This market will resolve to "Yes" if Felix Protocol officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Current leader
16.9%
17%
1 outcome
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 15.5%, down 14.2 percentage points from 29.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 30% → 16%
-14.2 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 15.5%, down 14.2 percentage points from 29.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 29.7% to 15.5% (-14.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T08:17:01.588Z to 2026-10-19T08:32:19.962Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 29.7% → 15.5%
Probability moved from 29.7% to 15.5% (-14.2 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 18 seconds apart: 2026-10-19 08:17:01 UTC to 2026-10-19 08:32:19 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 24% to 30.1% (+6.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T01:47:04.748Z to 2026-10-19T02:01:14.578Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 15.45% to 24.9% (+9.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T20:45:05.129Z to 2026-10-18T21:02:11.064Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 27.95% to 14% (-13.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T09:17:01.834Z to 2026-10-18T09:30:44.383Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 23.5% to 27.6% (+4.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T07:16:47.535Z to 2026-10-18T07:31:27.906Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 28.25% to 23.5% (-4.75 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T07:01:53.244Z to 2026-10-18T07:16:47.535Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 23.5% to 28.2% (+4.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T04:00:57.770Z to 2026-10-18T04:16:45.326Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 28.05% to 23.5% (-4.55 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T03:01:03.291Z to 2026-10-18T03:15:32.630Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Felix Protocol officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Felix Protocol, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? — probability falls to 15.5%
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