Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?
You can read more about that here: This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1.
- Current leader
- No 95%
- Leader 24h
- 0%
- Volume
- 60.6K
- Liquidity
- 17K
Top outcomes
2 outcomes
No
95%
0% 24h
Yes
6%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
You can read more about that here: This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1.
Resolves No
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe. The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe.
Read the complete resolution rules
The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Probability over time
Odds chart showing latest No probability of 95%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline