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- Current leader
- December 31, 2027 68%
- Largest 24h move
- March 31, 2027 +21%
- 24h volume
- 5
- Liquidity
- 4.1K
Top candidates
4 outcomes
December 31, 2027
68%
-2% 24h
June 30, 2027
51%
0% 24h
March 31, 2027
30%
+21% 24h
December 31, 2026
17%
+5% 24h
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Story so far
Needs a refreshKraken IPO Yes odds first rose from 24% to 27% on July 18, 2026, then slipped to 23.5% by July 19, 2026. The latest move overlaps reporting that Kraken's SPAC raised $345M and that an IPO may be under consideration, but the causal link remains unconfirmed.
No major update has changed the story in 41 days.
Latest update
Kraken IPO jumps: Yes odds 18.5% → 31%
Yes moved higher from 18.5% to 31.0% (+12.5 points) between 2026-07-22T08:00:07.449Z and 2026-07-23T08:00:07.449Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- A report said Kraken's SPAC raised $345M.
- The same reporting suggested Kraken may be planning or weighing its own IPO.
- The move is consistent with short-term reversal in the prior price trend.
- CLOB price history shows a 3.5-point Yes decline over roughly 24 hours.
Unresolved questions
- Whether the SPAC funding report actually drove the latest odds decline.
- Whether Kraken will pursue an IPO by December 31, 2026.
- Whether other news or market flow influenced the move.
People and institutions to watch
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Yes" outcome in "Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?" made a sharp move from 18.5% to 31.0% between 2026-07-22T08:00:07.449Z and 2026-07-23T08:00:07.449Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by +12.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
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