Culture markets, explained
Culture
Culture market movers, recent explanations, and context for awards, entertainment, public figures, and attention-driven markets.
Moving now
Biggest recent shifts
Elon Musk # tweets August 21 - August 28, 2026?
180-199 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026 54%
Will MoistCr1TiKaL get a haircut in 2026?
No 53%
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?
No 75%
Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
Dua Lipa perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show 26%
Why these markets move
Culture markets can move on official nominations, release calendars, public appearances, social posts, and audience signals. PolySays flags when a move is social-driven rather than confirmed.
Signals to watch
- Official award and release calendars
- Verified public statements
- Audience, chart, and box-office signals
What changed recently
Recent market explanations
Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 in Elon Musk # tweets: Yes odds 30.5% → 0.4%
Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 moved lower from 30.5% to 0.4% (-30.1 points) between 2026-08-18T23:03:05.440Z and 2026-08-19T23:33:05.470Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 in Elon Musk # tweets: Yes odds 4.2% → 32.6%
Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 moved higher from 4.2% to 32.6% (+28.5 points) between 2026-08-18T23:33:05.470Z and 2026-08-19T23:33:05.470Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 in Elon Musk # tweets: Yes odds 0.9% → 27.5%
Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 moved higher from 0.9% to 27.5% (+26.6 points) between 2026-08-18T23:03:05.441Z and 2026-08-19T23:33:05.470Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 in Elon Musk # tweets: Yes odds 0.3% → 17.4%
Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 moved higher from 0.3% to 17.4% (+17.1 points) between 2026-08-18T23:03:05.441Z and 2026-08-19T23:33:05.470Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 in Elon Musk # tweets: Yes odds 0.1% → 7.1%
Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 moved higher from 0.1% to 7.1% (+7.0 points) between 2026-08-18T23:33:05.471Z and 2026-08-19T23:33:05.471Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 in Elon Musk # tweets: Yes odds 14% → 1.1%
Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 moved lower from 14.0% to 1.1% (-12.8 points) between 2026-08-17T23:03:05.440Z and 2026-08-18T23:03:05.440Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Newly eligible
New culture markets
Culture
Latest movement explanations
Showing 100 of 100 matched markets.
Taylor Swift pregnant by...?
Latest: The Yes outcome weakened sharply, falling 8.0 points as wedding coverage for Swift and Kelce hit the news cycle. No source here confirms a pregnancy, so the odds move appears tied to adjacent celebrity-news attention rather than a verified event on the market question itself.
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027
15%
September 30
2%
Largest 24h move
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027 -1%
Volume
0
Elon Musk # tweets August 21 - August 28, 2026?
180-199 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026
54%
200-219 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026
21%
160-179 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026
15%
Largest 24h move
180-199 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026 +47%
Volume
831.6K
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?
No
75%
Yes
25%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
57.4K
Will MoistCr1TiKaL get a haircut in 2026?
No
53%
Yes
48%
Leader 24h
-2%
Volume
42.1
What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (August 31 - September 6)
Trump" be in the headlines this week
97%
AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be in the headlines this week
97%
Oil," "Gas," or "Gasoline" be in the headlines this week
85%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Anna Wintour Attends Which NY Fashion Week Shows?
Ralph Lauren
50%
Diane von Furstenberg
50%
Michael Kors Collection
50%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
between 940m and 950m by September 30
45%
between 950m and 960m by September 30
45%
at least 970m by September 30
38%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
"The Dog Stars" Opening Weekend Box Office
between 10m and 11m
40%
between 9m and 10m
40%
between 8m and 9m
36%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week?
15 million views this week
57%
18 million views this week
49%
20 million views this week
49%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
How many views will the #1 Show on Netflix have this week?
7 million views this week
51%
12 million views this week
50%
11 million views this week
50%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Outer Banks: Season 5
49%
Beauty in Black: Season 3
49%
Tires: Season 3
48%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will be the top US Netflix show this week?
Tires: Season 3
32%
Danny Go!: Season 2
26%
Conversations with a Killer: The Charles Manson Tapes: Season 1
25%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week?
Outer Banks: Season 5
43%
Beauty in Black: Season 3
43%
My Brilliant Career: Season 1
41%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will be the top global Netflix show this week?
Beauty in Black: Season 3
50%
Outer Banks: Season 5
50%
My Brilliant Career: Season 1
47%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
Facing El Chapo
44%
The Whisper Man (2026)
43%
The Last House
25%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
The Whisper Man (2026)
46%
The Last House
45%
Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look
27%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
Untold: The Testimony of Vince Young
49%
The Whisper Man (2026)
49%
Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look
49%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?
The Whisper Man (2026)
57%
The Last House
43%
Don't Say Good Luck
42%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
# of views of MrBeast video day 6?
between 65.0 and 65.5 million views on day 6
27%
between 65.5 and 66.0 million views on day 6
27%
between 66.5 and 67.0 million views on day 6
27%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will anyone drop an Emmy on stage?
No
95%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Jack Doherty Prison Time?
no prison time
93%
at least 5 years in prison
3%
less than 2 years in prison
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
No
92%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
2026
74%
2026
23%
2026
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026
51%
Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026
51%
Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
93%
Avengers: Doomsday
8%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?
No
87%
Yes
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Which artists will release a new song in 2026?
JAY-Z release a new song in 2026
85%
Frank Ocean release a new song in 2026
32%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Obama divorce before 2027?
No
98%
Yes
2%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child?
No
95%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
How many albums will reach Billboard #1 in 2026?
at least 25 albums be ranked #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026
96%
between 22 and 24 albums be ranked #1 on the Billboard 200 in 2026
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?
December 31, 2027
68%
June 30, 2027
54%
December 31, 2026
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?
Mariah Carey have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
81%
Kendrick Lamar have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
45%
The Weeknd have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026
28%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Billboard #1 Artist 2026
Morgan Wallen
85%
Post Malone
3%
Olivia Rodrigo
2%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?
March 31, 2027
6%
December 31
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?
Avengers: Doomsday
97%
Dune 3
3%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Cardi B and Stefon Diggs get engaged in 2026?
No
67%
Yes
33%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Which artists will release new albums in 2026?
Jay Z release an album in 2026
60%
Lana Del Rey release an album in 2026
56%
Travis Scott release an album in 2026
54%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Top Spotify Artist 2026
Bad Bunny
88%
Drake
5%
Taylor Swift
5%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
No
65%
Yes
35%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027?
No
81%
Yes
19%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026?
No
90%
Yes
10%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Kanye West and Bianca Censori separate in 2026?
No
87%
Yes
13%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026?
No
82%
Yes
18%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Kylie Jenner confirmed pregnant in 2026?
No
66%
Yes
35%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?
No
71%
Yes
30%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Bachelorette Season 22 Winner
another contestant
89%
Doug Mason
9%
Casey Hux
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
People's Sexiest Man Alive 2026
Bad Bunny be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026
25%
Connor Storrie be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026
11%
Michael B. Jordan be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026
10%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Love Wins: 2026 Edition
No
54%
Yes
46%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Megan Thee Stallion and Klay Thompson engaged in 2026?
No
79%
Yes
21%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Ángela Aguilar & Christian Nodal split in 2026?
No
54%
Yes
47%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Which KPop groups will release songs in 2026?
NewJeans release a song in 2026
54%
Twice release a song in 2026
43%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards
87%
Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards
6%
Project Hail Mary get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?
No
58%
Yes
42%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Luigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Paris Hilton pregnant in 2026?
No
60%
Yes
40%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Diddy released from custody in 2026?
No
80%
Yes
20%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
D4vd released from custody in 2026?
No
93%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Who will be cast on Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?
Rob Rausch be cast in Dancing With the Stars: Season 35
51%
Ashtin Earle be cast in Dancing With the Stars: Season 35
50%
Miranda McWhorter be cast in Dancing With the Stars: Season 35
48%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Who will win Dancing with the Stars: Season 35?
Ciara Miller
50%
Maura Higgins
50%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Zoe Kravitz and Harry Styles engaged by August 31?
Yes
95%
No
5%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Hailey Bieber pregnant in 2026?
No
52%
Yes
48%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Zohran Mamdani release another song?
No
76%
Yes
25%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Alix Earle on Call Her Daddy by December 31?
No
52%
Yes
48%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026
57%
Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026
42%
Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening week in 2026
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Taylor Swift release "Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version)" in 2026?
No
53%
Yes
48%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Who will win Big Brother Argentina 2026?
Solange "Sol" Abraham
49%
Danelik Galazan
49%
Emanuel Di Gioia
49%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine
94%
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man
93%
Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange
85%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which nicotine pouch brands will be bought by Big Tobacco?
Juice Head nicotine pouches
44%
Sesh nicotine pouches
42%
Fre nicotine pouches
14%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?
No
90%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Clavicular sentenced to prison?
No
90%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Which 2026 movies will make it into the IMDb Top 250?
Dune: Messiah" make it into the IMDb Top 250
81%
Avengers: Doomsday" make it into the IMDb Top 250
41%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
When will Project Helix be released?
December 31, 2026
42%
May 31, 2027
21%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Junior Eurovision Winner 2026
Ukraine
23%
Cyprus
19%
France
19%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Who will be the top-selling artist by total auction sales in 2026?
Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026
45%
Jean-Michel Basquiat be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026
3%
Andy Warhol be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?
No
69%
Yes
32%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Amanda Batula and West Wilson breakup before 2027?
No
56%
Yes
44%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
Dua Lipa perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show
26%
Justin Bieber perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show
24%
Olivia Rodrigo perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show
19%
Largest 24h move
Dua Lipa perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show +1%
Volume
0
Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations
Matt Damon be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards
96%
Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards
70%
Andrew Scott be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards
68%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations
The Odyssey" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards
97%
Project Hail Mary" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards
84%
Dune: Part Three" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards
81%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Top Spotify Album 2026
Debí Tirar Más Fotos
79%
Arirang - BTS
11%
You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo
6%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
GTA VI released by...?
November 30
91%
October 31
2%
September 30
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will the Salvator Mundi be publicly exhibited by December 31?
No
91%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
TIME Person of the Year 2026
Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026
34%
Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026
15%
Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026
13%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Eurovision 2027 Participants
Canada participate in Eurovision 2027
98%
Germany participate in Eurovision 2027
97%
Israel participate in Eurovision 2027
90%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026
62%
Ethiopia have an Ebola case in 2026
50%
Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026
38%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Next James Bond actor?
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond
23%
No one announced as next James Bond
20%
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond
19%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Who will die in The Witcher: Season 5?
Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5
86%
Yennefer of Vengerberg die during "The Witcher: Season 5
84%
Vilgefortz die during "The Witcher: Season 5
70%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Who will perform at Coachella 2027?
BLACKPINK perform at Coachella 2027
51%
Dua Lipa perform at Coachella 2027
48%
Justin Bieber perform at Coachella 2027
48%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Vatican III in 2026?
No
91%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Carly Rae Jepsen 'Day and Night' First Week Album Sales?
Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be less than 30k
56%
Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be between 30k and 40k
30%
Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be between 40k and 50k
9%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?
No
80%
Yes
21%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Next CEO of JPMorgan Chase?
Marianne Lake
50%
Troy Rohrbaugh
19%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Pauline Hanson wear a burqa again in 2026?
No
79%
Yes
21%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Dua Lipa pregnant in 2026?
No
90%
Yes
10%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Kevin O'Leary's Utah Data Center project break ground in 2026?
No
85%
Yes
15%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Valve officially release Deadlock before 2027?
Yes
67%
No
33%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
#3 Spotify Artist 2026
Taylor Swift
71%
Drake
16%
Bad Bunny
5%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
#2 Spotify Artist 2026
Drake
73%
Taylor Swift
16%
Bad Bunny
10%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will the 2027 Pro Football Championship be headlined by a woman?
No
55%
Yes
46%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a