Election markets, explained
Elections
Live election market movers, recent timeline explanations, and durable context for races where polling, turnout, and official calendars can move prices.
Moving now
Biggest recent shifts
Why these markets move
Election markets often react to polling, ballot access, debates, court rulings, fundraising, turnout signals, and official certification milestones. PolySays separates confirmed public catalysts from unexplained repricing.
Signals to watch
- Polling and turnout releases
- Court and ballot-access deadlines
- Debates, primaries, and certification dates
What changed recently
Recent market explanations
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Yes moved higher from 3.2% to 9.0% (+5.8 points) between 2026-07-14T10:00:04.789Z and 2026-07-15T10:00:04.789Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
AOC’s 2028 Democratic nominee odds rose 3.1 points over 24 hours
Polymarket’s yes price for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez moved from 13.65% to 16.75% between July 6 and July 7, 2026. The supplied sources show renewed 2028 primary coverage, but they do not confirm a single cause for the move.
Jon Ossoff’s 2028 Democratic nominee odds rose 4.55 points in 24 hours
Jon Ossoff’s Polymarket yes price moved from 10.45% to 15.0% between July 6 and July 7, 2026, a 4.55-point increase. The supplied sources note renewed 2028 Democratic nominee coverage, but do not confirm a single driver.
AOC’s 2028 Democratic nominee odds rose 3 points over the last 24 hours
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s yes price moved from 12.55% to 15.6% between July 6 and July 7, a 3.05-point increase. The move coincided with fresh 2028 primary coverage and polling links, but the supplied sources do not confirm a single cause.
Haley Stevens odds fall 6.3 points as Michigan race tightens around McMorrow exit
Haley Stevens’ implied win probability fell from 24.15% to 17.85% over the 24 hours ending July 6, 2026, alongside reporting on Mallory McMorrow’s exit and a sharper progressive-versus-moderate framing of the Michigan Democratic Senate primary.
Abdul El-Sayed surges as McMorrow exits Michigan Senate contest
Abdul El-Sayed’s implied odds rose from 76.0% to 82.5% over the 24 hours ending July 6, 2026, after Mallory McMorrow ended her Senate bid and coverage framed the race around a sharper progressive-versus-moderate split.
Elections
Latest news for active markets
Showing 100 of 100 matched markets.
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Latest: The market price for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s 2028 Democratic nomination yes share rose from 13.65% to 16.75%, a +3.1 point move over the stated 24-hour window.
Gavin Newsom
20%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
15%
Jon Ossoff
12%
Largest 24h move
Kamala Harris +1%
Volume
1.5M
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Latest: Stevens’ implied win probability declined 6.3 points in 24 hours, from 24.15% to 17.85%, while news flow centered on McMorrow’s withdrawal and the reframe of the primary.
Abdul El-Sayed
83%
Haley Stevens
18%
Mallory McMorrow
0%
Largest 24h move
Abdul El-Sayed +7%
Volume
7.5K
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Latest: Ossoff’s 2028 presidential Yes price climbed 3.25 points, from 5.6% to 8.85%, in the reported 24-hour period.
JD Vance
20%
Marco Rubio
14%
Gavin Newsom
12%
Largest 24h move
Pete Buttigieg -0%
Volume
1.5M
Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Latest: Crockett’s Yes price moved from 0.05% to 38.85%, a 38.8-point surge between the supplied snapshots.
Jamie Davis Jr.
97%
Gary Crockett
39%
Tracie Burke
0%
Largest 24h move
Jabarie Walker -3%
Volume
10
FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner
Latest: The market repriced by -11.7 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
Lois Frankel
89%
Victoria Doyle
7%
Jared Moskowitz
4%
Largest 24h move
Victoria Doyle -12%
Volume
89
WI-03 House Election Winner
Latest: The market repriced by -14.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
the Democratic Party
63%
the Republican Party
34%
Largest 24h move
the Republican Party -14%
Volume
8.6
Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election
Latest: The market repriced by -8.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
Fernando Dias da Costa
17%
Siga Batista
11%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló
4%
Largest 24h move
Fernando Dias da Costa -8%
Volume
94.1
Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary Winner
Latest: The market repriced by +6.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
Raymond McKay
94%
Allen Waters
3%
Largest 24h move
Raymond McKay +7%
Volume
231.8
NE-02 House Election Winner
Latest: The market repriced by +6.0 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
the Democratic Party
83%
the Republican Party
19%
Largest 24h move
the Democratic Party +5%
Volume
609.6
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
40%
Benjamin Netanyahu
35%
Naftali Bennett
14%
Largest 24h move
Gadi Eizenkot +3%
Volume
640.7K
Next French Presidential Election
Jordan Bardella
25%
Édouard Philippe
19%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
12%
Largest 24h move
Édouard Philippe -1%
Volume
343.1K
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election
64%
New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election
31%
the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election
2%
Largest 24h move
United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election +2%
Volume
314.8K
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?
No
100%
Yes
0%
Leader 24h
+0%
Volume
72.3K
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier Becerra
89%
Steve Hilton
8%
Tom Steyer
0%
Largest 24h move
Steve Hilton -2%
Volume
35.1K
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?
No
97%
Yes
3%
Leader 24h
+2%
Volume
26.3K
Florida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Byron Donalds
95%
James Fishback
6%
Jimmy Patronis
0%
Largest 24h move
Byron Donalds 0%
Volume
6.2K
Bulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana Iotova
47%
Аndrey Gyurov
28%
Nikolai Denkov
5%
Largest 24h move
Аndrey Gyurov -13%
Volume
2.8K
Iowa Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
62%
the Republicans
37%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats -5%
Volume
2.7K
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
Yes
63%
No
37%
Leader 24h
-12%
Volume
2.3K
Kentucky Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
91%
the Democrats
9%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans +2%
Volume
1.9K
Alaska Governor Election Winner
Tom Begich
31%
Bernadette Wilson
24%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
15%
Largest 24h move
Treg Taylor +1%
Volume
1.6K
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
84%
the Republicans
14%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats +3%
Volume
1.1K
North Carolina Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
86%
the Republicans
14%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats 0%
Volume
1.1K
Louisiana Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
90%
the Democrats
10%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats -1%
Volume
1.1K
Alaska Senate Election Winner
Mary Peltola
65%
Dan Sullivan
32%
Richard Grayson
0%
Largest 24h move
Dan Sullivan -7%
Volume
1.1K
NH-02 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
86%
the Republican Party
13%
Largest 24h move
the Republican Party +5%
Volume
899.4
Maine Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
62%
the Republicans
39%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats 0%
Volume
890
MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner
Jeremy Moss
95%
Aisha Farooqi
2%
Andy Levin
2%
Largest 24h move
Don Ufford -3%
Volume
840.1
Texas Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
57%
the Democrats
44%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans 0%
Volume
731.7
Nebraska Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
60%
an independent
39%
the Democrats
3%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans -1%
Volume
647
Ohio Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
50%
the Democrats
50%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats +5%
Volume
574.6
Tennessee Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
94%
the Democrats
3%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans +1%
Volume
559.5
AZ-03 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
95%
the Republican Party
6%
Largest 24h move
the Democratic Party +1%
Volume
559.1
Georgia Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
87%
the Republicans
14%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans -3%
Volume
497.8
Michigan Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
83%
the Republicans
16%
an independent
3%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats -1%
Volume
459.5
Minnesota Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
92%
the Republicans
8%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats 0%
Volume
458.8
New York Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
88%
the Republicans
11%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans -1%
Volume
438.5
NY-18 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
87%
the Republican Party
7%
Largest 24h move
the Democratic Party -1%
Volume
425.7
Rhode Island Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
93%
an independent
5%
the Republicans
2%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats +1%
Volume
384.8
Oregon Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
94%
the Republicans
6%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans -1%
Volume
347.2
Tennessee Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Jerri Green
79%
Carnita Atwater
8%
Kevin Lee McCants
8%
Largest 24h move
Jerri Green +3%
Volume
311.3
MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Cori Bush
63%
Wesley Bell
34%
Largest 24h move
Wesley Bell -25%
Volume
308.9
Nevada Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
55%
the Republicans
46%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats +2%
Volume
301.6
NJ-05 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
84%
the Republican Party
7%
Largest 24h move
the Republican Party -25%
Volume
285.5
VA-02 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
80%
the Republican Party
17%
Largest 24h move
the Democratic Party +7%
Volume
208
Alabama Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
95%
the Democrats
6%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans 0%
Volume
200
Michigan Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
70%
the Republicans
28%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats 0%
Volume
188.3
Texas Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
90%
the Democrats
10%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans +4%
Volume
179.6
Iowa Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
61%
the Democrats
40%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans +1%
Volume
131
Montana Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
79%
an independent
22%
the Democrats
1%
Largest 24h move
an independent +1%
Volume
106.1
NH-01 Republican Primary Winner
Anthony DiLorenzo
72%
Hollie Noveletsky
18%
Melissa Bailey
6%
Largest 24h move
Hollie Noveletsky +2%
Volume
103.4
UT-02 House Election Winner
the Republican Party
89%
the Democratic Party
5%
Largest 24h move
the Democratic Party -10%
Volume
95.7
OH-13 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
88%
the Republican Party
11%
Largest 24h move
the Republican Party +3%
Volume
92
Delaware Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
94%
the Republicans
6%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats +1%
Volume
86
New Hampshire Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
78%
the Democrats
24%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats -7%
Volume
78
Rhode Island Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
94%
the Republicans
6%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats +1%
Volume
72.4
New Mexico Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
87%
the Republicans
14%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats -1%
Volume
71.6
Somaliland Parliamentary Election Winner
there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027
90%
the Waddani Party (Somaliland National Party)
8%
the Justice and Welfare Party (UCID)
3%
Largest 24h move
there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027 0%
Volume
71.4
Ethiopia Parliamentary Election Winner
the Prosperity Party (Prosperity)
99%
the Gedeo People's Democratic Party (GPDP)
3%
the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA)
2%
Largest 24h move
the Gedeo People's Democratic Party (GPDP) +3%
Volume
70.9
NH-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Stefany Shaheen
75%
Maura Sullivan
19%
Carleigh Beriont
2%
Largest 24h move
Heath Howard -11%
Volume
68.9
Ohio Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
55%
the Republicans
44%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats -1%
Volume
58.3
IA-01 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
75%
the Republican Party
22%
Largest 24h move
the Republican Party -4%
Volume
55.9
South Carolina Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
83%
the Democrats
19%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats +2%
Volume
51.2
South Carolina Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
91%
the Democrats
9%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats -1%
Volume
38.6
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
No
53%
Yes
47%
Leader 24h
—
Volume
35
PA-07 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
74%
the Republican Party
23%
Largest 24h move
the Republican Party +2%
Volume
30.6
Berlin State Election Winner
CDU
35%
Grüne
22%
Linke
22%
Largest 24h move
SPD -0%
Volume
29.1
Illinois Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
93%
the Republicans
7%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats +1%
Volume
25
Kansas Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
65%
the Democrats
30%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans +1%
Volume
23.6
AL-04 House Election Winner
the Republican Party
94%
the Democratic Party
5%
Largest 24h move
the Democratic Party -0%
Volume
21
Massachusetts Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
95%
the Republicans
6%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans +1%
Volume
20.5
OH-01 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
79%
the Republican Party
22%
Largest 24h move
the Republican Party -4%
Volume
19.4
TX-18 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
95%
the Republican Party
5%
Largest 24h move
the Democratic Party +18%
Volume
19.1
NV-03 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
86%
the Republican Party
14%
Largest 24h move
the Republican Party -21%
Volume
17.9
Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
Democratic Party
81%
Republican Party
18%
Largest 24h move
Democratic Party 0%
Volume
16.3
TX-34 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
68%
the Republican Party
28%
Largest 24h move
the Democratic Party -6%
Volume
16.2
CA-04 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
95%
the Republican Party
5%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
15.3
Florida Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
82%
the Democrats
19%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats -1%
Volume
15
MO-05 House Election Winner
the Republican Party
76%
the Democratic Party
25%
Largest 24h move
the Republican Party +7%
Volume
14.7
AZ-07 House Election Winner
the Democratic Party
94%
the Republican Party
6%
Largest 24h move
—
Volume
13.3
Colorado Governor Election Winner
the Democrats
92%
the Republicans
6%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans -2%
Volume
12.8
South Dakota Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
90%
the Democrats
10%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats +0%
Volume
10
Kansas Governor Republican Primary Winner
Ty Masterson
77%
Vicki Schmidt
8%
Scott Schwab
4%
Largest 24h move
Vicki Schmidt -13%
Volume
9.2
MI-10 Republican Primary Winner
Mike Bouchard
77%
Robert Lulgjuraj
14%
Justin Kirk
1%
Largest 24h move
Robert Lulgjuraj -2%
Volume
9
Tennessee Governor Republican Primary Winner
Marsha Blackburn
96%
John Rose
2%
Monty Fritts
0%
Largest 24h move
John Rose -1%
Volume
5.4
New Jersey Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
95%
the Republicans
4%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats +1%
Volume
5.4
ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?
Democratic Party
81%
Republican Party
16%
Largest 24h move
Democratic Party 0%
Volume
5.1
Idaho Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
96%
the Democrats
3%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans +1%
Volume
3.6
Nebraska Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
82%
the Democrats
16%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans +2%
Volume
3.2
Vermont Governor Election Winner
the Republicans
85%
the Democrats
13%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans +2%
Volume
3
South Dakota Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
93%
the Democrats
7%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats -0%
Volume
1.1
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
the Democrats
59%
the Republicans
41%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats 0%
Volume
0
Mississippi Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
87%
the Democrats
14%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans 0%
Volume
0
Wyoming Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
95%
the Democrats
5%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans 0%
Volume
0
West Virginia Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
95%
the Democrats
4%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans -0%
Volume
0
Virginia Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
93%
the Republicans
7%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans +1%
Volume
0
New Mexico Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
95%
the Republicans
3%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats +0%
Volume
0
Massachusetts Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
96%
the Republicans
4%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans -0%
Volume
0
Kansas Senate Election Winner
the Republicans
83%
the Democrats
18%
Largest 24h move
the Republicans 0%
Volume
0
Illinois Senate Election Winner
the Democrats
95%
the Republicans
2%
Largest 24h move
the Democrats -0%
Volume
0