Election markets, explained
Elections
Live election market movers, recent timeline explanations, and durable context for races where polling, turnout, and official calendars can move prices.
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Last 24 hours
Biggest recent shifts
Elections
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
16.4%
16%
Largest mover: an outcome
Elections
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
16.4%
16%
15% → 16% in 24h
Elections
Presidential Election Winner 2028
20.1%
20%
Largest mover: an outcome
Elections
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
8.5%
9%
9% → 9% in 24h
Context
Why these markets move
Election markets often react to polling, ballot access, debates, court rulings, fundraising, turnout signals, and official certification milestones. PolySays separates confirmed public catalysts from unexplained repricing.
Signals to watch
- Polling and turnout releases
- Court and ballot-access deadlines
- Debates, primaries, and certification dates
What changed recently
Recent reporting
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — probability holds at 14.75%
Probability remained at 14.75%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $672.3834 to $1,790.6434. The cause is not established.
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — probability rises to 2.1%
Probability moved from 1.45% to 2.1%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $178.3945 to $20,630.2177. The cause is not established.
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? — probability holds at 20.05%
Probability remained at 20.05%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $3,231.7007 to $6,865.2307. The cause is not established.
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — probability holds at 2.05%
Probability remained at 2.05%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $3,048.3033 to $149,069.5962. The cause is not established.
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026? — probability rises to 16%
The tracked probability rose to 16%, up 4.0 percentage points from 12% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — probability holds at 14.05%
Probability remained at 14.05%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $6,335.3653 to $23,335.3653. The cause is not established.
Newly eligible
New elections markets
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?
14.5% 14.5% · Sourced timeline
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?
14.5% 14.5% · Data ready
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
16.4% 16.4% · Sourced timeline
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
16.4% 16.4% · Data ready
Presidential Election Winner 2028
20.1% 20.1% · Sourced timeline
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
8.5% 8.5% · Data ready
Elections
Markets worth watching
Showing 80 of 80 matched markets.
The filter applies to this curated selection.
Search all coverage →Elections
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
16%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
16%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
15%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$510.9K
Latest: Probability remained at 14.75% (0 percentage points). Observations were 31 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 05:47:59 UTC to 2026-10-21 06:19:22 UTC. The move also met PolySays' high-volume-shock threshold. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $672.3834 to $1,790.6434.
Elections
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
16%
No
84%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$4.3K
Elections
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
20%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
13%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
9%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$244.1K
Latest: Probability moved from 1.45% to 2.1% (+0.65 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 39 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 21:47:40 UTC to 2026-10-20 22:02:18 UTC. The move also met PolySays' high-volume-shock threshold. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $178.3945 to $20,630.2177.
Elections
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
9%
No
92%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$7.6K
Elections
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
16%
No
84%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$13.7K
Elections
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
2%
No
98%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$22.9K
Elections
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
7%
No
93%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$5.4K
Elections
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
4%
No
96%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$3.2K
Elections
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$23K
Elections
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$6.4K
Elections
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.7K
Elections
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
3%
No
97%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$280.7
Elections
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
13%
No
87%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$43.1K
Elections
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$38.9K
Elections
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$27.4K
Elections
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$25.8K
Elections
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$19.9K
Elections
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
15%
No
85%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.8K
Elections
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
2%
No
98%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$135.9K
Elections
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
9%
No
91%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$13.6K
Elections
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
3%
No
97%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.8K
Elections
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
2%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$679.5
Elections
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
5%
No
95%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$508.4
Elections
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$56.7
Elections
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$12.5M
Elections
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$177.1K
Elections
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$94.7K
Elections
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$11.1K
Elections
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$10K
Elections
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$5K
Elections
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$9K
Elections
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$5.9K
Elections
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$722.7
Elections
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$5K
Elections
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$3K
Elections
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
20%
No
80%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$2.8K
Elections
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
3%
No
97%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$3.9K
Elections
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
2%
No
98%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$3.6K
Elections
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$3.5K
Elections
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$3.4K
Elections
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$2.6K
Elections
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$2.2K
Elections
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$2.2K
Elections
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
2%
No
98%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$2.1K
Elections
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.1K
Elections
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.1K
Elections
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.1K
Elections
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1K
Elections
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1.1K
Elections
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$786.3
Elections
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$592.4
Elections
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$719.9
Elections
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$686.1
Elections
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
6%
No
94%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$411.4
Elections
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$116.7
Elections
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$144.1
Elections
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$78.9
Elections
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$68.6
Elections
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$46.1
Elections
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$43.5
Elections
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$36.4
Elections
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
2%
No
98%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$32.5
Elections
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
3%
No
97%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$10.7
Elections
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$8.2
Elections
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$3.7
Elections
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$2.6
Elections
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$2.6
Elections
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$2
Elections
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$1
Elections
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$54.4M
Elections
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$42.8M
Elections
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
24h volume
$6.3
Elections
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$38.7M
Elections
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$8.5M
Elections
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$26.4M
Elections
Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$945.1K
Elections
Will Tim Scott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
0%
No
100%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$393.1K
Elections
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes
1%
No
99%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$8.6M
Elections
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?
14%
Largest 24h move
24h volume
$0
Latest: Probability moved from 12% to 16% (+4 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 50 seconds apart: 2026-10-18 22:16:38 UTC to 2026-10-18 22:31:28 UTC.
Elections
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?
Yes
14%
No
86%
Leader 24h
Total volume
$9.6K