Harvey Weinstein prison time?
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v.
- Current leader
- no prison time 94%
- Largest 24h move
- no prison time -2%
- 24h volume
- 4.4K
- Liquidity
- 21.8K
Top candidates
6 outcomes
no prison time
94%
-2% 24h
less than 5 years in prison
1%
0% 24h
between 5 and 10 years in prison
1%
0% 24h
more than 30 years in prison
1%
-0% 24h
between 20 and 30 years in prison
0%
-0% 24h
Show all outcomes
between 10 and 20 years in prison
0%
0%
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves No
If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 10 significant updates
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest no prison time probability of 94%.
Story so far
Needs a refreshThe market for Harvey Weinstein being sentenced to no prison time has moved sharply upward, rising from 83.95% on June 25, 2026 to 95.45% on June 26, 2026. The available context suggests fresh legal coverage may have contributed, but no single trigger is confirmed in the provided inputs.
No major update has changed the story in 19 days.
Latest update
Sharp move with no clear public catalyst yet
Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time moved higher from 93.3% to 98.7% (+5.3 points) between 2026-07-07T20:00:05.482Z and 2026-07-08T20:00:05.482Z; there is no clear public catalyst yet.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- Fresh coverage of Weinstein's legal status may have influenced the move, but the specific catalyst is not confirmed.
Unresolved questions
- What exact legal or court development, if any, drove the surge?
- Was the move caused by new reporting, interpretation of existing case information, or broader market repricing?
- Does the latest pricing reflect a durable shift or a temporary spike in thin volume?
People and institutions to watch
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The "Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time" outcome in "Harvey Weinstein prison time?" made a sharp move from 93.3% to 98.7% between 2026-07-07T20:00:05.482Z and 2026-07-08T20:00:05.482Z. PolySays has not found a clear public news source, official statement, or other confirmed catalyst that explains the timing of this move. The move may reflect private interpretation, social discussion, liquidity conditions, or information that has not yet appeared in reliable public sources.
What changed
The market repriced by +5.3 points, but the public narrative has not caught up with a confirmed explanation.
What to watch next
Watch for official statements, later reporting, social posts that become verifiable public context, and whether volume or the new probability level holds in later snapshots.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.