Tech markets, explained
Tech
Technology market movers, recent explanations, and context for product launches, AI labs, platform policy, space, and big-tech milestones.
Moving now
Biggest recent shifts
Why these markets move
Tech markets often move on product announcements, launch windows, regulatory news, platform changes, and executive statements. Rumor-heavy cycles need explicit confidence labels.
Signals to watch
- Official launch and release notes
- Regulatory or court updates
- Reliable reporting that confirms product timelines
What changed recently
Recent market explanations
OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026 in OpenAI launch a: Yes odds 27% → 21.5%
OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026 moved lower from 27.0% to 21.5% (-5.5 points) between 2026-07-23T03:00:06.000Z and 2026-07-24T03:30:05.920Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
OpenAI consumer hardware market jumps 6 points over 24 hours
Polymarket’s Yes price for an OpenAI consumer hardware launch by October 31, 2026 rose from 21% to 27% between July 21 and July 22, 2026. The move appears to have tracked continued hardware-related coverage, but the supplied material does not confirm a launch announcement.
OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026 in OpenAI launch a: Yes odds 39% → 24%
OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026 moved lower from 39.0% to 24.0% (-15.0 points) between 2026-07-22T06:00:05.780Z and 2026-07-22T13:30:07.006Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026 in OpenAI launch a: Yes odds 30% → 25%
OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026 moved lower from 30.0% to 25.0% (-5.0 points) between 2026-07-22T06:30:05.910Z and 2026-07-22T07:00:06.356Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026 in OpenAI launch a: Yes odds 20.5% → 39%
OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by October 31, 2026 moved higher from 20.5% to 39.0% (+18.5 points) between 2026-07-20T16:00:06.153Z and 2026-07-22T06:00:05.780Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026 in OpenAI launch a: Yes odds 55.5% → 35%
OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026 moved lower from 55.5% to 35.0% (-20.5 points) between 2026-07-20T13:00:10.000Z and 2026-07-21T13:30:05.772Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Newly eligible
New tech markets
Tech
Latest movement explanations
Showing 100 of 100 matched markets.
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
Latest: The market repriced by -5.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
December 31, 2026
11%
October 31, 2026
8%
Largest 24h move
October 31, 2026 -2%
Volume
291.4
GPT-6 released by…?
December 31, 2026
63%
November 30, 2026
60%
October 31, 2026
43%
Largest 24h move
September 30, 2026 -4%
Volume
124.1
#1 Searched Athlete on Google 2026?
Alysa Liu
17%
Lamine Yamal
7%
Kylian Mbappé
7%
Largest 24h move
Arch Manning +4%
Volume
40
Z.ai's GLM-5.3-Flash Model: Text Arena Debut?
1470 by December 31, 2026
39%
1480 by December 31, 2026
17%
1490 by December 31, 2026
12%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
How many SpaceX launches in September 2026?
fewer than 12 launches in September 2026
41%
exactly 13 launches in September 2026
38%
exactly 12 launches in September 2026
38%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in September 2026?
exactly 1 ChatGPT outage in September 2026
22%
exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026
20%
5 or more ChatGPT outages in September 2026
19%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Claude go down on __ days in September?
8-10 times in September
34%
11-13 times in September
27%
5-7 times in September
24%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Elon Musk Net Worth on September 30?
between $900B and $1.00T on September 30
28%
at least $1.10T on September 30
28%
between $700B and $800B on September 30
28%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will Elon post this week? (August 31 - September 6)
Tesla" on X this week
90%
Video game" or "Videogame" on X this week
47%
Texas" on X this week
47%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will Dell say during their next earnings call?
Dell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 20+ times during earnings call
95%
Dell say "Quarter" 20+ times during earnings call
90%
Dell say "Nvidia" during earnings call
82%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
# of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look on day 1?
less than 40 million views on day 1
32%
between 50 and 60 million views on day 1
19%
between 40 and 50 million views on day 1
18%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Yes
89%
No
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Anthropic acquired before 2027?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
No
81%
Yes
20%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
No
61%
Yes
40%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
No
86%
Yes
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
No
86%
Yes
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
No
76%
Yes
24%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
between 140-159 launches in 2026
71%
between 160-179 launches in 2026
19%
between 120-139 launches in 2026
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
1520 by December 31
49%
1550 by December 31
11%
1540 by December 31
9%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
No
72%
Yes
28%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
No
89%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Gemini 4.0 released by...?
November 30, 2026
87%
October 31, 2026
76%
September 15, 2026
40%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?
Yes
97%
No
3%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
No
74%
Yes
27%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026
56%
5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026
37%
more than 16 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026
2%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
No
76%
Yes
24%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
No
90%
Yes
10%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
No
87%
Yes
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026
85%
Anthropic
14%
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Elon Bull Run Parlay
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)
Anthropic's market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027
94%
Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027
2%
Anthropic's market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
3rd richest person on December 31?
Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on December 31
44%
Jensen Huang be 3rd richest person on December 31
37%
Mark Zuckerberg be 3rd richest person on December 31
36%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
December 31, 2027
44%
June 30, 2027
32%
February 28, 2027
23%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What kind of product will OpenAI announce in 2026?
a clip-on device for clothing in 2026
18%
a necklace-style wearable in 2026
11%
glasses in 2026
9%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?
Yes
63%
No
38%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
Anthropic's market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027
86%
Anthropic's market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027
9%
Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
No
92%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
AWS service disrupted by...?
September 30
51%
August 31
49%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Yes
81%
No
20%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026
28%
Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026
17%
xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026
13%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?
1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026
36%
1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026
25%
1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026
13%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?
1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026
72%
1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026
28%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026
11%
1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026
4%
1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
one of the top 3 AI models by December 31
37%
the best AI model by December 31
11%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?
Up
86%
Down
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?
October 31, 2026
96%
September 30, 2026
92%
September 15, 2026
87%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by...?
September 30
52%
August 31
50%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026
69%
OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026
11%
Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026
10%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?
October 31, 2026
54%
September 30, 2026
29%
September 15, 2026
9%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?
No
82%
Yes
19%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?
No
90%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31?
No
92%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Another GTA VI trailer released by...?
September 30
62%
August 31
45%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
1480
84%
1490
74%
1495
62%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
AI data center in space by...?
2027
18%
2026
2%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by December 31?
No
90%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Which flavors will JUUL relaunch in 2026?
Mint flavor by 2027
52%
Fruit Medley flavor by 2027
51%
Cucumber flavor by 2027
49%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7?
No
88%
Yes
13%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by December 31?
Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026
18%
ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026
10%
Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by December 31, 2026
9%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Next Claude Haiku released by...?
December 31, 2026
65%
October 31, 2026
62%
August 31, 2026
6%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Next Claude Sonnet released by...?
December 31, 2026
83%
October 31, 2026
56%
August 31, 2026
35%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by December 31?
75% by December 31
78%
80% by December 31
47%
85% by December 31
13%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Another Elon baby by December 31?
No
55%
Yes
46%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?
No
83%
Yes
17%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?
No
58%
Yes
42%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
JIO Platforms IPO by...?
December 31, 2026
67%
September 30, 2026
27%
August 31, 2026
15%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Largest Indian Company at end of 2026?
Reliance Industries Ltd
86%
Bajaj Finance Ltd
8%
HDFC Bank Ltd
7%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
16-19 cities on December 31 2026
48%
12-15 cities on December 31 2026
42%
20-23 cities on December 31 2026
7%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?
Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026
83%
Tampa, FL by December 31 2026
80%
San Diego, CA by December 31 2026
79%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
CopperTech Metals IPO Closing Market Cap
not IPO before September 2026
98%
market cap be between $4.8B and $5.4B at market close on IPO day
1%
market cap be between $4.2B and $4.8B at market close on IPO day
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
How much will the iPhone 18 Pro cost?
$1100
98%
$1000
98%
$1200
78%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
GTA VI: PS5 Launch Price
$60
97%
$70
95%
$80
9%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…?
June 30, 2027
77%
December 31, 2026
26%
August 31, 2026
2%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?
2027
61%
2026
7%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
New MAI thinking model released by...?
December 31, 2026
48%
September 30, 2026
26%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
GPU rental prices (B200) hit___ in 2026?
$5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026
92%
$5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026
78%
$4.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026
52%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
GPU rental prices (H200) hit___ in 2026?
$4.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026
87%
$3.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026
56%
$3.75 (LOW) by December 31, 2026
54%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Grok 5 released by...?
December 31, 2026
71%
November 30, 2026
49%
October 31, 2026
39%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
GPU rental prices (H100) hit___ in 2026?
$2.25 (LOW) by December 31, 2026
70%
$3.50 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026
61%
$2.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026
53%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
GPU rental prices (B200) end of 2026?
between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026
22%
between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026
19%
between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026
14%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
GPU rental prices (H200) end of 2026?
between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026
20%
between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026
15%
between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026
12%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
GPU rental prices (H100) end of 2026?
between $2.50 and $3.00 on December 31, 2026
28%
between $2.00 and $2.50 on December 31, 2026
16%
between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026
14%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
Yes
68%
No
32%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?
No
88%
Yes
13%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
No
83%
Yes
17%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
#1 Searched Actor on Google 2026?
Inde Navarrette
28%
Tom Holland
19%
Zendaya
14%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
#1 Searched Passing on Google 2026?
Dolly Parton
35%
Oliver Tree
13%
Chuck Norris
9%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
#1 Searched Person on Google 2026?
Bad Bunny
13%
Donald Trump
9%
Lionel Messi
7%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of August?
Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026
97%
ByteDance have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026
2%
MiniMax have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which company has #1 AI model end of August? (Style Control On)
Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026
98%
Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026
1%
Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of August 2026
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of August?
Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026
97%
OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026
1%
Google have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Best Chinese AI Company end of August?
Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026
95%
Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026
5%
Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of August?
Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026
95%
OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026
1%
Alibaba have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of August?
OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026
96%
Ideogram have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026
5%
Meta have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026
2%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Largest Company end of August?
NVIDIA
100%
Apple
0%
Alphabet
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
2nd Largest Company end of August?
Apple
96%
Alphabet
2%
NVIDIA
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
3rd Largest Company end of August?
Alphabet
97%
Apple
1%
Microsoft
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0