Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027 66%
- Largest 24h move
- Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027 -7%
- 24h volume
- 6.3K
- Liquidity
- 81.5K
Top candidates
16 outcomes
Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027
66%
0% 24h
Russell Vought leave the Trump administration before 2027
50%
0% 24h
Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027
49%
-3% 24h
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027
48%
0% 24h
David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027
47%
+1% 24h
Show all outcomes
Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027
44%
-7%
Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027
37%
-2%
John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027
35%
+6%
Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027
34%
-2%
Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027
33%
-1%
Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027
30%
-1%
Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027
29%
-1%
Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027
25%
0%
Tom Homan leave the Trump administration before 2027
17%
0%
Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027
11%
0%
Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027
10%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Read the complete resolution rules
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027 probability of 5%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
No major update has changed the story in 20 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027 moved higher from 31.5% to 37.0% (+5.5 points) between 2026-06-23T19:22:15.505Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:15.505Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027" outcome in "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?" made a sharp move from 31.5% to 37.0% between 2026-06-23T19:22:15.505Z and 2026-06-24T19:22:15.505Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by +5.5 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.