Tech markets, explained
Tech
Technology market movers, recent explanations, and context for product launches, AI labs, platform policy, space, and big-tech milestones.
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Last 24 hours
Biggest recent shifts
Tech
OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
3%
3%
Largest mover: an outcome
Tech
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of October 2026?
3%
3%
54% → 3% in 24h
Tech
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?
91.1%
91%
Largest mover: an outcome
Tech
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?
32.5%
33%
71% → 33% in 24h
Context
Why these markets move
Tech markets often move on product announcements, launch windows, regulatory news, platform changes, and executive statements. Rumor-heavy cycles need explicit confidence labels.
Signals to watch
- Official launch and release notes
- Regulatory or court updates
- Reliable reporting that confirms product timelines
What changed recently
Recent reporting
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability falls to 19.85%
The tracked probability fell to 19.85%, down 8.6 percentage points from 28.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 32.5%
The tracked probability fell to 32.5%, down 21.0 percentage points from 53.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Next [link omitted] GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 24%
The tracked probability fell to 24%, down 20.5 percentage points from 44.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 98.65%
Probability moved from 99.35% to 98.65%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $935.2608 to $11,839.4938. The cause is not established.
Next [link omitted] GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 43%
The tracked probability rose to 43%, up 5.0 percentage points from 38% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Next [link omitted] GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 38%
The tracked probability fell to 38%, down 11.5 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Newly eligible
New tech markets
OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
3% 3.0% · Data ready
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of October 2026?
3% 3.0% · Data ready
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?
91.1% 91.1% · Data ready
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?
91.1% 91.1% · Data ready
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?
32.5% 32.5% · Data ready
# of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1?
95.9% 95.9% · Data ready
Tech
Markets worth watching
Showing 18 of 18 matched markets.
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# of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1?
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?
96%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$64.5K
Latest: Probability moved from 83.9% to 87.15% (+3.25 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 2 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 03:47:54 UTC to 2026-10-21 04:02:56 UTC.
Tech
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?
Yes
96%
No
4%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$64.5K
Tech
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?
24%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$366
Latest: Probability moved from 44.5% to 24% (-20.5 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 30 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 05:30:29 UTC to 2026-10-21 05:47:59 UTC.
Tech
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?
Yes
24%
No
76%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$366
Tech
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?
91%
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?
33%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$1.2K
Latest: Probability moved from 53.5% to 32.5% (-21 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Tech
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?
Yes
33%
No
68%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.1K
Tech
#3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?
66%
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?
20%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$558.8
Latest: Probability moved from 28.5% to 19.85% (-8.65 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.
Tech
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?
Yes
20%
No
80%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$103.9
Tech
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?
Yes
91%
No
9%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$21
Tech
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?
Yes
66%
No
34%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$454.9
Tech
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by...?
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026?
6%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$40
Latest: Probability moved from 5.5% to 8.5% (+3 percentage points). Observations were 29 minutes 44 seconds apart: 2026-10-16 17:46:22 UTC to 2026-10-16 18:16:07 UTC.
Tech
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026?
Yes
6%
No
94%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$40
Tech
Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?
95%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$32.6
Latest: Probability moved from 90.5% to 92.5% (+2 percentage points). Observations were 37 minutes 12 seconds apart: 2026-10-15 00:59:43 UTC to 2026-10-15 01:36:55 UTC.
Tech
Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?
Yes
95%
No
6%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$32.6
Tech
Will CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above __?
Will CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above $360M?
77%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 77.5% to 73% (-4.5 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 24 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 01:16:29 UTC to 2026-10-21 01:30:53 UTC.
Tech
Will CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above $360M?
Yes
77%
No
23%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$545.1
Tech
OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of October 2026?
3%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$1.6K
Tech
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of October 2026?
Yes
3%
No
97%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.6K