Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
- Current leader
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy 10%
- Largest 24h move
- UNRWA -1%
- 24h volume
- 79.7K
- Liquidity
- 2M
Top candidates
20 outcomes
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
10%
-0% 24h
Donald Trump
8%
+0% 24h
UNRWA
7%
-1% 24h
Yulia Navalnaya
7%
0% 24h
Pope Leo XIV
5%
-0% 24h
Show all outcomes
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
4%
+0%
the International Court of Justice
2%
-0%
Narendra Modi
2%
0%
Greta Thunberg
2%
0%
Xi Jinping
1%
+0%
Ahmed al-Sharaa
1%
0%
António Guterres
1%
+0%
Mohammed bin Salman
1%
0%
Elon Musk
1%
0%
Charlie Kirk
1%
0%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
1%
0%
Julian Assange
1%
0%
Khaled Mashal
1%
0%
Vladimir Putin
0%
0%
Benjamin Netanyahu
0%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner.
If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual.
Read the complete resolution rules
If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Living timeline · 0 significant updates
See the evidence and market movement as the story develops.
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest Volodymyr Zelenskyy probability of 8%.
Story so far
Still buildingNo event-level story summary has been written yet.
There is not enough public context for a useful story yet.
Latest update
No updates yet
The timeline is waiting for a meaningful movement.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- No open questions have been logged yet.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline