Politics

Largest mover: an outcome

Politics

Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm?

98.9%

99%

67% → 99% in 24h

Politics

Khamenei # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

92.9%

93%

Largest mover: an outcome

Politics

Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?

92.9%

93%

83% → 93% in 24h

Context

Why these markets move

Political markets often move on official filings, votes, court orders, agency action, and public statements. PolySays keeps the source trail visible so readers can distinguish reporting from speculation.

Signals to watch

Votes, hearings, and court deadlines
Official filings and agency statements
Polling and public-position changes

What changed recently

Recent reporting

All updates

Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability rises to 98.9%

The tracked probability rose to 98.9%, up 26.6 percentage points from 72.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

Will Trump say "Veteran" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina? — probability rises to 100%

The tracked probability rose to 100%, up 10.4 percentage points from 89.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability rises to 72.3%

The tracked probability rose to 72.3%, up 8.1 percentage points from 64.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

PlungeOct 21

Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability falls to 64.2%

The tracked probability fell to 64.2%, down 8.1 percentage points from 72.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

PlungeOct 21

Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability falls to 60.5%

The tracked probability fell to 60.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability rises to 72.25%

The tracked probability rose to 72.25%, up 10.4 percentage points from 61.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

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New politics markets

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Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?

98.9% 98.9% · Data ready

Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm?

98.9% 98.9% · Data ready

Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027?

52.5% 52.5% · Data ready

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

52.5% 52.5% · Data ready

Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?

5.9% 5.9% · Data ready

Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?

5.9% 5.9% · Data ready

Politics

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Politics

Closes Sep 14

Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?

Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm?

99%

Largest 24h move

24h volume

$304.4

Latest: Probability moved from 72.3% to 98.9% (+26.6 percentage points). Observations were 2 hours 25 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 07:04:50 UTC to 2026-10-21 09:30:13 UTC.

Politics

Closes Sep 14

Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm?

Yes

99%

Leader 24h

24h volume

$304.4

Politics

Closes Oct 23

Khamenei # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?

Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?

93%

Largest 24h move

24h volume

$773.4

Latest: Probability moved from 96.4% to 92.3% (-4.1 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 00:15:37 UTC to 2026-10-21 00:33:00 UTC.

Politics

Closes Oct 23

Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026?

Yes

93%

Leader 24h

24h volume

$773.4

Politics

Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026?

63%

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mike Rogers by October 31, 2026?

Largest 24h move

+1.0 pp

24h volume

$91.8

Latest: Probability moved from 54.5% to 63% (+8.5 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes 45 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 04:02:56 UTC to 2026-10-21 04:20:41 UTC.

Politics

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026?

Yes

63%

37%

Leader 24h

+1.0 pp

24h volume

$91.8

Politics

Closes Jul 1

What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?

Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027?

53%

Largest 24h move

+10.0 pp

24h volume

$196.2

Latest: Probability moved from 61% to 53% (-8 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 30 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 03:17:32 UTC to 2026-10-21 03:32:02 UTC.

Politics

Closes Jul 1

Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027?

Yes

53%

48%

Leader 24h

+10.0 pp

24h volume

$196.2

Politics

What will Trump say in October?

Will Trump say "Six Seven" in October?

46%

Largest 24h move

-8.0 pp

24h volume

$14.3

Latest: Probability moved from 51% to 46.5% (-4.5 percentage points). Observations were 16 minutes 7 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 17:01:46 UTC to 2026-10-20 17:17:53 UTC. The stated rules end at 2026-11-01 03:59:00 UTC, 11 days 10 hours 41 minutes 6 seconds after the last observation. Timing alone does not explain the move.

Politics