Politics markets, explained
Politics
Political market movers, recent explanations, and context for legislation, courts, executive actions, polling, and public statements.
Moving now
Biggest recent shifts
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff 88%
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026 86%
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Donald Brodie before 2027 52%
Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner
Julia Letlow 83%
Why these markets move
Political markets often move on official filings, votes, court orders, agency action, and public statements. PolySays keeps the source trail visible so readers can distinguish reporting from speculation.
Signals to watch
- Votes, hearings, and court deadlines
- Official filings and agency statements
- Polling and public-position changes
What changed recently
Recent market explanations
Kostyantynivka July 19 capture odds plunge from 21% to 6% in 24 hours
Polymarket’s Yes price for Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19 fell from 21% to 6% between July 14 and July 15, 2026. A Google News item noted a resolution-map disagreement, but the driver of the move is not confirmed.
Kostyantynivka July 19 capture odds plunge after a 24-hour slide
Polymarket’s Yes price for Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19 fell sharply over roughly 24 hours, dropping from 42% to 6% between July 14 and July 15. A Google News-linked item mentioned a resolution-map disagreement, but that does not confirm what caused the move.
Kostyantynivka July 19 capture odds fall sharply over 24 hours
The Yes price for Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 19 fell from 13% to 5.5% between July 14 and July 15, a 7.5-point drop. The only matched article mentions a resolution-map disagreement, but that does not confirm what drove the move.
Putin-exit odds slip to 16.5% for June 30, 2027 market
Polymarket’s June 30, 2027 Putin exit contract fell from 19.5% to 16.5% over the 24-hour window from July 14 to July 15, 2026, while related nearby-dated Putin-exit markets also sat lower.
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Yes moved higher from 3.2% to 9.0% (+5.8 points) between 2026-07-14T10:00:04.789Z and 2026-07-15T10:00:04.789Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Kostyantynivka August 31 market drops 4.5 points in 24 hours
Polymarket’s Yes price for Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31 fell from 75.0% to 70.5% between July 14 and July 15, 2026. A Google News-linked Action Network item flagged a resolution map disagreement, but it does not confirm the price move’s cause.
Politics
Latest news for active markets
Showing 100 of 100 matched markets.
Spain snap election called by...?
Latest: The market repriced by +5.8 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
August 31, 2026
9%
June 30, 2026
1%
Largest 24h move
August 31, 2026 +6%
Volume
1.7K
Harvey Weinstein prison time?
Latest: The market repriced by +5.3 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
no prison time
94%
less than 5 years in prison
1%
between 5 and 10 years in prison
1%
Largest 24h move
no prison time -2%
Volume
4.4K
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
Latest: The market repriced by -6.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
No
95%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
+4%
Volume
8.4K
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
Latest: Yes odds for the December 31, 2026 market increased by 3.0 points, from 6.5% to 9.5%, over roughly two days.
December 31, 2026
6%
June 30, 2026
0%
Largest 24h move
December 31, 2026 -1%
Volume
34.6K
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Latest: Democratic Senate-control odds increased from 0.415 to 0.445, a +0.030 move, during the period from 2026-07-02T00:00:11.000Z to 2026-07-03T08:35:05.339Z.
the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections
57%
the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections
45%
Largest 24h move
the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections 0%
Volume
223.5K
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Latest: J.D. Vance’s implied odds fell from 41.55% to 38.0%, a 3.55-point drop, over the stated 24-hour window.
J.D. Vance
42%
Marco Rubio
27%
Tucker Carlson
3%
Largest 24h move
Marco Rubio -1%
Volume
1.5M
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Latest: The market repriced by +5.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027
66%
Russell Vought leave the Trump administration before 2027
50%
Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027
49%
Largest 24h move
David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027 +9%
Volume
5.9K
Louisiana Republican Senate Primary Winner
Latest: Fleming’s Polymarket price moved from 7.2% to 13.25%, a 6.05-point surge in the 24 hours from June 23, 2026 19:22:26 UTC to June 24, 2026 19:22:26 UTC.
Julia Letlow
83%
John Fleming
13%
Xan John
0%
Largest 24h move
Julia Letlow -9%
Volume
31.5K
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Latest: The market repriced by -40.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
Donald Brodie before 2027
52%
Daniel Penny before 2027
52%
Matt Gaetz before 2027
50%
Largest 24h move
Daniel Penny before 2027 -10%
Volume
2.2K
Weed rescheduled by...?
Latest: The market repriced by -7.9 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
December 31
26%
July 31
3%
Largest 24h move
December 31 -8%
Volume
1.2K
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Latest: The market repriced by +18.2 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026
86%
Mohammed bin Salman in 2026
72%
Vladimir Putin in 2026
44%
Largest 24h move
iShowSpeed in 2026 +18%
Volume
26.4K
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
Latest: The market repriced by -6.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
India" before 2027
28%
United Kingdom" before 2027
24%
Taiwan" before 2027
20%
Largest 24h move
South Korea" before 2027 -7%
Volume
681.9
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Latest: The market repriced by +10.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027
26%
Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027
22%
J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027
17%
Largest 24h move
Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2027 -4%
Volume
1.1K
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027?
Latest: The market repriced by +8.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
No
82%
Yes
19%
Leader 24h
-8%
Volume
485.8
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Latest: The market repriced by -18.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff
88%
Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff
71%
Romeu Zema qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff
42%
Largest 24h move
Ronaldo Caiado qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff -18%
Volume
527.5
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
2.8M
Brazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
57%
Flávio Bolsonaro
23%
Renan Santos
13%
Largest 24h move
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva +4%
Volume
843K
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
No
95%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
498.4K
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Keiko Fujimori
99%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
0%
Rafael López Aliaga
0%
Largest 24h move
Keiko Fujimori -0%
Volume
455.2K
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?
No
79%
Yes
22%
Leader 24h
-1%
Volume
270K
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?
No
92%
Yes
9%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
253.9K
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro
79%
Delcy Rodríguez
14%
María Corina Machado
4%
Largest 24h move
Nicolás Maduro +2%
Volume
134.2K
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?
No
99%
Yes
1%
Leader 24h
-0%
Volume
127.6K
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
No
56%
Yes
45%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
100.2K
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
No
84%
Yes
16%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
96.5K
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30?
No
98%
Yes
2%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
85.5K
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
10%
Donald Trump
8%
UNRWA
7%
Largest 24h move
UNRWA -5%
Volume
79.7K
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
-0%
Volume
70K
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?
No
95%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
60.6K
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?
No
89%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
58.8K
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
D Senate, D House
43%
R Senate, D House
40%
R Senate, R House
13%
Largest 24h move
R Senate, R House -3%
Volume
55.1K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No
87%
Yes
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
35.6K
Blue tsunami in 2026?
No
56%
Yes
44%
Leader 24h
-3%
Volume
29.8K
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
No
87%
Yes
13%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
28.8K
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
28.3K
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?
No
90%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
28.1K
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
No
92%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
-0%
Volume
27.3K
Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?
No
90%
Yes
10%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
26.9K
Which party will win the House in 2026?
the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections
84%
the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections
16%
Largest 24h move
the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections -1%
Volume
26.4K
SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?
Yes
88%
No
12%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
21.8K
Will Trump resign before 2027?
No
98%
Yes
2%
Leader 24h
+2%
Volume
20.9K
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?
No
87%
Yes
13%
Leader 24h
-0%
Volume
19.1K
Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?
No
90%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
18.6K
US congress stock trading ban before 2027?
No
89%
Yes
12%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
18.3K
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?
No
99%
Yes
1%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
17.2K
Will Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
No
93%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
15.9K
Trump out as President before 2027?
No
91%
Yes
10%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
15.6K
US defaults on debt by 2027?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
15.5K
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
No
85%
Yes
16%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
15.2K
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
13.4K
Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026?
No
90%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
12K
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
No
83%
Yes
18%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
11.3K
Macron out by...?
July 31, 2026
1%
June 30, 2026
0%
Largest 24h move
July 31, 2026 -4%
Volume
11.1K
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 31
55%
June 30
1%
Largest 24h move
December 31 +3%
Volume
9.3K
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?
No
85%
Yes
15%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
7.2K
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
No
81%
Yes
20%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
6.4K
Fed abolished before 2027?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
5.3K
Iran Nuke before 2027?
No
94%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
5.1K
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
No
90%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
-2%
Volume
5.1K
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31, 2026?
No
85%
Yes
16%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
5K
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
No
95%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
4K
Los Angeles Mayoral Election
Karen Bass
62%
Nithya Raman
37%
Adam Miller
0%
Largest 24h move
Nithya Raman -0%
Volume
4K
Will Tim Walz resign by...?
December 31, 2026
8%
June 30
0%
Largest 24h move
June 30 -0%
Volume
3K
Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Yes
87%
No
14%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
2.8K
Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
Yes
87%
No
13%
Leader 24h
-1%
Volume
2.6K
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
No
70%
Yes
31%
Leader 24h
+8%
Volume
2.4K
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027
22%
Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027
18%
Jordan join the Abraham Accords before 2027
16%
Largest 24h move
Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027 +5%
Volume
2.4K
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
not meet before 2027
81%
meet next in US before 2027
3%
meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027
3%
Largest 24h move
meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027 -0%
Volume
2.3K
Insurrection Act invoked by...?
December 31
18%
June 30
1%
Largest 24h move
June 30 -0%
Volume
2.1K
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?
December 31
12%
June 30
1%
Largest 24h move
December 31 +1%
Volume
1.5K
How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
United Russia
34%
United Russia
33%
United Russia
13%
Largest 24h move
United Russia +2%
Volume
1.5K
Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?
No
76%
Yes
24%
Leader 24h
-1%
Volume
1.5K
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
No
96%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
1.1K
CA-03 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
93%
the Republican Party
6%
Largest 24h move
the Democratic Party +4%
Volume
1.1K
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
No
90%
Yes
10%
Leader 24h
+2%
Volume
1.1K
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
838.4
Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?
No
63%
Yes
38%
Leader 24h
+3%
Volume
836.1
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
27%
exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
18%
exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
16%
Largest 24h move
exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections +1%
Volume
812.6
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
December 31, 2026
41%
July 31, 2026
2%
Largest 24h move
December 31, 2026 +6%
Volume
805.8
Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31 2026
10%
September 30 2026
5%
Largest 24h move
September 30 2026 +0%
Volume
737.1
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
627.2
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
No
96%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
611.1
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?
No
89%
Yes
12%
Leader 24h
+4%
Volume
556.9
Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027?
No
92%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
+2%
Volume
506
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
No
77%
Yes
23%
Leader 24h
-2%
Volume
489.2
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
No
93%
Yes
7%
Leader 24h
-0%
Volume
468.8
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
No
90%
Yes
10%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
464.9
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
No
80%
Yes
21%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
419.8
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
No
100%
Yes
0%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
387.7
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...?
September 30
20%
July 31
9%
Largest 24h move
July 31 +1%
Volume
375.2
Maduro Prison Time?
no prison time
34%
at least 60 years in prison
25%
between 20 and 40 years in prison
19%
Largest 24h move
between 20 and 40 years in prison +5%
Volume
325
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
Yes
56%
No
44%
Leader 24h
+2%
Volume
320.2
AL-02 House Election Winner
the Republican Party
73%
the Democratic Party
23%
Largest 24h move
the Democratic Party -3%
Volume
291.8
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
No
85%
Yes
15%
Leader 24h
-1%
Volume
287.7
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
+1%
Volume
271.5
How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
35% in 2026
33%
30% in 2026
8%
25% in 2026
7%
Largest 24h move
35% in 2026 +1%
Volume
250.7
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?
No
99%
Yes
2%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
250
Oklahoma Democratic Senate Primary Winner
N'Kiyla "Jasmine" Thomas
91%
Jim Priest
7%
Rebekah LaVann
1%
Largest 24h move
Jim Priest -0%
Volume
243.5
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
No
86%
Yes
14%
Leader 24h
-2%
Volume
218.1
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
No
94%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
-0%
Volume
212.9