126