By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president.
Current leader
16.4%
16%
12 outcomes
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5%
+0.1 pp
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3%
+0.1 pp
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
0.0 pp
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
+0.1 pp
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
0.0 pp
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
0.0 pp
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
+0.1 pp
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
VolumeMonitoring onlyProbability remained at 14.75%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $672.3834 to $1,790.6434. The cause is not established.
Yes: 15% → 15%
0.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedProbability remained at 14.75%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $672.3834 to $1,790.6434. The cause is not established.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability remained at 14.75% (0 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:47:59.199Z to 2026-10-21T06:19:22.060Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 14.75% → 14.75%
Probability remained at 14.75% (0 percentage points). Observations were 31 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 05:47:59 UTC to 2026-10-21 06:19:22 UTC. The move also met PolySays' high-volume-shock threshold. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $672.3834 to $1,790.6434.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability remained at 2.05% (0 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T22:31:28.518Z to 2026-10-18T22:47:47.662Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability remained at 14.05% (0 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T21:45:55.501Z to 2026-10-18T22:01:04.360Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability remained at 1.95% (0 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T20:45:05.129Z to 2026-10-18T21:02:11.064Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability remained at 1.15% (0 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T20:31:57.845Z to 2026-10-18T20:45:05.129Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability remained at 7.15% (0 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T19:18:01.755Z to 2026-10-18T19:31:14.451Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability remained at 14.15% (0 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T16:15:48.319Z to 2026-10-18T16:31:46.109Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 16.25% to 16.1% (-0.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T15:45:28.392Z to 2026-10-18T16:01:46.960Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — probability holds at 14.75%
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