Politics markets, explained
Politics
Political market movers, recent explanations, and context for legislation, courts, executive actions, polling, and public statements.
Moving now
Biggest recent shifts
Who will Bernie endorse?
Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET 45%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
December 31, 2026 31%
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election 74%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
No 95%
Why these markets move
Political markets often move on official filings, votes, court orders, agency action, and public statements. PolySays keeps the source trail visible so readers can distinguish reporting from speculation.
Signals to watch
- Votes, hearings, and court deadlines
- Official filings and agency statements
- Polling and public-position changes
What changed recently
Recent market explanations
October 31, 2026 in NATO x Russia military clash by market jumps: Yes odds 12.5% → 39.5%
October 31, 2026 moved higher from 12.5% to 39.5% (+27.0 points) between 2026-08-19T20:03:05.713Z and 2026-08-20T20:03:05.713Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
August 31, 2026 in NATO x Russia military clash by market jumps: Yes odds 2.6% → 36.5%
August 31, 2026 moved higher from 2.6% to 36.5% (+33.9 points) between 2026-08-19T20:03:05.713Z and 2026-08-20T20:03:05.713Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
December 31, 2026 in NATO x Russia military clash by market jumps: Yes odds 23% → 47%
December 31, 2026 moved higher from 23.0% to 47.0% (+24.0 points) between 2026-08-19T20:03:05.713Z and 2026-08-20T20:03:05.713Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 in Elon Musk # tweets: Yes odds 30.5% → 0.4%
Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 moved lower from 30.5% to 0.4% (-30.1 points) between 2026-08-18T23:03:05.440Z and 2026-08-19T23:33:05.470Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 in Elon Musk # tweets: Yes odds 4.2% → 32.6%
Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 moved higher from 4.2% to 32.6% (+28.5 points) between 2026-08-18T23:33:05.470Z and 2026-08-19T23:33:05.470Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 in Elon Musk # tweets: Yes odds 0.9% → 27.5%
Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026 moved higher from 0.9% to 27.5% (+26.6 points) between 2026-08-18T23:03:05.441Z and 2026-08-19T23:33:05.470Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Newly eligible
New politics markets
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Odds, News &...
No 97.9% · Sourced timeline
Spain snap election called by...?: Odds, News &...
No 98.3% · Sourced timeline
Harvey Weinstein prison time?: Odds, News & Timeline
Yes 98.0% · Sourced timeline
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?: Odds,...
Yes 99.2% · Sourced timeline
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?: Odds,...
No 94.5% · Sourced timeline
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Odds,...
Yes 50.5% · Sourced timeline
Politics
Latest movement explanations
Showing 100 of 100 matched markets.
Spain snap election called by August 31, 2026?
Latest: The market repriced by +5.8 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
No
98%
Yes
2%
Leader 24h
+2%
Volume
372
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Latest: J.D. Vance’s implied odds fell from 41.55% to 38.0%, a 3.55-point drop, over the stated 24-hour window.
J.D. Vance
47%
Marco Rubio
23%
Tucker Carlson
3%
Largest 24h move
Marco Rubio -1%
Volume
1.3M
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by...?
Latest: The market repriced by -35.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
December 31
12%
September 30
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No
88%
Yes
13%
Leader 24h
+3%
Volume
2.3M
Brazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
62%
Flávio Bolsonaro
35%
Renan Santos
3%
Largest 24h move
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva -1%
Volume
2.1M
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
No
95%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
1.1M
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election
74%
New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election
19%
the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election
6%
Largest 24h move
New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election +5%
Volume
789.6K
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
83.4K
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?
No
98%
Yes
2%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
48.8K
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
No
95%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
+4%
Volume
8.4K
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
December 31, 2026
31%
October 31, 2026
10%
Largest 24h move
December 31, 2026 +6%
Volume
349.8
Who will Bernie endorse?
Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET
45%
James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET
38%
Zach Wahls for IA-Sen Nov 2 2026 ET
3%
Largest 24h move
Dan Osborn for NE-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET -8%
Volume
13.2
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by October 31?
No
89%
Yes
12%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Who will Trump speak to in September?
Xi Jinping in September
95%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September
85%
Andy Burnham in September
84%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Who will Trump meet with in September?
Xi Jinping in September 2026
95%
Andy Burnham in September 2026
82%
Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2026
76%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Trump meets with Mark Carney by...?
September 15, 2026
32%
August 31, 2026
9%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney by...?
September 7, 2026
48%
August 31, 2026
44%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Who will Trump publicly praise in September?
Dana White in September
53%
Benjamin Netanyahu in September
50%
Elon Musk in September
50%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What companies will Trump mention in September?
Boeing" in September
70%
TikTok" or "ByteDance" in September
47%
Walmart" in September
46%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will Trump post this week? (August 31 - September 6)
China" on Truth Social this week
91%
Communist" or "Communism" on Truth Social this week
83%
Crime" on Truth Social this week
82%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will Trump say in September?
Who Are You With" or "Where Are You From" in September
72%
Through the Roof" in September
70%
American Dream" in September
70%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
What will Trump say this week? (August 31 - September 6)
Tremendous" this week
90%
Transgender" this week
85%
God" this week
72%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Yes
51%
No
50%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
D Senate, D House
49%
R Senate, D House
38%
R Senate, R House
12%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
No
94%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Another Canada election called by December 31, 2026?
No
95%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
No
93%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027
13%
Jon Stewart announce a Presidential run before 2027
10%
Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027
10%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31?
No
76%
Yes
25%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Epstein client list released by...?
October 31
20%
December 31, 2026
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Roger Stone before 2027
35%
Donald Brodie before 2027
26%
Ryan Salame before 2027
23%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?
No
80%
Yes
20%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
No
92%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Iran Nuke before 2027?
No
95%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No
93%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
No
90%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
Switzerland before 2027
1%
China before 2027
1%
US before 2027
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
Canada" before 2027
19%
India" before 2027
18%
Israel" before 2027
17%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Trump out as President before 2027?
No
94%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31 2026
8%
September 30 2026
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Russell Vought leave the Trump administration before 2027
38%
Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027
27%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027
26%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin Salman in 2026
75%
Vladimir Putin in 2026
51%
Kim Jong Un in 2026
32%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
400-500k people
61%
300-400k people
16%
500-600k people
9%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
No
94%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Weed rescheduled by...?
September 30
50%
December 31
17%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 31
28%
September 30
7%
August 31
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
No
88%
Yes
12%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
US congress stock trading ban before 2027?
No
93%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Peak US National Debt before 2027?
$41 trillion before 2027
55%
$42 trillion before 2027
12%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
No
94%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
No
86%
Yes
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027?
No
91%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?
No
76%
Yes
25%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?
No
88%
Yes
12%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
No
88%
Yes
13%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?
No
93%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027
17%
Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027
9%
Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027
8%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Obama federally charged before 2027?
No
91%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Fed abolished before 2027?
No
98%
Yes
2%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
No
95%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
No
84%
Yes
17%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
35% in 2026
26%
30% in 2026
6%
25% in 2026
5%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
No
86%
Yes
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
Italy recognize Palestine before 2027
18%
Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027
17%
New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027
12%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?
1-100 Gold Cards in 2026
80%
over 100k Gold Cards in 2026
6%
1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
Ireland in 2026
99%
Germany in 2026
39%
Japan in 2026
27%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
No
98%
Yes
2%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?
December 31
41%
September 30
16%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
Yes
83%
No
17%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Argentina dollarize by December 31, 2026?
No
94%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?
No
85%
Yes
15%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?
No
94%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
No
72%
Yes
28%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
No
89%
Yes
12%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
No
86%
Yes
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Lecornu out as French PM by...?
December 31, 2026
28%
September 30, 2026
1%
August 31, 2026
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Maine Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
95%
the Republicans
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Georgia Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
59%
the Republicans
40%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Florida Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
80%
the Democrats
21%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Connecticut Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
96%
the Republicans
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Arkansas Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
97%
the Democrats
2%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Alabama Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
94%
the Democrats
6%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
No
67%
Yes
33%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
Yes
93%
No
7%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff
98%
Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff
91%
Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
No
91%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
French election called by December 31, 2026?
No
96%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Macron out by December 31, 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
No
93%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Yes
96%
No
4%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?
No
98%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
Yes
54%
No
46%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Eric Adams charged by December 31?
No
74%
Yes
27%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Blue tsunami in 2026?
No
56%
Yes
44%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
3.75% at the end of 2026
35%
4.0% at the end of 2026
31%
4.25% at the end of 2026
13%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?
No
84%
Yes
17%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?
No
91%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
No
94%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
United Russia
33%
United Russia
25%
United Russia
19%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0