US x Russia military clash by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- December 31, 2026 6%
- Largest 24h move
- December 31, 2026 -0%
- 24h volume
- 994
- Liquidity
- 72.5K
Top candidates
2 outcomes
December 31, 2026
6%
-0% 24h
June 30, 2026
0%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
Read the complete resolution rules
Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest December 31, 2026 probability of 6%.
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