Will any country leave NATO by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- December 31, 2026 4%
- Largest 24h move
- December 31, 2026 +0%
- 24h volume
- 0
- Liquidity
- 65.2K
Top candidates
2 outcomes
December 31, 2026
4%
+0% 24h
June 30, 2026
0%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest December 31, 2026 probability of 4%.
Story so far
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Why this matters
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Known catalysts
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Unresolved questions
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People and institutions to watch
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Source trail
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Living timeline