Election markets, explained
Elections
Live election market movers, recent timeline explanations, and durable context for races where polling, turnout, and official calendars can move prices.
Moving now
Biggest recent shifts
Why these markets move
Election markets often react to polling, ballot access, debates, court rulings, fundraising, turnout signals, and official certification milestones. PolySays separates confirmed public catalysts from unexplained repricing.
Signals to watch
- Polling and turnout releases
- Court and ballot-access deadlines
- Debates, primaries, and certification dates
What changed recently
Recent market explanations
Donalds stays near-certain as Florida GOP primary closes in
Byron Donalds remained at 99.2% in the Florida governor Republican nominee market as the primary neared, with no odds change during the reported window. Coverage the same day focused on his campaign momentum and the race’s final stretch.
Spain snap election called rises: Yes odds 3.2% → 9%
Yes moved higher from 3.2% to 9.0% (+5.8 points) between 2026-07-14T10:00:04.789Z and 2026-07-15T10:00:04.789Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
AOC’s 2028 Democratic nominee odds rose 3.1 points over 24 hours
Polymarket’s yes price for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez moved from 13.65% to 16.75% between July 6 and July 7, 2026. The supplied sources show renewed 2028 primary coverage, but they do not confirm a single cause for the move.
Jon Ossoff’s 2028 Democratic nominee odds rose 4.55 points in 24 hours
Jon Ossoff’s Polymarket yes price moved from 10.45% to 15.0% between July 6 and July 7, 2026, a 4.55-point increase. The supplied sources note renewed 2028 Democratic nominee coverage, but do not confirm a single driver.
AOC’s 2028 Democratic nominee odds rose 3 points over the last 24 hours
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s yes price moved from 12.55% to 15.6% between July 6 and July 7, a 3.05-point increase. The move coincided with fresh 2028 primary coverage and polling links, but the supplied sources do not confirm a single cause.
Democratic Senate-control odds rise 3 points over the latest 24 hours
Polymarket’s Democratic Senate-control contract moved from 41.5% to 44.5% between July 2 and July 3, 2026. The supplied news items point to active Senate coverage and polling, but they do not confirm a single catalyst for the shift.
Newly eligible
New elections markets
Elections
Latest movement explanations
Showing 100 of 100 matched markets.
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
56%
Benjamin Netanyahu
27%
Naftali Bennett
8%
Largest 24h move
Gadi Eizenkot -2%
Volume
176.6K
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen
33%
Édouard Philippe
25%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
15%
Largest 24h move
François Hollande +0%
Volume
62.2K
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
the Democrats
57%
the Republicans
41%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?
No
97%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Alaska Governor Election Winner
Bernadette Wilson
36%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
31%
Tom Begich
18%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola
62%
Dan Sullivan
39%
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
70%
an independent
30%
the Democrats
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
Yes
93%
No
8%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Ohio Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
55%
the Republicans
45%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Florida Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
92%
the Democrats
9%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Mississippi Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
94%
the Democrats
7%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Wyoming Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
96%
the Democrats
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
West Virginia Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
96%
the Democrats
2%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
No
51%
Yes
50%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Tennessee Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
97%
the Democrats
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
South Dakota Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
96%
Brian Bengs
1%
the Democrats
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
86%
the Democrats
14%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Oregon Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
96%
the Republicans
2%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
North Carolina Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
92%
the Republicans
9%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
New Mexico Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
96%
the Republicans
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
88%
the Republicans
13%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Montana Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
93%
an independent
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Minnesota Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
91%
the Republicans
9%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Michigan Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
64%
the Republicans
38%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Maine Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
71%
the Republicans
31%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Kentucky Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
97%
the Democrats
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Kansas Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
80%
the Democrats
20%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Iowa Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
61%
the Democrats
41%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Idaho Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
96%
the Democrats
2%
Todd Achilles
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
No
94%
Yes
6%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Arkansas Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
94%
the Democrats
5%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
81%
the Republicans
20%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Vermont Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
86%
the Democrats
12%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Tennessee Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
96%
the Democrats
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
South Dakota Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
95%
the Democrats
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
South Carolina Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
94%
the Democrats
6%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Rhode Island Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
97%
the Republicans
2%
an independent
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Pennsylvania Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
96%
the Republicans
5%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?
No
87%
Yes
14%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?
Yes
96%
No
5%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Ohio Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
54%
the Republicans
47%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
New York Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
95%
the Republicans
5%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
New Mexico Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
93%
the Republicans
5%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
New Hampshire Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
82%
the Democrats
17%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Nevada Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
60%
the Democrats
41%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?
No
93%
Yes
8%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
Michigan Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
91%
the Republicans
10%
an independent
0%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Kansas Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
66%
the Democrats
35%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Iowa Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
75%
the Republicans
26%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Illinois Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
96%
the Republicans
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Idaho Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
96%
the Democrats
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Hawaii Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
96%
the Republicans
2%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Colorado Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
97%
the Republicans
3%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra
95%
Steve Hilton
5%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova
73%
Аndrey Gyurov
25%
Nikolai Denkov
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson
89%
Ulf Kristersson
11%
Ebba Busch
1%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
How many Democratic House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
Democratic House incumbents not
76%
Democratic House incumbents not
11%
Democratic House incumbents not
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
CA-17 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
97%
the Republican Party
2%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Latvian Parliamentary Election Winner
Apvienotais Saraksts (AS)
53%
Suverēnā Vara (SV)
25%
Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV)
17%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
WI-03 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
77%
the Republican Party
22%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
WI-01 House Election Winner
the Republican Party
70%
the Democratic Party
30%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
WA-08 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
96%
the Republican Party
4%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
WA-03 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
87%
the Republican Party
13%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
VA-07 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
91%
the Republican Party
8%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
VA-02 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
82%
the Republican Party
18%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
UT-03 House Election Winner
the Republican Party
95%
the Democratic Party
6%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will the Democratic Party win the UT-02 House seat?
No
96%
Yes
5%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
TX-35 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
58%
the Republican Party
39%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will the Republican Party win the UT-01 House seat?
No
96%
Yes
4%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
TX-34 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
74%
the Republican Party
25%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
TX-32 House Election Winner
the Republican Party
78%
the Democratic Party
23%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
TX-15 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
57%
the Republican Party
44%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
TX-09 House Election Winner
the Republican Party
86%
the Democratic Party
13%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
PA-17 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
90%
the Republican Party
7%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
PA-10 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
77%
the Republican Party
24%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
PA-08 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
66%
the Republican Party
33%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
27%
exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
13%
exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections
12%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
PA-07 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
76%
the Republican Party
25%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
PA-01 House Election Winner
the Republican Party
54%
the Democratic Party
48%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
OH-09 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
74%
the Republican Party
27%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
OH-01 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
91%
the Republican Party
9%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
NC-11 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
63%
the Republican Party
35%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
NC-01 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
60%
the Republican Party
37%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
NY-22 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
93%
the Republican Party
8%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
NY-18 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
91%
the Republican Party
8%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
NY-17 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
67%
the Republican Party
35%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
NY-04 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
88%
the Republican Party
14%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
NY-03 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
92%
the Republican Party
9%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
NM-02 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
89%
the Republican Party
12%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
NJ-09 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
91%
the Republican Party
9%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
NJ-07 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
82%
the Republican Party
17%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
NH-02 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
92%
the Republican Party
8%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
NV-04 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
88%
the Republican Party
11%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
Will the Republican Party win the NV-03 House seat?
No
90%
Yes
11%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
n/a
NE-02 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
87%
the Republican Party
12%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
MT-01 House Election Winner
the Republican Party
60%
the Democratic Party
39%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
MN-02 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
93%
the Republican Party
7%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
MI-10 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
64%
the Republican Party
35%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
MI-08 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
92%
the Republican Party
8%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0
MI-07 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
62%
the Republican Party
38%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
0