activeElectionsGavin Newsom +0% 24h

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president.

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Current leader
Gavin Newsom 20%
Largest 24h move
Gavin Newsom +0%
24h volume
1.5M
Liquidity
70.2M

Top candidates

45 outcomes

Gavin Newsom

20%

+0% 24h

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

15%

+0% 24h

Jon Ossoff

12%

0% 24h

Kamala Harris

7%

-0% 24h

Josh Shapiro

5%

-0% 24h

Show all outcomes

Pete Buttigieg

4%

0%

Jon Stewart

3%

0%

Andy Beshear

2%

-0%

Ro Khanna

2%

-0%

Rahm Emanuel

2%

-0%

Wes Moore

1%

0%

James Talarico

1%

0%

Michelle Obama

1%

0%

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

1%

0%

Mark Kelly

1%

0%

Stephen A. Smith

1%

-0%

Mark Cuban

1%

0%

J.B. Pritzker

1%

0%

Chelsea Clinton

1%

0%

Roy Cooper

1%

0%

Cory Booker

1%

0%

Chris Murphy

1%

0%

Gretchen Whitmer

1%

0%

Oprah Winfrey

1%

0%

Gina Raimondo

1%

0%

Barack Obama

1%

0%

Jared Polis

1%

0%

Jasmine Crockett

1%

0%

Hillary Clinton

1%

0%

Raphael Warnock

1%

0%

George Clooney

1%

0%

Bernie Sanders

1%

-0%

Liz Cheney

1%

-0%

Andrew Yang

1%

0%

John Fetterman

1%

0%

Kim Kardashian

1%

0%

Ruben Gallego

1%

-0%

Phil Murphy

1%

0%

Hunter Biden

1%

0%

MrBeast

1%

0%

Tim Walz

0%

0%

Beto O'Rourke

0%

0%

Zohran Mamdani

0%

-0%

LeBron James

0%

0%

Graham Platner

0%

-0%

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Living timeline · 7 significant updates

AOC’s 2028 Democratic nominee odds rose 3.1 points over 24 hours

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Odds chart showing latest Gavin Newsom probability of 20%.

Story so far

Needs a refresh

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s 2028 Democratic nominee odds rose over the last 24 hours, with Polymarket’s yes price moving from 13.65% on July 6 to 16.75% on July 7, 2026. The supplied sources point to renewed 2028 primary coverage, but they do not establish a single confirmed driver.

No major update has changed the story in 7 days.

Latest update

AOC’s 2028 Democratic nominee odds rose 3.1 points over 24 hours

Polymarket’s yes price for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez moved from 13.65% to 16.75% between July 6 and July 7, 2026. The supplied sources show renewed 2028 primary coverage, but they do not confirm a single cause for the move.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • Polymarket-reported market movement was the immediate signal behind the price change.
  • Renewed 2028 primary coverage may have contributed, though the supplied sources do not confirm one cause.

Unresolved questions

  • Whether the odds move reflects a durable shift or only short-lived attention.
  • Which specific news or polling items, if any, were most responsible for the surge.
  • Whether later market activity confirms the increase or reverses it.

People and institutions to watch

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez2028 Democratic nominee marketPolymarket

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s yes probability in the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee market increased by 3.1 points in a 24-hour window, from 13.65% to 16.75%. The move was recorded from 2026-07-06T23:30:05.199Z to 2026-07-07T23:30:05.199Z, alongside a sharp increase in reported volume. The available source set is only partially explanatory: it includes fresh coverage of the 2028 Democratic primary and a prediction-market-focused article, which may have coincided with the shift. However, nothing in the supplied material establishes a confirmed news catalyst, so the relationship should be treated as correlation, not proven causation.

    What changed

    The market price for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s 2028 Democratic nomination yes share rose from 13.65% to 16.75%, a +3.1 point move over the stated 24-hour window.

    What to watch next

    Watch whether the higher level holds into the next trading day and whether new polling or primary coverage appears alongside more volume; the supplied sources do not yet confirm a durable driver.

    Sources