Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- India" before 2027 28%
- Largest 24h move
- Australia" before 2027 -4%
- 24h volume
- 785.9
- Liquidity
- 160.9K
Top candidates
17 outcomes
India" before 2027
28%
+1% 24h
United Kingdom" before 2027
24%
-1% 24h
Taiwan" before 2027
20%
-0% 24h
Israel" before 2027
19%
0% 24h
Mexico" before 2027
17%
+1% 24h
Show all outcomes
South Korea" before 2027
17%
+4%
Australia" before 2027
17%
-4%
Canada" before 2027
14%
+1%
Indonesia" before 2027
14%
0%
Vietnam" before 2027
14%
+1%
South Africa" before 2027
13%
-0%
Russia" before 2027
11%
-2%
European Union" before 2027
9%
0%
Brazil" before 2027
9%
0%
Japan" before 2027
9%
0%
Pakistan" before 2027
9%
0%
Argentina" before 2027
8%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest India" before 2027 probability of 22%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027 moved lower from 23.5% to 17.0% (-6.5 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:15.508Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:15.508Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027" outcome in "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" made a sharp move from 23.5% to 17.0% between 2026-06-23T19:22:15.508Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:15.508Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by -6.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.